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Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")” (1998-10) contests E01. Hanson's main objection to an intelligence explosion: diminishing returns to self-improvement, illustrated by schooling and factory learning curves. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1998-10 · publication Wording attested 2000-11-17. Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded. Role Earliest located in tier 2, Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Accepts the self-redesign mechanism as stated and argues that its returns diminish, so intelligence does not explode. Tier Tier 2. Short-form comment in an online symposium: tier 2 by form under the rule of 2026-10-11/12. Hanson had economist standing by 1998 (see the record of his 1998 journal article); tier 2 follows from the form, not the author. Scope and limits Hanson's own view. Tier 2. Wording attested from the 2000 capture, signed ©1998.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Some Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept") ↗ Online symposium of comments on Vernor Vinge's singularity essay · 1998-10
Archived copy, captured 2000-11-17: Some Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept") ↗
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Source excerpt “If early work focuses on the easiest improvements, however, the task of becoming more productive can get harder as the easy wins are exhausted.” Location in source Robin Hanson, comment "Some Skepticism" (signed ©1998), in "Comments on Vinge's Singularity", Wayback capture 2000; para. beginning "If early work focuses"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-15
Source details and check notes Authors Robin Hanson Version Wayback capture of http://hanson.gmu.edu/vc.html (2000-11-17); compared with the 2001-01-11 capture. Only Hanson's comment is quoted. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 e54a679e31374bf4cb71e49287f363be63976a4bb3f7d180e98f89bccd64cf2c). Published version: Hanson, R. (1998, October). Some skepticism. In A critical discussion of Vinge's singularity concept. Extropy Online. Venue as listed in the author's December 2000 vita; the Extropy Online page itself was not retrieved. Hosted on the author's site; the page carries "©1998 by Robin Hanson". Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2000-11-17: Some Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept") ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2000-11-17. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Robin Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")”, Online symposium of comments on Vernor Vinge's singularity essay, hosted on the author's site; the page carries "©1998 by Robin Hanson", 1998-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-05 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (24 words) matched the Wayback capture 20001117154900 (SHA-256 e54a679e31374bf4cb71e49287f363be63976a4bb3f7d180e98f89bccd64cf2c) in the preparer's verification of 2026-10-11. It was not re-read in the correction pass of 2026-10-15 or at admission on 2026-10-16, because web.archive.org refused connections from the cloud environment. Admitted on the basis of the cross-family GPT check of 2026-10-15, which retrieved the same capture (Memento timestamp and SHA-256 equal to the recorded ones) and found the quotation matching. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. Copyright line "©1998 by Robin Hanson" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as "Extropy Online, Oct. 1998".
Record ID ec-e01-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-c