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Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E01. Abstract sentence contrasting automation of production (self-replication) with automation of R&D (self-improvement). Citing the high capital share in AI R&D (Besiroglu et al., 2024), the authors describe a feedback in which automating AI R&D speeds AI capability growth, then cite calibrated models of this feedback (Erdil et al. 2025; Lifland et al. 2025) as having 'speculative elements'. In the risk subsection, the authors contrast a scenario of acceleration from R&D automation alone with scenarios of automated physical production, each with distinct safety concerns. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2023-10 · publication Wording attested 2026-04. Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source nber-w31815-2023. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope of the passage A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim. Tier Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI). Conditions (E01-28) Within the reviewed growth models; acceleration not sufficient 'in isolation'. (E01-29) 'could'; hedged 'in some sense'. (E01-31) Scenario; 'potential for'. Scope and limits (First passage) Wording checked against the April 2026 revision of NBER w31815 (first issued October 2023); whether this wording appears in the October 2023 version was not checked, so it is attested only from April 2026. 'Self-improve' is the authors' gloss on automated R&D in growth models, where the improved object is general technology; the claim is about growth, and the abstract says R&D automation alone may not produce the transformation. (Second passage) Wording checked against the April 2026 revision of NBER w31815 (first issued October 2023); whether this wording appears in the October 2023 version was not checked, so it is attested only from April 2026. The passage cites 2024–2025 work, so this wording is not in the October 2023 version. 'In some sense' hedges the claim; the predictions of near-complete R&D automation are attributed to the cited models, not asserted by the authors. (Third passage) Wording checked against the April 2026 revision of NBER w31815 (first issued October 2023); whether this wording appears in the October 2023 version was not checked, so it is attested only from April 2026. Names a scenario ('software-only singularity') as a risk profile; the term is placed in quotation marks and not developed in the formal models.
The evidence 03 primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
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Source excerpt · shown only with its context “Automating R&D (so that machines can self-improve) would accelerate the transformation, but may not produce it in isolation.” Read it with this context. The model's conditions and the author's own assessment.
Why: A model scenario, not the author's own forecast (maintainer decision D3).
Location in source pdf p.2; Abstract
Machine-checked · 2026-10-16
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Current NBER PDF, the April 2026 revision. The October 2023 version was retrieved separately from a Wayback capture of 2023-11-29 (source nber-w31815-2023); their wording differs. SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb. Version a reader would cite, or full text, not retrieved. Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2023). Economic growth under transformative AI (NBER Working Paper No. 31815, original October 2023 version). https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-28 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (18 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day. primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt · shown only with its context “suggests that capital is, in some sense, contributing significantly to its own improvement. As AI R&D is automated ever more fully, AI capabilities could advance ever more rapidly.” Read it with this context. Begins mid-sentence: the subject is the high capital share in AI R&D (Besiroglu et al., 2024); the following sentence calls the calibrated models of this feedback speculative in part.
Why: GPT cross-family check 2026-10-14, accepted 2026-10-15.
Location in source pdf p.29; §6 Conclusion, 'From AI to automation'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-16
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Current NBER PDF, the April 2026 revision. The October 2023 version was retrieved separately from a Wayback capture of 2023-11-29 (source nber-w31815-2023); their wording differs. SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb. Version a reader would cite, or full text, not retrieved. Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2023). Economic growth under transformative AI (NBER Working Paper No. 31815, original October 2023 version). https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-29 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (28 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day. primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “a “software-only singularity” driven purely by R&D automation presents unique challenges through its potential for rapid, unobservable acceleration beneath conventional economic indicators” Location in source pdf p.30; §6 Conclusion, 'Preparing for dangerous AI'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-16
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Current NBER PDF, the April 2026 revision. The October 2023 version was retrieved separately from a Wayback capture of 2023-11-29 (source nber-w31815-2023); their wording differs. SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb. Version a reader would cite, or full text, not retrieved. Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2023). Economic growth under transformative AI (NBER Working Paper No. 31815, original October 2023 version). https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-31 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (22 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Cover "October 2023, Revised April 2026". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated.
Record ID ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a