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Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E01. Opening paragraph: the authors say future models may reach AGI and, unlike earlier technologies, could automate R&D itself. The clause names AI creating better AI systems. The authors characterise the 'singularity' hypothesis and add that absent current economic effects cannot refute it because the theory predicts little advance warning. Second of the review's 'robust findings': automating R&D in isolation has ambiguous growth effects. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2023-10 · publication Wording attested 2026-04. Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source nber-w31815-2023. Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope of the passage A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim. Missing element (E01-27) AI building better AI, without stated acceleration of capabilities. (E01-30) Describes a hypothesis held by others and what it predicts; it does not itself state that AI improves AI, and the authors neither endorse nor reject the hypothesis here. (E01-32) About output growth from automated research in general (G02 territory), not about AI improving AI; it bounds the acceleration rather than rejecting it. Tier Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI). Conditions (E01-27) Conditional on future models reaching AGI ('may reach'). (E01-32) Automating R&D in isolation; depends on parallelizability and research constraints. Scope and limits (First passage) Wording checked against the April 2026 revision of NBER w31815 (first issued October 2023); whether this wording appears in the October 2023 version was not checked, so it is attested only from April 2026. A possibility statement, not a forecast; the formal models treat R&D generically (technology A), not AI capability specifically. (Second passage) The passage reports a view the author does not state as their own. Wording checked against the April 2026 revision of NBER w31815 (first issued October 2023); whether this wording appears in the October 2023 version was not checked, so it is attested only from April 2026. Kept bears-on on 2026-10-15 against the GPT check (articulates): the AI-improving-AI statement is the preceding sentence, recorded as articulating E01; these words state only the hypothesis's prediction for economic conditions. (Third passage) Wording checked against the April 2026 revision of NBER w31815 (first issued October 2023); whether this wording appears in the October 2023 version was not checked, so it is attested only from April 2026.
The evidence 03 primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
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Source excerpt · shown only with its context “could fully automate the process of research and development itself, including the creation of better AI systems.” Read it with this context. Starts inside a conditional sentence: "Future models may reach the level of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)…".
Why: GPT cross-family check 2026-10-14, accepted 2026-10-15.
Location in source pdf p.3; §1 Introduction, first paragraph
Machine-checked · 2026-10-16
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Current NBER PDF, the April 2026 revision. The October 2023 version was retrieved separately from a Wayback capture of 2023-11-29 (source nber-w31815-2023); their wording differs. SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb. Version a reader would cite, or full text, not retrieved. Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2023). Economic growth under transformative AI (NBER Working Paper No. 31815, original October 2023 version). https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-27 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (17 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day. Admission change, 2026-10-16: a research-pack passage code in reader-facing text was replaced with a plain description of the passage it pointed to (reader-text rule of 2026-10-15). The pack is unchanged. primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
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Source excerpt · shown only with its context “A central characteristic of the R&D-initiated “singularity” hypothesis is its prediction of rapid, nearly discontinuous transformation in economic conditions.” Read it with this context. The 'hypothesis' is the AI-R&D feedback described in the preceding sentences; authors draw only the inference that absence of current evidence cannot refute it. They neither endorse nor reject it.
Why: Fresh-context audit (A2) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.
Location in source pdf p.29; §6 Conclusion, 'From AI to automation'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-16
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Current NBER PDF, the April 2026 revision. The October 2023 version was retrieved separately from a Wayback capture of 2023-11-29 (source nber-w31815-2023); their wording differs. SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb. Version a reader would cite, or full text, not retrieved. Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2023). Economic growth under transformative AI (NBER Working Paper No. 31815, original October 2023 version). https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-30 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (19 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day. Admission change, 2026-10-16: a research-pack passage code in reader-facing text was replaced with a plain description of the passage it pointed to (reader-text rule of 2026-10-15). The pack is unchanged. primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt · shown only with its context “it may accelerate growth if automated research proves highly parallelizable, but it could also leave growth rates bounded if fundamental constraints on the research process persist.” Read it with this context. The model's conditions and the author's own assessment.
Why: A model scenario, not the author's own forecast (maintainer decision D3).
Location in source pdf p.4; §1 Introduction, summary of findings
Machine-checked · 2026-10-16
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Current NBER PDF, the April 2026 revision. The October 2023 version was retrieved separately from a Wayback capture of 2023-11-29 (source nber-w31815-2023); their wording differs. SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb. Version a reader would cite, or full text, not retrieved. Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2023). Economic growth under transformative AI (NBER Working Paper No. 31815, original October 2023 version). https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E01-32 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (26 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 06dda75180302720e0843a180c00d04fa99e38db0f5d6d4e06d7f29388a115bb) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Cover "October 2023, Revised April 2026". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated.
Record ID ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b