Claim: Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI…

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Claim and evidence

Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)articulates ↓Economics’ engagement with superintelligence, AGI and the singularity

Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E05. Closing their review, Trammell and Korinek say that existential risk from AI, central in futurist discussion, is almost absent from economics, because existing growth models offer no obvious mechanism for it. The authors attribute the profession's inattention to growth singularities to a modelling norm tied to the Kaldor facts, not to the models themselves. Footnote dating Sandberg's 2013 overview of singularity models to before mainstream economists' engagement with transformative AI.

Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editorStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2023-10 · publication
Wording attested: 2023-11-29. Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF.
Role: Articulation
Register (kind of text): Nonfiction
Tier: Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists.

Scope and limits(First passage) October 2023 version (Wayback capture 2023-11-29). The authors' characterisation of the literature, not a census: Korinek and Stiglitz (2017) and Gans (2018), both recorded under E03, already treat control or catastrophe. The next sentence says the absence is "not primarily 'by choice'"; footnote 38 notes generic catastrophic-risk models (Martin and Pindyck 2015; Aschenbrenner 2020). The April 2026 revision replaces this sentence: existential-risk valuation "has generated substantial recent analysis" (Jones 2024, 2025; Shulman and Thornley 2025). Corrected 2026-10-15. (Second passage) October 2023 version (Wayback capture 2023-11-29). 'These possibilities' are permanent shifts in growth rates and singularities with ever-increasing growth rates. Articulates E05 since 2026-10-15: an explicit statement of the profession's inattention to AI-driven growth singularities, the same topic as Nordhaus's 2015 remark recorded under E05 ("Singularity" as growth acceleration driven by computation and AI). (Third passage) October 2023 version. The sentence begins: Sandberg (2013) presented an 'overview of models of technological singularity'.

The evidence 03

primary sourceSupports the claim

Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)

NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10

Archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt · shown only with its context

“With the recent exceptions of Jones (2023) and Acemoglu and Lensman (2023), treatments of existential risk from AI appear to be absent from the economics literature.”

Read it with this context. Exceptions named (Jones 2023; Acemoglu and Lensman 2023); footnote 38 notes AI x-risk is sometimes listed in generic catastrophic-risk models (Martin and Pindyck 2015; Aschenbrenner 2020); next sentence: absence 'not primarily "by choice"' but for lack of a mechanism in existing growth models. The April 2026 revision drops this statement and says the economic valuation of x-risk mitigation 'has generated substantial recent analysis (Jones, 2024, 2025; Shulman and Thornley, 2025)'.

Why: Fresh-context audit (A2) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.

Location in source pdf page 57; concluding section

Machine-checked · 2026-10-15

Source details and check notes

Authors: Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek
Version: Wayback capture 20231129164044 (id) of the NBER PDF; the October 2023 version, whose wording differs from the April 2026 revision (source nber-w31815). Retrieved 2026-10-11. SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-11
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version). An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2023-11-29. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-11.
Attribution: Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Candidate pack passage E05-18 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (26 words) matched the Wayback capture 20231129164044 (SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe) in the preparer's verification of 2026-10-11. It was not re-read in the correction pass of 2026-10-15 or at admission on 2026-10-16, because web.archive.org refused connections from the cloud environment. Admitted on the basis of the cross-family GPT check of 2026-10-15, which retrieved the same capture (Memento timestamp and SHA-256 equal to the recorded ones) and found the quotation matching. Admission change, 2026-10-16: a research-pack passage code in reader-facing text was replaced with a plain description of the passage it pointed to (reader-text rule of 2026-10-15). The pack is unchanged.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)

NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10

Archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt · shown only with its context

“the lack of attention to these possibilities by most of the economics profession is not a necessary consequence of all plausible economic models. Rather, it is the result of a widespread norm of focusing only on model scenarios in which long-run growth is roughly constant”

Read it with this context. Referent of 'these possibilities' (sentence before: 'permanent shifts in growth rates and singularities that involve ever-increasing growth rates'). The neglect claim is about growth theory's Kaldor norm.

Why: Fresh-context audit (A2) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.

Location in source pdf page 56; concluding section

Machine-checked · 2026-10-15

Source details and check notes

Authors: Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek
Version: Wayback capture 20231129164044 (id) of the NBER PDF; the October 2023 version, whose wording differs from the April 2026 revision (source nber-w31815). Retrieved 2026-10-11. SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-11
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version). An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2023-11-29. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-11.
Attribution: Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Candidate pack passage E05-19 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (45 words) matched the Wayback capture 20231129164044 (SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe) in the preparer's verification of 2026-10-11. It was not re-read in the correction pass of 2026-10-15 or at admission on 2026-10-16, because web.archive.org refused connections from the cloud environment. Admitted on the basis of the cross-family GPT check of 2026-10-15, which retrieved the same capture (Memento timestamp and SHA-256 equal to the recorded ones) and found the quotation matching. Admission change, 2026-10-16: a research-pack passage code in reader-facing text was replaced with a plain description of the passage it pointed to (reader-text rule of 2026-10-15). The pack is unchanged.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)

NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10

Archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt · shown only with its context

“a decade ago, before mainstream economists started to analyze the transformative potential of AI.”

Read it with this context. A sentence fragment; its subject is Sandberg's (2013) overview of models of technological singularity. A qualified assessment of mainstream modelling, not a claim that no economist addressed the topic earlier.

Why: GPT cross-family check 2026-10-14, accepted 2026-10-15.

Location in source pdf page 7; footnote 2

Machine-checked · 2026-10-15

Source details and check notes

Authors: Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek
Version: Wayback capture 20231129164044 (id) of the NBER PDF; the October 2023 version, whose wording differs from the April 2026 revision (source nber-w31815). Retrieved 2026-10-11. SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-11
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version). An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2023-11-29. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-11.
Attribution: Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Candidate pack passage E05-20 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (14 words) matched the Wayback capture 20231129164044 (SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe) in the preparer's verification of 2026-10-11. It was not re-read in the correction pass of 2026-10-15 or at admission on 2026-10-16, because web.archive.org refused connections from the cloud environment. Admitted on the basis of the cross-family GPT check of 2026-10-15, which retrieved the same capture (Memento timestamp and SHA-256 equal to the recorded ones) and found the quotation matching.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor. An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.

Date. Cover "October 2023".

Record ID ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a

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