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Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) bears on E05. The review opens by dating economists' awareness of AI's transformative potential to Simon's prediction. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2023-10 · publication Wording attested 2023-11-29. Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF. Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element A claim about economists' long-standing understanding, not a statement that the topic is new or neglected; it qualifies an 'only recently' reading. Tier Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists. Scope and limits October 2023 version. Dates Simon's prediction to 1960; Nordhaus (2015) and Armer (1966) relay a similar statement from Simon's 1965 book. Simon's original was not retrieved.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version) ↗ NBER Working Paper 31815 · 2023-10
Archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version) ↗
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Source excerpt “At least since Herbert Simon’s 1960 prediction that artificial intelligence would soon be able to replace all human labor, many economists have understood that sufficiently advanced artificial intelligence (AI) could transform the structure of the global economy.” Location in source pdf page 4; Introduction
Machine-checked · 2026-10-15
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Wayback capture 20231129164044 (id) of the NBER PDF; the October 2023 version, whose wording differs from the April 2026 revision (source nber-w31815). Retrieved 2026-10-11. SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2023-11-29: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version) ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2023-11-29. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-11.Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)”, NBER Working Paper 31815, 2023-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage E05-21 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (37 words) matched the Wayback capture 20231129164044 (SHA-256 0374b709682aada8e05cd3af7e17cd6ec1b71d2d7ab4b8fe8969d2791c42dbbe) in the preparer's verification of 2026-10-11. It was not re-read in the correction pass of 2026-10-15 or at admission on 2026-10-16, because web.archive.org refused connections from the cloud environment. Admitted on the basis of the cross-family GPT check of 2026-10-15, which retrieved the same capture (Memento timestamp and SHA-256 equal to the recorded ones) and found the quotation matching. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Cover "October 2023".
Record ID ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b