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Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share” (2021-02-04) bears on G02. Infers from historical data that returns to existing knowledge in research have been below the threshold at which a constant research effort produces a finite-time singularity. Copy claim link
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Date 2021-02-04 · publication Wording attested 2021-06-25. Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04). Claimed date 2020-10. Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved. Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth. Tier Tier 1. Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics. Scope and limits The next sentence of the checked 2021 text gives the Bloom et al. (2020) estimate "ϕ = −2.1" (per the cross-family check; the 2023 GPI revision has the same sentence). The NBER version (2023) reads "technology growth rate" where this text has "productivity growth rate" and rounds the estimate to about −2. Corrected after the cross-family check: the earlier qualification said the NBER version added the estimate.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share ↗ Global Priorities Institute Working Paper No. 8-2020 · 2021-02-04
Archived copy, captured 2021-06-25: Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share ↗
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Source excerpt “However, since the researcher population growth rate has long been positive and the productivity growth rate has long been roughly constant, and in fact declining over recent decades (Gordon, 2016), we can infer that at least historically φ < 1.” Location in source Section 2.4 "Endogenous growth", paragraph beginning "The potential for endogenous growth processes"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Philip Trammell; Anton Korinek Version Wayback capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04); compared with a capture of NBER Working Paper 31815 (2023). Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 8f2ec30dd60480d9d46847c94873df53da83535c2b1431d598a0fae0270d8c12). Versions: GPI Working Paper 8-2020 (2020-10 (series cover)): not retrieved; GPI revision (2021-02-04): checked; GPI revision (2023-02-03): retrieved 2026-10-10 as a current copy; not the checked expression; NBER Working Paper 31815 (2023-10): compared; Annual Review of Economics 18 (2026 (Crossref issue date 2026-08-07)): not retrieved. Published version: Trammell, P., & Korinek, A. (2026). Economic growth under transformative AI. Annual Review of Economics, 18, 589–611. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051624-061002 Working papers: GPI Working Paper No. 8-2020 (October 2020; checked revision 2021-02-04); NBER Working Paper No. 31815 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3386/w31815. Crossref gives the journal article's issue date as 2026-08-07; its wording was not retrieved. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2021-06-25: Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share ↗ . Captured 141 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2021-06-25. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Philip Trammell, Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share”, Global Priorities Institute Working Paper No. 8-2020, 2021-02-04. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G02-h (research/economics-growth). The quotation (40 words) matched the checked expression (trammell-gpi) in the pack's verification; one other cached version lacks it. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Title page of the retrieved text: "February 4, 2021". The series cover reads "Global Priorities Institute | October 2020" (see claimed).
Record ID ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b