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Hanson, “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000-12) articulates G03. Fits world product over two million years with a few exponential "modes" (hunting, farming, industry) and extrapolates the pattern of transitions. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2000-12 · publication Wording attested 2001-11-28. Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06). Claimed date 1998-09. "First Version September 1998" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes. Conditions The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions. Scope and limits The author marks the inference as weak. The title page claims a first version of September 1998, which was not retrieved.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes ↗ Working paper, George Mason University (submitted to Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization per the author's December 2000 vita) · 2000-12
Archived copy, captured 2001-11-28: Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes ↗
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Source excerpt “Each mode grew world product by a factor of a few hundred, and grew a hundred times faster than its predecessor. This weakly suggests that within the next century a new mode might appear with a doubling time measured in days, not years.” Location in source Abstract
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Robin Hanson Version Wayback capture of http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 bb301fd8c1b699aa30e04e80a3a06ebfedcd31a9658077a0a3898df305e3cf11). Versions: first version (1998-09 (title page)): not retrieved; working paper (2000-12): checked. Published version: Hanson, R. (2000). Long-term growth as a sequence of exponential modes [Working paper]. Department of Economics, George Mason University. No published version located (Crossref search 2026-10-10 found none). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2001-11-28: Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2001-11-28. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Robin Hanson, “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes”, Working paper, George Mason University (submitted to Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization per the author's December 2000 vita), 2000-12. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G03-a (research/economics-growth). The quotation (43 words) matched the checked expression (hanson-longgrow) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Title page: "December, 2000 / First Version September 1998".
Record ID ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a