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Hanson’s article “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner?” (Journal of Transhumanism, June 1998) says that if the rate of improvement in any one input consistently lags behind the rest, that input becomes a bottleneck limiting the growth rate of the entire process; the next paragraph names the training of professionals who understand computing and its applications as such a bottleneck. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1998-06 · publication Records dated 1998 → Wording attested 1999-01-28. Capture of the author-hosted page of 28 January 1999, read in the raw replay by the archive retrieval of 2026-11-02; its bytes match the SHA-256 the source records. Role Earliest located Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so "economics PhD" is not claimed. Scope and limits A constraint from uneven improvement in essential inputs; it does not say that all automation must be absent. In the article, faster and cheaper hardware alone does not remove the bottleneck it names. Earliest located means the earliest text found by the collection’s searches, the cross-family re-check of 2026-11-02 and the archive retrieval of 2026-11-02, not a first statement.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth ↗ Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998 · 1998-06
Archived copy, captured 1999-01-28: Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth ↗
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Source excerpt “If the rate of improvement in any one input consistently lags behind the rest, that input then becomes a bottleneck limiting the growth rate for the entire process.” Location in source Investment Bottlenecks, paragraph beginning “A big problem”, final sentence
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Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Robin Hanson Version Wayback capture 19990128001813 of the author-hosted page. Retrieved 2026-10-11. SHA-256 ed1990bc86053ac024cc6d7d78d6592379bd42275bc3ce3372344ed27afee004. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-11 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 1999-01-28: Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 1999-01-28. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-11.Attribution Robin Hanson, “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth”, Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998, 1998-06. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Quotation as given verbatim by the archive retrieval of 2026-11-02 (research/archive-fetch-held-2026-11-02/report.md, role 132), which read it in the raw replay of the capture of 28 January 1999 (timestamp 19990128001813; SHA-256 ed1990bc86053ac024cc6d7d78d6592379bd42275bc3ce3372344ed27afee004 of the response body as served). That retrieval, by a model of another family, is the cross-family read of this passage; the session applying the decision could not reach the archive and took the passage from the report. The cross-family re-check of 2026-11-02 (review/earliest-located-recheck-2026-11-02.md, role 132) proposed this text for this proposition and role. Admitted by the maintainer’s decision of 2026-11-02. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
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Date. Page heading “Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998”; no day printed.
Record ID ec-g04-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a