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Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G09. The authors' unconditional estimate. The same paragraph says high confidence "seems unwarranted". Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2023-10-01 · publication Wording attested 2023-10-01. Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025. Claimed date 2023-09-20. Date of v1, which was not retrieved. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold. Conditions Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies). Estimate by Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth. Horizon: by the end of this century (from October 2023). Definition: annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years. Conditions: The same paragraph says high confidence "seems unwarranted". Scope and limits Definition corrected after the cross-family check.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments ↗ arXiv:2309.11690 [econ.GN] · 2023-10-01
Archived copy, captured 2025-06-30: Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments ↗
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Source excerpt “We think that the odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth by the end of this century are about even.” Location in source Section 1 (Introduction), fourth theme
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Ege Erdil; Tamay Besiroglu Version Wayback capture of arxiv.org/pdf/2309.11690v2; compared with v3. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 28610b91d03d1d055d6e1af308b964387905af66557936ee49c622f693985617). Versions: arXiv v1 (2023-09-20): not retrieved; arXiv v2 (2023-10-01): checked; arXiv v3 (2024-07-15): compared. Published version: Erdil, E., & Besiroglu, T. (2023). Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments (arXiv:2309.11690v2) [Preprint]. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.11690v2 No journal version located (Crossref search 2026-10-10 found none). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-06-30: Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments ↗ . Captured 638 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-06-30. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments”, arXiv:2309.11690 [econ.GN], 2023-10-01. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G09-f (research/economics-growth). The quotation (21 words) matched the checked expression (erdil-arxiv-v2) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15.
Record ID ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a