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Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G09. The next sentence: the prediction "suggests that we not reject out of hand the predictions of this model of machine intelligence", and the following one links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2000-08-19 · event Wording attested 2000-08-19. Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded. Claimed date 1998. Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University. Estimate by Robin Hanson median prediction of a transition to an economic doubling time of one to two years. Horizon: around 2025 (measured from an undated file attested 2000). Definition: doubling time of world product of one to two years. Conditional. Conditions: "an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth"; the author adds that it "has large uncertainties" and links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware in the next sentence. Scope and limits Same passage as the one quoted under G03; counted once towards the quotation limit. Added in the correction pass (audit C). The author adds that the prediction "has large uncertainties". The sentence reports the author’s separate, self-cited projection (Hanson, 1998), used to argue that the model’s predictions should not be rejected out of hand; it is not an estimate the text makes afresh. It held the tier-1 earliest-located role from 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-25; the role is now withheld.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence ↗ Working paper · Publication date unknown
Archived copy, captured 2000-08-19: Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence ↗
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Source excerpt “an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth makes a median prediction that the economy will transition to a doubling time of one to two years around 2025 (Hanson, 1998).” Location in source Section 3 "The Simplest Model", paragraph after the 45% example
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Robin Hanson Version Wayback capture of http://hanson.gmu.edu/aigrow.pdf (PDF created 2000-06-22). Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 754380e21b0e9f5a62fe71ea238a86e8640df48a0551c55cf4877a2a732b99c1). Versions: claimed 1998 version (1998 (author's citation)): not located; hanson.gmu.edu/aigrow.pdf (undated; dated by the 2000-08-19 capture): checked. Published version: Hanson, R. (n.d.). Economic growth given machine intelligence [Unpublished manuscript]. Retrieved from a 2000-08-19 Wayback capture of hanson.gmu.edu/aigrow.pdf. No published version located (Crossref search 2026-10-10 found none). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2000-08-19: Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence ↗ . No publication date is recorded for this source. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2000-08-19. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Robin Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”, Working paper, author's site (hanson.gmu.edu/aigrow.pdf). Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G09-0 (research/economics-growth). The quotation (32 words) matched the checked expression (hanson-aigrow) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09).
Record ID ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a