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Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence” (2018-01) bears on M05. Notes that existing automation models (here Acemoglu and Restrepo 2017) rely on tasks that only labour can perform, and offers a prediction-based approach instead. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2018-01 · publication Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element Identifies and questions the new-tasks assumption in existing models but does not itself model machines performing all tasks. Tier Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue). Scope and limits NBER Working Paper 24243, January 2018. Characterises another paper; a footnote adds that Acemoglu and Restrepo's model is designed for a different question.
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Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence ↗ NBER Working Paper 24243 · 2018-01
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Source excerpt “They make what they call a "natural assumption" that only labour can perform the new tasks as they are more complex than previous ones.” Location in source pdf page 3; section 1 Introduction
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi Goldfarb Version Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 64e4872abaea128fc37382d098bc0d4a5662fbdad641e38e010210169158a5ad. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb, “Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence”, NBER Working Paper 24243, 2018-01. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M05-26 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (24 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 64e4872abaea128fc37382d098bc0d4a5662fbdad641e38e010210169158a5ad) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Cover "January 2018". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated.
Record ID ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-b