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Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M08. Illustrates that a single AI application could add about 0.17 percentage points a year to US labour productivity growth over a decade. Second worked example showing that individual AI applications could add measurably to aggregate labour productivity over about a decade. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2017-11 · publication Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element (M08-02) An illustrative calculation for one AI application (autonomous vehicles), not an estimate of AI's aggregate effect. (M08-03) An illustrative calculation for one application (call centres), not an aggregate estimate. Tier Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue). Conditions (M08-02) Assumes drivers needed for current workload fall from 3.5 million to 1.5 million out of 122 million private nonfarm employment, over a supposed 10-year transition; excludes complementary gains. (M08-03) Assumes AI handles 60–70% of calls and reduces call-centre workers (about 2.2 million in 2015) by 60%. Scope and limits (First passage) NBER Working Paper 24001, November 2017 (NBER conference paper; later published in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence). Hypothetical scenario ("Suppose"); requires targeted recheck of figures. (Second passage) NBER Working Paper 24001, November 2017 (NBER conference paper; later published in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence). Hypothetical; requires targeted recheck of figures.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics ↗ NBER Working Paper 24001 · 2017-11
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Source excerpt “Supposing this transition occurred over 10 years, this single technology would provide a direct boost of 0.17 percent to annual productivity growth over that decade.” Location in source pdf page 19; section "A Technology-Driven Case for Productivity Optimism"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad Syverson Version Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 7c34b5a8edac034b1ec781568cfb8e33b2d37e30705ce24424c2fc1a1f837992. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Chad Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics”, NBER Working Paper 24001, 2017-11. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M08-02 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (25 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 7c34b5a8edac034b1ec781568cfb8e33b2d37e30705ce24424c2fc1a1f837992) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. primary source Supports the claim
Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics ↗ NBER Working Paper 24001 · 2017-11
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “If AI reduced the number of workers by 60%, it would increase US labor productivity by 1%, perhaps again spread over 10 years.” Location in source pdf page 20; section "A Technology-Driven Case for Productivity Optimism" (call centres)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad Syverson Version Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 7c34b5a8edac034b1ec781568cfb8e33b2d37e30705ce24424c2fc1a1f837992. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Chad Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics”, NBER Working Paper 24001, 2017-11. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M08-03 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (23 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 7c34b5a8edac034b1ec781568cfb8e33b2d37e30705ce24424c2fc1a1f837992) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Cover "November 2017". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated.
Record ID ec-m08-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b