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“Machines and the theory of intelligence” (1973) reports a survey result (Opinion poll reported by Donald Michie, "Machines and the theory of intelligence" (Nature, 1973)): “computing system exhibiting intelligence at adult human level”; horizon as stated: Given only in Fig. 11.4, as the frequency of answers over "Estimated number of years before" the event, in bands from 10 to more than 50 years. The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source; Context: secondary · 1 source
Date 1973 · publication Records dated 1973 → Scope and limits The text states no aggregate number; the horizon is given only in the figure, whose values this record does not read off. AI Impacts' reading of the figure (secondary, below) is recorded as that site's reading. The text calls the poll a sample of "subjective opinion".
The evidence 04 primary source Supports the claim
On Machine Intelligence, second edition (chapter 11, "Machines and the theory of intelligence") ↗ Ellis Horwood, 1986; first published in Nature 241 (1973): 507–512 · 1986
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Source excerpt “Fig. 11.4 summarizes some of the results of an opinion” Location in source Chapter 11, "Implications and forecasting", printed pp. 146–147
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Donald Michie Version Scan of the 1986 second edition with text layer, hosted by gwern.net; chapter 11, printed pp. 146–147. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 e48b1ffdaf417b1358941347b6fe61ad75bd17c6ad973ee3284f4533f9bd623f). The chapter is dated 1973 in its heading and the book's acknowledgements give Nature 241 (1973), 507–12; the 1986 reprint is the text read. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Donald Michie, “Machines and the theory of intelligence (1973), chapter 11 of On Machine Intelligence, second edition”, 1986. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 e48b1ffdaf417b1358941347b6fe61ad75bd17c6ad973ee3284f4533f9bd623f); spacing ignored. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
On Machine Intelligence, second edition (chapter 11, "Machines and the theory of intelligence") ↗ Ellis Horwood, 1986; first published in Nature 241 (1973): 507–512 · 1986
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Source excerpt “Opinion poll on machine intelligence. Estimated number of years before: , computing system exhibiting intelligence at adult human level” Location in source Fig. 11.4 caption, printed p. 146
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Donald Michie Version Scan of the 1986 second edition with text layer, hosted by gwern.net; chapter 11, printed pp. 146–147. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 e48b1ffdaf417b1358941347b6fe61ad75bd17c6ad973ee3284f4533f9bd623f). The chapter is dated 1973 in its heading and the book's acknowledgements give Nature 241 (1973), 507–12; the 1986 reprint is the text read. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Donald Michie, “Machines and the theory of intelligence (1973), chapter 11 of On Machine Intelligence, second edition”, 1986. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 e48b1ffdaf417b1358941347b6fe61ad75bd17c6ad973ee3284f4533f9bd623f). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
On Machine Intelligence, second edition (chapter 11, "Machines and the theory of intelligence") ↗ Ellis Horwood, 1986; first published in Nature 241 (1973): 507–512 · 1986
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Source excerpt “poll taken last year among sixty-seven British and American computer scientists working in, or close to, the machine intelligence field” Location in source Chapter 11, text after Fig. 11.4, printed p. 146
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Donald Michie Version Scan of the 1986 second edition with text layer, hosted by gwern.net; chapter 11, printed pp. 146–147. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 e48b1ffdaf417b1358941347b6fe61ad75bd17c6ad973ee3284f4533f9bd623f). The chapter is dated 1973 in its heading and the book's acknowledgements give Nature 241 (1973), 507–12; the 1986 reprint is the text read. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Donald Michie, “Machines and the theory of intelligence (1973), chapter 11 of On Machine Intelligence, second edition”, 1986. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 e48b1ffdaf417b1358941347b6fe61ad75bd17c6ad973ee3284f4533f9bd623f); spacing ignored. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. secondary source Context only
Michie Survey ↗ AI Impacts · 2014
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Source excerpt “respondents were roughly divided between expecting human-level intelligence in 20 years, in 50 years and in more than 50 years” Location in source Summary paragraph
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors AI Impacts Version Live page, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 1d50058f0f98977686dd75c4f22280966c81f61bd0c7c1572d6f4f7577dd71d2). Page undated in the text read; AI Impacts pages of this series date from 2014 onwards. Used as a secondary reading of the figure only. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution AI Impacts, “Michie Survey”, 2014. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 1d50058f0f98977686dd75c4f22280966c81f61bd0c7c1572d6f4f7577dd71d2). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Publication date of the text. Chapter heading "(1973)"; first published in Nature 241 (1973): 507–512. The poll was "taken last year", that is in 1972.
Record ID pr-a-michie-1973-opinion-poll