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“Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research” (1958) states a prediction by Herbert A. Simon and Allen Newell: “within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion, unless the rules bar it from competition”; horizon as stated: within ten years. The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source; Context: primary · 1 source
Date 1958 · publication Records dated 1958 → Scope and limits The first of four numbered predictions introduced by "I am willing to make the following predictions, to be realized within the next ten years"; the speaker is Simon, and the footnote states that "its content is a joint product of the authors". The other three predictions (a mathematical theorem, music, theories in psychology) are recorded separately. Checked against a scan of the printed article in a later course-readings PDF, read visually; no text layer.
The evidence 04 primary source Supports the claim
Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research ↗ Operations Research 6 (1): 1–10 · 1958
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Source excerpt “within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion, unless the rules bar it from competition” Location in source Printed p. 7 (bundle PDF p. 13), predictions list, item 1
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Herbert A. Simon; Allen Newell Version Scan of the printed article (pp. 1–10) in a course-readings PDF of 2007 at cse.buffalo.edu, without a text layer; read visually by a reviewer from a different model family and by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family. The publisher page (doi.org) returned HTTP 403. Operations Research 6 (1), issue dated "January - February 1958" on printed p. 1. The opening footnote dates the address to 14 November 1957. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Herbert A. Simon, Allen Newell, “Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research”, 1958. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. Copy read: Scan of the printed article in a 2007 course-readings PDF (cse.buffalo.edu), no text layer; read visually by a reviewer from a different model family and by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family on 2026-11-03. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research ↗ Operations Research 6 (1): 1–10 · 1958
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Source excerpt “I am willing to make the following predictions, to be realized within the next ten years” Location in source Printed p. 7, sentence introducing the list
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Herbert A. Simon; Allen Newell Version Scan of the printed article (pp. 1–10) in a course-readings PDF of 2007 at cse.buffalo.edu, without a text layer; read visually by a reviewer from a different model family and by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family. The publisher page (doi.org) returned HTTP 403. Operations Research 6 (1), issue dated "January - February 1958" on printed p. 1. The opening footnote dates the address to 14 November 1957. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Herbert A. Simon, Allen Newell, “Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research”, 1958. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read on the page image by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family on 2026-11-03. Copy read: Scan of the printed article in a 2007 course-readings PDF (cse.buffalo.edu), no text layer; read visually by a reviewer from a different model family and by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family on 2026-11-03. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research ↗ Operations Research 6 (1): 1–10 · 1958
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Source excerpt “Mr. Simon presented the paper; its content is a joint product of the authors.” Location in source Printed p. 1, footnote
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Herbert A. Simon; Allen Newell Version Scan of the printed article (pp. 1–10) in a course-readings PDF of 2007 at cse.buffalo.edu, without a text layer; read visually by a reviewer from a different model family and by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family. The publisher page (doi.org) returned HTTP 403. Operations Research 6 (1), issue dated "January - February 1958" on printed p. 1. The opening footnote dates the address to 14 November 1957. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Herbert A. Simon, Allen Newell, “Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research”, 1958. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read on the page image by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family on 2026-11-03. Copy read: Scan of the printed article in a 2007 course-readings PDF (cse.buffalo.edu), no text layer; read visually by a reviewer from a different model family and by an automated research assistant of the preparing model family on 2026-11-03. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Context only
Re: citation needed for your prediction about chess (email exchange, posted as course material) ↗ Course page, University at Buffalo · 1998-09-24
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Paraphrase Simon's reply dates the prediction to an ORSA meeting in 1957 and gives its publication as Simon and Newell, Operations Research 6:1-10 (1958).
Location in source Simon's reply of 24 September 1998, first paragraph
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Herbert A. Simon; William J. Rapaport Version Plain-text copy of two emails, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 0abdef11b9ef09d9dbd6326cf7b1063a6880fb02b84df1c515883a0de52f5359). Date line of the emails; the copy is a later course-page transcription. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Herbert A. Simon, William J. Rapaport, “Re: citation needed for your prediction about chess (email exchange, posted as course material)”, 1998-09-24. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Paraphrase of the text retrieved on 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 0abdef11b9ef09d9dbd6326cf7b1063a6880fb02b84df1c515883a0de52f5359). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Publication date of the text. Operations Research 6 (1), January–February 1958 (the issue names two months). The article is the text of an address of 14 November 1957 (footnote, printed p. 1); the passage dates its own "present" to 1957.
Record ID pr-a-simon-newell-1958-chess