Claim · 2001-01 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“The Law of Accelerating Returns” (2001-01) states a prediction by Ray Kurzweil: “We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000”; horizon as stated: around the year 2023. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

The Law of Accelerating Returns → states a prediction → We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

The Law of Accelerating Returnsstates a prediction ↓We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2001-01 · publication Records dated 2001 →

Scope and limitsOne of the dates the essay lists as output of its own model ("Some prominent dates from this analysis"); the model's assumptions are stated in the essay.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

The Law of Accelerating Returns

The Kurzweil Library (writingsbyraykurzweil.com), essay page · 2001-03-07

Archived copy, captured 2001-11-07: The Law of Accelerating Returns

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.”

Location in source Model section, "Some prominent dates from this analysis"

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Ray Kurzweil
Version: Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31 (SHA-256 b1235f63983668667c5abade21b45d8084f3487cc19648396665252510f29aac). The Kurzweil Library page labelled "essay: the Law of Accelerating Returns. author: by Ray Kurzweil date: January 2001", with a page date of January 1, 2025. Not compared with the kurzweilai.net copies of 2001 (captures listed in retrievalFailures). The cross-family check of 2026-11-01 read the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001, which states that the essay was written in November 2000 and published on 7 March 2001, and found the quoted passages it compared.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-31
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2001-11-07: The Law of Accelerating Returns. Captured 245 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2001-11-07. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-31.
Attribution: Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns”, 2001-03-07.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 b1235f63983668667c5abade21b45d8084f3487cc19648396665252510f29aac). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Publication date of the text. As for the companion record.

Record ID pr-b-kurzweil-2001-1000-dollars-2023