Claim · 2011-06-17 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI” (2011-06-17) states a prediction by Shane Legg: “the development of human-level machine intelligence”; horizon as stated: 10%: 2018; 50%: 2028; 90%: 2050. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI → states a prediction → the development of human-level machine intelligence

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AIstates a prediction ↓the development of human-level machine intelligence

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2011-06-17 · publication Records dated 2011 →

Scope and limitsThe question, its levels and its condition are the interviewer's wording; the answer is the three years. The interviewer's explanatory remark adds "no wars", "no disasters" and "beneficially political and economic development".

The evidence 02

primary sourceSupports the claim

Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI

LessWrong · 2011-06-17

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence?”

Location in source The Interview, Q1

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: XiXiDu (interviewer); Shane Legg
Version: Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint (the HTML page returns HTTP 403 here). Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 4f1f11cc76cfc198a3e93d78a6f35d9fd2599111eefbcf6ea3eb39b0c2b8b7c7).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: XiXiDu (interviewer), Shane Legg, “Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI”, 2011-06-17.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 4f1f11cc76cfc198a3e93d78a6f35d9fd2599111eefbcf6ea3eb39b0c2b8b7c7). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI

LessWrong · 2011-06-17

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Shane Legg: 2018, 2028, 2050”

Location in source The Interview, answer to Q1

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: XiXiDu (interviewer); Shane Legg
Version: Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint (the HTML page returns HTTP 403 here). Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 4f1f11cc76cfc198a3e93d78a6f35d9fd2599111eefbcf6ea3eb39b0c2b8b7c7).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: XiXiDu (interviewer), Shane Legg, “Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI”, 2011-06-17.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 4f1f11cc76cfc198a3e93d78a6f35d9fd2599111eefbcf6ea3eb39b0c2b8b7c7). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the post. Answers by email, posted by the interviewer (XiXiDu) on LessWrong.

Record ID pr-b-legg-2011-human-level