Claim · 1993-12 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era” (1993-12) states a prediction by Vernor Vinge: “this event occurs”; horizon as stated: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era → states a prediction → this event occurs

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Erastates a prediction ↓this event occurs

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 1993-12 · publication Records dated 1993 →

Scope and limitsThe author gives the calendar window himself, "so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity". Worded as what would surprise him, not as a probability.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era

NASA (VISION-21 proceedings, NASA Conference Publication 10129) · 1993-12

Archived copy, captured 2022-04-15: The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.”

Location in source Same paragraph (PDF p. 2)

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Vernor Vinge
Version: NASA Technical Reports Server scan of the proceedings pages, pp. 11–22; retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash both candidate searches recorded, and checked against its text layer. The pre-1996 candidate search compared pp. 14–16 with the page images.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-06
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2022-04-15: The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2022-04-15. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.
Attribution: Vernor Vinge, "The Coming Technological Singularity", in VISION-21, NASA CP-10129 (1993), pp. 11–22.
Reuse: Public use permitted, according to the NASA Technical Reports Server record.. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 943ee92903785b1b6c1cf2e85a22dc47cfdb372ef3295c572dee0a742e490acd). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Publication date of the text.

Record ID pr-b-vinge-1993-2005-2030