Claim · 1993-12 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era” (1993-12) states a prediction by Vernor Vinge: “the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur”; horizon as stated: during the next thirty years. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era → states a prediction → the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Erastates a prediction ↓the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 1993-12 · publication Records dated 1993 →

Scope and limitsThe sentence gives its basis ("Based largely on this trend", the steady progress of computer hardware). The next sentence restates the horizon as calendar years (companion record).

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era

NASA (VISION-21 proceedings, NASA Conference Publication 10129) · 1993-12

Archived copy, captured 2022-04-15: The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years.”

Location in source Section "What is the Singularity?" (proceedings p. 12; PDF p. 2)

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Vernor Vinge
Version: NASA Technical Reports Server scan of the proceedings pages, pp. 11–22; retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash both candidate searches recorded, and checked against its text layer. The pre-1996 candidate search compared pp. 14–16 with the page images.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-06
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2022-04-15: The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2022-04-15. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.
Attribution: Vernor Vinge, "The Coming Technological Singularity", in VISION-21, NASA CP-10129 (1993), pp. 11–22.
Reuse: Public use permitted, according to the NASA Technical Reports Server record.. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 943ee92903785b1b6c1cf2e85a22dc47cfdb372ef3295c572dee0a742e490acd). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Publication date of the text. NASA conference publication of the VISION-21 symposium (March 1993).

Record ID pr-b-vinge-1993-thirty-years