Claim · 2000-08-31 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Staring into the Singularity” (2000-08-31) states a prediction by Eliezer Yudkowsky: the Singularity (paraphrased); horizon as stated: 2035 "seems like a reasonable upper bound"; "The lower bound? Thirty seconds.". The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Staring into the Singularity → states a prediction → the Singularity

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Staring into the Singularitystates a prediction ↓the Singularity

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2000-08-31 · publication Records dated 2000 →

Scope and limitsThe quoted sentence names a bound, not an expected date; its event is the section's subject and is paraphrased. Checked against the dataset's passage from the 2000 capture.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

Staring into the Singularity (version 1.2.1)

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky · 1996-11-18

Archived copy, captured 2000-12-04: Staring into the Singularity (version 1.2.1)

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“The most we can say about 2035 is that it seems like a reasonable upper bound, given the current rate of progress. The lower bound? Thirty seconds.”

Location in source §3 "Sooner Than You Think", final paragraph

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Version: Version 1.2.1, "Updated: 08/31/2000", in the raw Internet Archive capture of 2000-12-04; retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash recorded by the 1996–2022 candidate search. Personal website, sysopmind.com.
Version date: 2000-08-31
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-06
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2000-12-04: Staring into the Singularity (version 1.2.1). Captured 95 days after the recorded version date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2000-12-04. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.
Attribution: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "Staring into the Singularity", version 1.2.1 (2000).
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Checked against the dataset’s checked passage from the same source. Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Publication date of the text. Revision date of version 1.2.1 ("Updated: 08/31/2000"), read in an Internet Archive capture of 2000-12-04; the page was first posted on 1996-11-18 (claimed date; the checked wording is that of version 1.2.1).

Record ID pr-b-yudkowsky-2000-2035-upper-bound