Claim · 2022-08 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI” (2022-08) reports a survey result (AI Impacts, 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI): “HLMI”; horizon as stated: aggregate forecast time to a 50% chance: 37 years, i.e. 2059. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI → states a prediction → HLMI

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AIstates a prediction ↓HLMI

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2022-08 · publication Records dated 2022 →

Scope and limitsThe calendar year is the page's own. The page notes that the figure excludes the questions on full automation of labour.

The evidence 02

primary sourceSupports the claim

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

AI Impacts Wiki · 2022-08

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“The aggregate forecast time to a 50% chance of HLMI was 37 years, i.e. 2059”

Location in source Summary of results

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: AI Impacts
Version: Live wiki page, retrieved directly; a reviewer from a different model family read an Internet Archive capture of the results post of 2022-08-04 with the same figure. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 b2e47e7d94816a450b19683c9d5d150a2d6d1b386294d589554cd28664927c48). The results page was first published in August 2022; the wiki page is mutable and was read live.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: AI Impacts, “2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI”, 2022-08.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 b2e47e7d94816a450b19683c9d5d150a2d6d1b386294d589554cd28664927c48). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

AI Impacts Wiki · 2022-08

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“The aggregate forecast time to HLMI was 36.6 years, conditional on "human scientific activity continu[ing] without major negative disruption."

Location in source High-level machine intelligence (HLMI) timelines

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: AI Impacts
Version: Live wiki page, retrieved directly; a reviewer from a different model family read an Internet Archive capture of the results post of 2022-08-04 with the same figure. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 b2e47e7d94816a450b19683c9d5d150a2d6d1b386294d589554cd28664927c48). The results page was first published in August 2022; the wiki page is mutable and was read live.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: AI Impacts, “2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI”, 2022-08.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 b2e47e7d94816a450b19683c9d5d150a2d6d1b386294d589554cd28664927c48). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details. Live wiki page; wording attested from retrieval on 2026-11-02.

Record ID pr-c-espai-2022-hlmi-2059