Claim · 2021-09-07 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand” (2021-09-07) states a prediction by Holden Karnofsky: “transformative AI”; horizon as stated: more than 10% within 15 years (by 2036); ~50% within 40 years (by 2060); ~2/3 this century (by 2100). The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand → states a prediction → transformative AI

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Standstates a prediction ↓transformative AI

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2021-09-07 · publication Records dated 2021 →

Scope and limitsThe author's own estimate, with his calendar years in parentheses.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand

Cold Takes · 2021-09-07

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“I estimate that there is more than a 10% chance we'll see transformative AI within 15 years (by 2036); a ~50% chance we'll see it within 40 years (by 2060); and a ~2/3 chance we'll see it this century (by 2100).”

Location in source Opening summary

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Holden Karnofsky
Version: Live post, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 025ec59e6db67d674d981f878fb7100a3ba19a5ccf4bf43564f9111237d5a576).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Holden Karnofsky, “AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand”, 2021-09-07.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 025ec59e6db67d674d981f878fb7100a3ba19a5ccf4bf43564f9111237d5a576). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the post.

Record ID pr-e-karnofsky-2021-transformative-ai