Claim · 2009-12-07 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING” (2009-12-07) states a prediction by Shane Legg: roughly human level AGI (paraphrased); horizon as stated: mode "about 2025"; expected value "a bit higher at 2028"; 90% credibility region "2018 to 2036". The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING → states a prediction → roughly human level AGI

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Tick, tock, tick, tock… BINGstates a prediction ↓roughly human level AGI

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2009-12-07 · publication Records dated 2009 →

Scope and limitsRests on transcriptions by a reviewer from a different model family of a copy the preparing assistant could not reach; that reviewer read the copy again on 2026-11-05 and confirms the quoted wording. The post of 10 December 2010 says "One thing I screwed up last year was the 90% credibility region"; this record keeps the 2009 interval as posted. An expected value is not a median; the record keeps the post's terms. The 2011 interview is a separate source and is not merged with this distribution.

The evidence 03

primary sourceSupports the claim

Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2009-12-07

Archived copy, captured 2009-12-13: Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“while my mode is about 2025, my expected value is actually a bit higher at 2028.”

Location in source Main post, AGI-distribution paragraph

Machine-checked · 2026-11-03

Source details and check notes

Authors: Shane Legg
Version: Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family; vetta.org returns HTTP 403 and web.archive.org did not answer the preparing assistant. Post date "December 7th, 2009" as read by a reviewer from a different model family in a capture of 2009-12-13.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2009-12-13: Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING. Captured 6 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2009-12-13. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.
Attribution: Shane Legg, “Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING”, 2009-12-07.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2009-12-07

Archived copy, captured 2009-12-13: Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“my 90% credibility region, which from my current belief distribution comes out at 2018 to 2036.”

Location in source Same paragraph

Machine-checked · 2026-11-03

Source details and check notes

Authors: Shane Legg
Version: Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family; vetta.org returns HTTP 403 and web.archive.org did not answer the preparing assistant. Post date "December 7th, 2009" as read by a reviewer from a different model family in a capture of 2009-12-13.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2009-12-13: Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING. Captured 6 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2009-12-13. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.
Attribution: Shane Legg, “Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING”, 2009-12-07.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2009-12-07

Archived copy, captured 2009-12-13: Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Right, so my prediction for the last 10 years has been for roughly human level AGI in the year 2025”

Location in source Final main-post paragraph, first sentence

Machine-checked · 2026-11-05

Source details and check notes

Authors: Shane Legg
Version: Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family; vetta.org returns HTTP 403 and web.archive.org did not answer the preparing assistant. Post date "December 7th, 2009" as read by a reviewer from a different model family in a capture of 2009-12-13.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Archive copy: Open archived copy, captured 2009-12-13: Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING. Captured 6 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2009-12-13. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.
Attribution: Shane Legg, “Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING”, 2009-12-07.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the post. Post date as read by a reviewer from a different model family in a capture of 2009-12-13.

Record ID pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025