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“Goodbye 2010” (2010-12-10) states a prediction by Shane Legg: roughly human level AGI (paraphrased); horizon as stated: log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028, and a mode of 2025. The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2010-12-10 · publication Records dated 2010 → Scope and limits Rests on transcriptions by a reviewer from a different model family of a copy the preparing assistant could not reach; that reviewer read the copy again on 2026-11-05 and confirms the quoted wording. "I gave it" reports the 2009 distribution; the post keeps the mean "unmoved at 2028". The next paragraph corrects the 2009 credibility region, which this record does not carry.
The evidence 03 primary source Supports the claim
Goodbye 2010 ↗ vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2010-12-10
Archived copy, captured 2010-12-14: Goodbye 2010 ↗
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Source excerpt “Basically, I gave it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028, and a mode of 2025.” Location in source Main post, human-level AGI paragraph
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Shane Legg Version Internet Archive capture 20101214110948, read by a reviewer from a different model family; not reachable from the preparing assistant's environment. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family (10 December 2010), read in a capture of 2010-12-14. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2010-12-14: Goodbye 2010 ↗ . Captured 4 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2010-12-14. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Shane Legg, “Goodbye 2010”, 2010-12-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20101214110948, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Goodbye 2010 ↗ vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2010-12-10
Archived copy, captured 2010-12-14: Goodbye 2010 ↗
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Source excerpt “My longest running prediction, since 1999, has been the time until roughly human level AGI.” Location in source Human-level AGI paragraph, first sentence
Machine-checked · 2026-11-05
Source details and check notes Authors Shane Legg Version Internet Archive capture 20101214110948, read by a reviewer from a different model family; not reachable from the preparing assistant's environment. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family (10 December 2010), read in a capture of 2010-12-14. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2010-12-14: Goodbye 2010 ↗ . Captured 4 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2010-12-14. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Shane Legg, “Goodbye 2010”, 2010-12-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20101214110948, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Goodbye 2010 ↗ vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2010-12-10
Archived copy, captured 2010-12-14: Goodbye 2010 ↗
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Paraphrase A later sentence in the paragraph says the author considered moving the prediction very slightly closer but decided to keep it “unmoved at 2028”.
Location in source Same paragraph, later sentence
Machine-checked · 2026-11-05
Source details and check notes Authors Shane Legg Version Internet Archive capture 20101214110948, read by a reviewer from a different model family; not reachable from the preparing assistant's environment. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family (10 December 2010), read in a capture of 2010-12-14. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2010-12-14: Goodbye 2010 ↗ . Captured 4 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2010-12-14. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Shane Legg, “Goodbye 2010”, 2010-12-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Paraphrase, with the record’s words in quotation marks, of a passage read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. The post has about 376 words (live page), so its quotation limit is 37 words; the third passage is paraphrased. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20101214110948, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Date of the post. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family, read in a capture of 2010-12-14.
Record ID pr-e-legg-2010-log-normal