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“Goodbye 2011, hello 2012” (2011-12-31) states a prediction by Shane Legg: human level AGI (paraphrased); horizon as stated: log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025. The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2011-12-31 · publication Records dated 2011 → Scope and limits Rests on transcriptions by a reviewer from a different model family of a copy the preparing assistant could not reach; that reviewer read the copy again on 2026-11-05 and confirms the quoted wording. The post leaves the estimate "unchanged"; a separate estimate in the same post, of proto-AGI, is not recorded here. The capture is three months after the post date.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Goodbye 2011, hello 2012 ↗ vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2011-12-31
Archived copy, captured 2012-04-06: Goodbye 2011, hello 2012 ↗
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Paraphrase The next sentence gives the prediction as a log-normal distribution with “a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025”, on the assumption that nothing catastrophic, such as a nuclear war, happens.
Location in source Main post, opening paragraph
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Shane Legg Version Internet Archive capture 20120406082032, read by a reviewer from a different model family; not reachable from the preparing assistant's environment. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family (31 December 2011), read in a capture of 2012-04-06. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2012-04-06: Goodbye 2011, hello 2012 ↗ . Captured 97 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2012-04-06. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Shane Legg, “Goodbye 2011, hello 2012”, 2011-12-31. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Paraphrase, with the record’s words in quotation marks, of a passage read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. The post has about 111 words (live page): one complete sentence of up to 25 words may be quoted, so the distribution's sentence is paraphrased with its figures in quotation marks. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20120406082032, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Goodbye 2011, hello 2012 ↗ vetta.org (author’s blog) · 2011-12-31
Archived copy, captured 2012-04-06: Goodbye 2011, hello 2012 ↗
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “I’ve decided to once again leave my prediction for when human level AGI will arrive unchanged.” Location in source Opening paragraph, first sentence
Machine-checked · 2026-11-05
Source details and check notes Authors Shane Legg Version Internet Archive capture 20120406082032, read by a reviewer from a different model family; not reachable from the preparing assistant's environment. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family (31 December 2011), read in a capture of 2012-04-06. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2012-04-06: Goodbye 2011, hello 2012 ↗ . Captured 97 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2012-04-06. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Shane Legg, “Goodbye 2011, hello 2012”, 2011-12-31. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. The quoted words also match the live post at vetta.org, retrieved by the preparing assistant on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20120406082032, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Date of the post. Post date as reported by a reviewer from a different model family, read in a capture of 2012-04-06.
Record ID pr-e-legg-2011-log-normal