Claim · 2017-02-27 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

Benthall's paper of February 2017 argues, using a Bayesian model of a reasoning agent, that there are important limits to how far an agent can improve its predictive ability through self-modification alone, and so rejects the scenario of rapid self-improvement to superintelligence.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Don't Fear the Reaper: Refuting Bostrom's Superintelligence Argument → contests → Fast or hard takeoff

Where it appears

Claim and evidence

Don't Fear the Reaper: Refuting Bostrom's Superintelligence Argumentcontests ↓Fast or hard takeoff

Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editorStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2017-02-27 · publication Records dated 2017 →
Role: Contesting
Register (kind of text): Nonfiction
Engagement: Engages a premise. It disputes the premise that an agent can rapidly raise its predictive ability by self-modification (the recalcitrance of prediction).

Scope and limitsA model-based argument about one capacity (prediction) that the author holds the scenario depends on; it addresses Bostrom's Superintelligence (2014), which is not retrievable here.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

Don't Fear the Reaper: Refuting Bostrom's Superintelligence Argument

arXiv:1702.08495 · 2017-02-27

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“We argue that this scenario depends on an agent’s ability to rapidly improve its ability to predict its environment through self-modification. Using a Bayesian model of a reasoning agent, we show that there are important limitations to how an agent may improve its predictive ability through self-modification alone.”

Location in source PDF p. 1, Abstract

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-10-31

Source details and check notes

Authors: Sebastian Benthall
Version: Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 0f1adf93c7d772a48206d4b654319ec4e049f1a0a9ef384a0d03b723ab926b75). arXiv v1, 27 Feb 2017. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-29
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Sebastian Benthall, “Don't Fear the Reaper: Refuting Bostrom's Superintelligence Argument”, 2017-02-27.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (48 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 86) re-read the record’s source and found the quotation and stance supported. No human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor. An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.

Date. Date of the arXiv v1 submission.

Record ID rd-a4-benthall-2017-dont-fear-the-reaper