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Bostrom's paper of March 2002 defines existential risks as risks that would annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently curtail its potential, lists a badly programmed superintelligence among them, and argues that the subject merits very serious attention even at a probability of about 1%. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2002-03 · publication Records dated 2002 → Claimed date 2001-04. The acknowledgements say an earlier version was presented at the Foresight Institute's Senior Associates Gathering, April 2001; that version does not date the quoted wording. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope and limits The paper treats existential risk in general; advanced AI is one of several sources it lists (with nanotechnology, engineered pathogens and others). Its call for priority attaches to existential risks as a class, not to AI alone. The draft first presented in April 2001 was not retrieved.
The evidence 03 primary source Supports the claim
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards ↗ Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 9 (jetpress.org) · 2002-03
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Source excerpt “One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.” Location in source Section 1, definition of existential risks
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Nick Bostrom Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 2b18c3db8df16008ac27ccdbdaacffbcb6d2a99e3b803d14c03f2a5ccb9dd3c3). HTML article as served by the journal at jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html, headed "Vol. 9 - March 2002"; the text layer shows some mis-encoded punctuation. The author's site also serves a later reformatted PDF ("First version: 2001"), not used for quotation. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution Nick Bostrom, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, 2002-03. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (18 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 50) answered the record’s question blind and agreed with its stance. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards ↗ Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 9 (jetpress.org) · 2002-03
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Source excerpt “we might make a mistake and give it goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, assuming its enormous intellectual advantage gives it the power to do so.” Location in source Section 4.4, "Badly programmed superintelligence"
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Nick Bostrom Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 2b18c3db8df16008ac27ccdbdaacffbcb6d2a99e3b803d14c03f2a5ccb9dd3c3). HTML article as served by the journal at jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html, headed "Vol. 9 - March 2002"; the text layer shows some mis-encoded punctuation. The author's site also serves a later reformatted PDF ("First version: 2001"), not used for quotation. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution Nick Bostrom, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, 2002-03. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (27 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 50) answered the record’s question blind and agreed with its stance. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards ↗ Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 9 (jetpress.org) · 2002-03
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “even if the probability were much smaller (say, ~1%) the subject matter would still merit very serious attention because of how much is at stake.” Location in source Section 8, on the probability of an existential disaster
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Nick Bostrom Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 2b18c3db8df16008ac27ccdbdaacffbcb6d2a99e3b803d14c03f2a5ccb9dd3c3). HTML article as served by the journal at jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html, headed "Vol. 9 - March 2002"; the text layer shows some mis-encoded punctuation. The author's site also serves a later reformatted PDF ("First version: 2001"), not used for quotation. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution Nick Bostrom, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, 2002-03. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (25 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 50) answered the record’s question blind and agreed with its stance. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
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Record ID rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks