Claim · 2024-09-23 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

Altman's essay of September 2024 states that deep learning worked and got predictably better with scale, that the remaining problems will be solved, and that superintelligence may arrive in a few thousand days.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

The Intelligence Age → contests → Capabilities will plateau

Where it appears

Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI →

Claim and evidence

The Intelligence Agecontests ↓Capabilities will plateau

Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editorStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2024-09-23 · publication Records dated 2024 →
Role: Contesting
Register (kind of text): Nonfiction
Engagement: States the contrary. It states that gains from scaling will continue, without answering the reasons given for a plateau.

Scope and limitsA statement by the chief executive of OpenAI, a developer of the systems in question; it gives no argument against specific arguments for a plateau, and does not address risk.

The evidence 02

primary sourceSupports the claim

The Intelligence Age

Author's site (ia.samaltman.com) · 2024-09-23

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it.”

Location in source Paragraph beginning "In 15 words"

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-10-31

Source details and check notes

Authors: Sam Altman
Version: Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 8ccb6729196c174c792d6c7c8f5c00b6c2a49ffaeaf16fbeb42370a2cc7f5ad6). Current page dated September 23, 2024, retrieved 2026-10-29.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-29
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Sam Altman, “The Intelligence Age”, 2024-09-23.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (18 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

The Intelligence Age

Author's site (ia.samaltman.com) · 2024-09-23

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems.”

Location in source Paragraph beginning "There are a lot of details"

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-10-31

Source details and check notes

Authors: Sam Altman
Version: Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 8ccb6729196c174c792d6c7c8f5c00b6c2a49ffaeaf16fbeb42370a2cc7f5ad6). Current page dated September 23, 2024, retrieved 2026-10-29.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-29
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Sam Altman, “The Intelligence Age”, 2024-09-23.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (10 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor. An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.

Date. Date of publication, as the source gives it.

Record ID rd-r13-altman-2024-intelligence-age