Narayanan and Kapoor's post of June 2024 argues that scaling laws do not predict emergent capabilities, that high-quality training data is running short and model sizes are under downward pressure, and states that there is virtually no chance that scaling alone will lead to AGI.
One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.
What it connects
AI scaling myths → articulates → Capabilities will plateau