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Christiano's post of February 2018 states that he thinks a slow takeoff, a continuous acceleration distributed across the economy, significantly more likely than a fast one, arguing that before there is an incredibly intelligent AI there will probably be a slightly worse one. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2018-02-24 · publication Records dated 2018 → Role Most developed, Earliest located use of the name Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Name used “slow takeoff” Scope and limits Christiano's 'slow takeoff' is operationalised as a four-year doubling of world output before a one-year doubling, which is fast by historical standards; the same post states that an intelligence explosion seems very likely to him. The dataset records the post as contesting A4 and articulating A1; this record sits beside those and is not a re-recording of them.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Takeoff speeds ↗ The sideways view (Paul Christiano’s blog) · 2018-02-24
Archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗
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Source excerpt “I currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely.” Location in source Opening paragraph
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Paul Christiano Version Current page, retrieved 2026-10-06; its bytes differ from the 1996–2022 candidate search’s retrieval while the quoted text matches. A machine check compared the capture of 2018-02-25, which was retrieved again on 2026-10-06. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗ . Captured 1 day after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2018-02-25. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Paul Christiano, "Takeoff speeds", The sideways view, 24 February 2018. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (10 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Takeoff speeds ↗ The sideways view (Paul Christiano’s blog) · 2018-02-24
Archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “Before we have an incredibly intelligent AI, we will probably have a slightly worse AI.” Location in source Section "The basic argument"
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Paul Christiano Version Current page, retrieved 2026-10-06; its bytes differ from the 1996–2022 candidate search’s retrieval while the quoted text matches. A machine check compared the capture of 2018-02-25, which was retrieved again on 2026-10-06. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗ . Captured 1 day after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2018-02-25. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Paul Christiano, "Takeoff speeds", The sideways view, 24 February 2018. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (15 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Date of posting.
Record ID rd-r16-christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds