Hanson’s post “Setting the Stage” (headed 18 November 2008, in the MIRI compilation of 2013) puts the chance that a single hand-coded system suddenly and without warning changes from nearly powerless to overwhelmingly powerful at less than 1%, and expects emulations to enter a competitive market over months or years.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.