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Solomonoff’s paper models a computer-science community, partly made of artificial computer scientists, whose growth improves the efficiency of computing, which in turn speeds its growth; once that community is as large as the human one, the halving time of computing costs itself halves. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1985 · publication Wording attested 2006-07-16. The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope of the passage A conditional model of a partly artificial research community. Scope and limits The equations reach a finite-time divergence, which the author treats as a sign that they lose validity. The paper’s illustrative transitions take years or decades.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects ↗ Ray J. Solomonoff · 1985
Archived copy, captured 2006-07-16: The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects ↗
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Source excerpt “when the artificial intelligence community is as large as the human scientific community, the halving time itself will halve, so we get halving in two years instead of four.” Location in source Main text, milestones E–G and equations (1)–(3) (PDF pages 4–6)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Ray J. Solomonoff Version Author-hosted later typesetting, retrieved 2026-10-06 (hash matched the pre-1996 candidate search); byte-identical to the copy at world.std.com captured 2006-07-16. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2006-07-16: The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2006-07-16. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Ray J. Solomonoff, "The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence", Human Systems Management 5 (1985). Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked against the text layer of the retrieved PDF, which drops the "fi" ligature, on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Year of Human Systems Management 5, as given in the author’s file and publication list.
Record ID ts-a1-solomonoff-1985