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Drexler’s 1995 forecast comment argues that better computational and material tools accelerate further tool improvement, that a slow trickle of progress seems unlikely, and that computation and molecular machinery could reinforce each other while competing with other technologies. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1995 · publication Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element Better tools build better tools, without an intelligent system improving its own capacity. Scope and limits Drexler rejects a strict mathematical singularity and calls a reliable schedule impossible, while calling Vinge’s term remarkably appropriate.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Extropy, no. 15 (scan), "Future Forecasts" ↗ Extropy · 1995
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Paraphrase Improving computational and material tools speeds further improvement; a slow trickle seems unlikely; computation and molecular machinery could reinforce each other while competing with other paths. Drexler rejects a mathematical singularity but calls "Vernor’s term" remarkably appropriate.
Location in source p. 11 lower right, "ERIC DREXLER", continued on p. 12 lower left below the forecast table (PDF pages 9–10)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors K. Eric Drexler; Mark Miller; other contributors Version Photographic scan of the issue; printed pp. 10–13 (PDF pages 8–11) read by the pre-1996 candidate search and a machine check. Copy hosted at diyhpl.us. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Extropy no. 15 (2nd–3rd quarter 1995), "Future Forecasts". Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata and labelled paraphrases only: the inspected scan is a third-party copy whose permission to host is not established. Phrases in quotation marks inside a paraphrase identify the source's wording. Check notes Paraphrase from the pre-1996 candidate search, corrected after a machine check: the continuation is on p. 12 lower left, and the comment on Vinge’s term is added. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995.
Record ID ts-a3-drexler-1995-context