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Christiano’s post operationalises slow takeoff as a complete four-year interval in which world output doubles before the first one-year doubling, argues that it is more likely, and holds that recursive self-improvement, though it will lead to runaway growth, is not on its own an argument for a discontinuity. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2018-02-24 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope of the passage Argues for slow takeoff and against a discontinuity. Engagement Engages a premise. Gives a reason against the premise of a short transition: before AI is great at self-improvement it will be mediocre at it, so runaway growth need not be a discontinuity. Scope and limits A claim about the speed of the transition; the post says an intelligence explosion "seems very likely" and that it is not about whether one occurs.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Takeoff speeds ↗ The sideways view (Paul Christiano’s blog) · 2018-02-24
Archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗
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Source excerpt “There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles.” Location in source Section "Slow takeoff", subsection "Operationalizing slow takeoff"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Paul Christiano Version Current page, retrieved 2026-10-06; its bytes differ from the 1996–2022 candidate search’s retrieval while the quoted text matches. A machine check compared the capture of 2018-02-25, which was retrieved again on 2026-10-06. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗ . Captured 1 day after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2018-02-25. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Paul Christiano, "Takeoff speeds", The sideways view, 24 February 2018. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked against the current page on 2026-10-06. primary source Supports the claim
Takeoff speeds ↗ The sideways view (Paul Christiano’s blog) · 2018-02-24
Archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “Before there is AI that is great at self-improvement there will be AI that is mediocre at self-improvement. Powerful AI can be used to develop better AI (amongst other things). This will lead to runaway growth. This on its own is not an argument for discontinuity” Location in source Section "Reasons to expect fast takeoff", subsection "Recursive self-improvement"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Paul Christiano Version Current page, retrieved 2026-10-06; its bytes differ from the 1996–2022 candidate search’s retrieval while the quoted text matches. A machine check compared the capture of 2018-02-25, which was retrieved again on 2026-10-06. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2018-02-25: Takeoff speeds ↗ . Captured 1 day after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2018-02-25. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Paul Christiano, "Takeoff speeds", The sideways view, 24 February 2018. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked against the current page on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. The page shows "Posted on February 24, 2018" and an update of 27 February 2018; quotes also match the capture of 2018-02-25.
Record ID ts-a4-christiano-2018-takeoff-contests