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Cotra’s post assumes a "quite rapid takeoff" in which, once the scientist model is deployed, the effective supply of top-tier talent rises by orders of magnitude, packing decades of innovation into months. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2022-07-18 · publication Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope of the passage A premise of the hypothetical scenario. Scope and limits A premise of the scenario, which the author says feels significantly scarier than the author’s mainline view; the post holds that the training-game arguments broadly transfer to slower scenarios.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗ Alignment Forum and LessWrong · 2022-07-18
Archived copy, captured 2022-07-18: Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗
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Source excerpt “Quite rapid takeoff -- [...] after it’s deployed, the effective supply of top-tier talent is increased by orders of magnitude. This is enough to pack decades of innovation into months” Location in source Section "Basic setup: an AI company trains a “scientist model” very soon", list item "Quite rapid takeoff"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Text checked in the post’s first stored version through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06; content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2022-07-18: Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗ . Captured on the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2022-07-18. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Ajeya Cotra, "Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover", Alignment Forum and LessWrong, 2022-07-18. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked in the first stored version on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Posting time 2022-07-18T19:06:14Z.
Record ID ts-a4-cotra-2022