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Hanson’s message of 1998-09-10 says that history suggests future increases in growth rates, but is far from supporting the sudden "AI gods in a few weeks" scenarios proposed. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1998-09-10 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels. Scope and limits Argued from the record of past growth-rate transitions and from AI progress depending on many small insights; it does not address concealment.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Singularity: Human AI to superhuman (Extropians mailing list) ↗ Extropians mailing list · 1998-09-10
Archived copy, captured 2015-04-28: Singularity: Human AI to superhuman (Extropians mailing list) ↗
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Source excerpt “History does suggest future increases in growth rates, but this is far from support for the sudden "AI gods in a few weeks" scenarios proposed.” Location in source Message body, final unquoted paragraph
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Robin Hanson Version Archive HTML as served, retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash recorded by the 1996–2022 candidate search; quoted lines excluded when reading the author’s text. Archive at extropians.weidai.com. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2015-04-28: Singularity: Human AI to superhuman (Extropians mailing list) ↗ . Captured 6074 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2015-04-28. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Robin Hanson, "Singularity: Human AI to superhuman", Extropians mailing list, 1998-09-10. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked against the archive HTML on 2026-10-06 (hash matched the 1996–2022 candidate search). Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. Sent header: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:19:36 -0700 (sender-local date).
Record ID ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests