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Staring into the Singularity describes AI speed doubling two years after human equivalence, again a year later, and then after six months, three months and 1.5 months. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1996-11-18 · publication Wording attested 2000-12-04. The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 ("Updated: 08/31/2000") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text. Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element The doubling intervals shrink from two years to weeks, but the whole rise from human equivalence takes years, and no period of hours to months is given for it. Scope and limits Compare Yudkowsky’s message of 1997-09-24, which puts infinite speed three years after human-equivalent AI.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Staring into the Singularity (version 1.2.1) ↗ Eliezer S. Yudkowsky · 1996-11-18
Archived copy, captured 2000-12-04: Staring into the Singularity (version 1.2.1) ↗
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Source excerpt “If computing speeds double every two years, what happens when computer-based AIs are doing the research? [...] Two years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One year later, their speed doubles again. Six months - three months - 1.5 months ... Singularity.” Location in source "The short version", opening of the page
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer S. Yudkowsky Version Version 1.2.1, "Updated: 08/31/2000", in the raw Internet Archive capture of 2000-12-04; retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash recorded by the 1996–2022 candidate search. Personal website, sysopmind.com. Version date 2000-08-31 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2000-12-04: Staring into the Singularity (version 1.2.1) ↗ . Captured 95 days after the recorded version date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2000-12-04. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "Staring into the Singularity", version 1.2.1 (2000). Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes The same passage as the A5 record. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. The page states "Created: 11/18/1996"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19.
Record ID ts-a4-sits-context