Choose an institution to see its records and dossier, or choose a topic.
Through year 2027 · all records, including scheduled dates 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2008 2005 1965 Show Organisations and infrastructure All types Organisation Person Document Concept Infrastructure Public body Reset filters
94 people, organisations and other records · 122 relationships · 34 claims about a valueEverything recorded up to the chosen year, whether or not still in effect · Undated records included
Claim and evidence Close ×
Solomonoff’s paper gives illustrative times of about ten years and more for its later milestones. Copy claim link
Copy claim reference
Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1985 · publication Wording attested 2006-07-16. The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages. Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element The illustrative transitions take years or decades, not hours to months. Scope and limits Not a hard-takeoff forecast.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects ↗ Ray J. Solomonoff · 1985
Archived copy, captured 2006-07-16: The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Paraphrase About ten years from a machine at the level of one person to a research community’s equivalent, and further years in one scenario.
Location in source Main text, milestones F–G (PDF pages 4–5)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Ray J. Solomonoff Version Author-hosted later typesetting, retrieved 2026-10-06 (hash matched the pre-1996 candidate search); byte-identical to the copy at world.std.com captured 2006-07-16. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2006-07-16: The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2006-07-16. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Ray J. Solomonoff, "The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence", Human Systems Management 5 (1985). Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Paraphrase from the pre-1996 candidate search, checked against the text layer. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Year of Human Systems Management 5, as given in the author’s file and publication list.
Record ID ts-a4-solomonoff-1985-context