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Vinge’s text, forwarded by Robin Hanson on 1998-09-16, gives a taxonomy in which the singularity does not happen, or "We have a hard takeoff", or "We have a soft takeoff", and rates AI as having a high possibility of a hard takeoff. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1998-09-16 · publication Role Articulation, Earliest located use of the name Register (kind of text) Relay of another author Name used “hard takeoff” Scope and limits The earliest dated use of "hard takeoff" located; Vinge uses it without definition, and it is not evidence of coinage. The text is Vinge’s, relayed by Robin Hanson; it is not Hanson’s.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Singularity: Vinge responds (Extropians mailing list) ↗ Extropians mailing list · 1998-09-16
Archived copy, captured 2015-04-28: Singularity: Vinge responds (Extropians mailing list) ↗
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Source excerpt “For planning purposes, my vision the high level taxonomy is: / o (the null): The singularity doesn't happen (or is not recognizable). / o We have a hard takeoff. / o We have a soft takeoff.” Location in source Message body, Vinge’s taxonomy (bullet markers "o" kept; line breaks shown as " / ")
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Vernor Vinge Version Archive HTML as served, retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash recorded by the 1996–2022 candidate search; quoted lines excluded when reading the author’s text. Archive at extropians.weidai.com. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2015-04-28: Singularity: Vinge responds (Extropians mailing list) ↗ . Captured 6068 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2015-04-28. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Vernor Vinge, "Singularity: Vinge responds", Extropians mailing list, 1998-09-16. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked against the archive HTML on 2026-10-06 (hash matched the 1996–2022 candidate search); the bullet markers "o" are kept and " / " marks line breaks. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Sent header of Robin Hanson’s forwarding message: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:38:11 -0700. Vinge’s text gives an estimate as of 15 September; the forwarding date does not date the whole composition.
Record ID ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16