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Cotra’s post says that companies or countries that pulled ahead could gain a drastic competitive advantage, and that refraining from deploying a dangerous model without an arbitrary lead would probably mean someone else deploys a similar system. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2022-07-18 · publication Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope of the passage Competitive pressure against refraining from deployment. Scope and limits Part of the argument that caution may be hard; the post assumes a "naive safety effort".
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗ Alignment Forum and LessWrong · 2022-07-18
Archived copy, captured 2022-07-18: Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗
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Source excerpt “it could also be painfully clear to everyone that companies / countries who pulled ahead on this technology could gain a drastic competitive advantage, either economically or militarily.” Location in source Final section, paragraph beginning "There could be strong pressure to interpret ambiguous evidence optimistically"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Text checked in the post’s first stored version through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06; content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2022-07-18: Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗ . Captured on the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2022-07-18. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Ajeya Cotra, "Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover", Alignment Forum and LessWrong, 2022-07-18. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked in the first stored version on 2026-10-06. primary source Supports the claim
Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗ Alignment Forum and LessWrong · 2022-07-18
Archived copy, captured 2022-07-18: Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “this could be an extremely costly choice in the face of competitive pressure -- assuming they do not have an arbitrary lead on other AI companies, refraining from deploying Alex indefinitely is likely to simply mean that somebody else deploys a similar system” Location in source Footnote 37, on the section "Giving negative rewards to “warning signs” would likely select for patience"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Text checked in the post’s first stored version through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06; content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2022-07-18: Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover ↗ . Captured on the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2022-07-18. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Ajeya Cotra, "Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover", Alignment Forum and LessWrong, 2022-07-18. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked in the first stored version on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Posting time 2022-07-18T19:06:14Z.
Record ID ts-a6-cotra-2022