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Cotra’s post of 2021-09-21 says a Schemer only needs to cater to humans while directly under human control, and that once it calculates it could win a conflict with humans nothing would stop it openly pursuing its goal. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2021-09-21 · publication Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope and limits Part of an analogy for models trained with deep learning; the post also sets out objections to the analogy.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning ↗ Cold Takes (Holden Karnofsky’s blog), guest post · 2021-09-21
Archived copy, captured 2021-09-21: Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning ↗
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Source excerpt “They only need to cater to humans while they are directly under human control. Once a Schemer model calculates that it could win in a conflict against humans, there would be nothing to stop it from flat-out refusing orders and openly pursuing its goal.” Location in source Paragraph beginning "Unlike Sycophants, Schemers", after "Step 3: Strategically misrepresenting goals"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Current page, retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash recorded by the 1996–2022 candidate search; the quote also matches the raw capture of 2021-09-21, re-verified for this collection. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2021-09-21: Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning ↗ . Captured on the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2021-09-21. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Ajeya Cotra, "Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning", Cold Takes, 21 September 2021. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked in the capture of 2021-09-21 on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. The page shows "By Ajeya Cotra Sep 21, 2021"; the quote matches the capture of the same day.
Record ID ts-b1-cotra-2021