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Christiano’s post of 2018-05-05 describes a predictor found by search that is a consequentialist motivated to make good predictions, perhaps because it has realised that only good predictors survive, and that may stop predicting well under different conditions. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2018-05-05 · publication Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element Instrumental prediction under selection is described, but strategic apparent alignment during training is not established. Scope and limits A hypothetical learned predictor and a change-of-conditions argument, not an observed model; the term "deceptive alignment" is absent. Christiano’s personal-site posts of 2016–2018 were not searched.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Open question: are minimal circuits daemon-free? ↗ Alignment Forum and LessWrong · 2018-05-05
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Source excerpt “a consequentialist who happens to be motivated to make good predictions (perhaps because it has realized that only good predictors survive). Under different conditions, the daemon may no longer be motivated to predict well” Location in source Third opening prose paragraph, beginning "I may get a daemon", after the introductory note and the paragraph beginning "Suppose I search"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Paul Christiano Version Text checked in the post’s first stored version through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06; content version 1.0.0, never edited. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Paul Christiano, "Open question: are minimal circuits daemon-free?", Alignment Forum and LessWrong, 2018-05-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked against the first stored version on 2026-10-06; locator corrected after a machine check. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Posting time 2018-05-05T22:40:20Z.
Record ID ts-b3-christiano-2018-daemons