[ { "id": "commitments/external-commitments", "kind": "commitments", "version": 3, "title": "External commitments and obligations", "question": "What do external safety commitments and laws on frontier AI require, who signed them, when and in what scope, and which published frameworks link themselves to them in their own words?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "cm-wh-2023-07-published", "cm-wh-2023-07-amazon", "cm-wh-2023-07-anthropic", "cm-wh-2023-07-google", "cm-wh-2023-07-inflection-ai", "cm-wh-2023-07-meta", "cm-wh-2023-07-microsoft", "cm-wh-2023-07-openai", "prov-wh-2023-07-scope", "prov-wh-2023-07-model-weights", "prov-wh-2023-07-public-reporting", "prov-wh-2023-07-red-teaming", "prov-wh-2023-07-duration", "cm-link-rsp-2023-wh", "cm-link-rsp-v2-0-wh", "cm-link-rsp-v2-1-wh", "cm-link-rsp-v2-2-wh", "cm-wh-2023-09-published", "cm-wh-2023-09-adobe", "cm-wh-2023-09-cohere", "cm-wh-2023-09-ibm", "cm-wh-2023-09-nvidia", "cm-wh-2023-09-palantir", "cm-wh-2023-09-salesforce", "cm-wh-2023-09-scale-ai", "cm-wh-2023-09-stability-ai", "prov-wh-2023-09-scope", "cm-seoul-published", "cm-seoul-amazon", "cm-seoul-anthropic", "cm-seoul-cohere", "cm-seoul-g42", "cm-seoul-google", "cm-seoul-ibm", "cm-seoul-inflection-ai", "cm-seoul-meta", "cm-seoul-microsoft", "cm-seoul-mistral-ai", "cm-seoul-naver", "cm-seoul-openai", "cm-seoul-samsung-electronics", "cm-seoul-technology-innovation-institute", "cm-seoul-xai", "cm-seoul-zhipu", "cm-seoul-magic-ai", "cm-seoul-minimax", "cm-seoul-nvidia", "cm-seoul-zero-one-ai", "prov-fasc-2024-intolerable-thresholds", "prov-fasc-2024-no-development", "prov-fasc-2024-publish-framework", "prov-fasc-2024-threshold-input", "prov-fasc-2024-transparency-exception", "cm-link-rsp-v2-0-seoul", "cm-link-ms-fgf-2025-seoul", "cm-link-meta-faf-v1-1-seoul", "cm-link-rsp-v2-1-seoul", "cm-link-rsp-v2-2-seoul", "cm-link-ms-fgf-2026-seoul", "cm-eu-code-published", "cm-eu-code-intent-openai", "cm-eu-code-intent-anthropic", "cm-eu-code-intent-google", "cm-eu-code-intent-xai", "cm-eu-code-amazon", "cm-eu-code-anthropic", "cm-eu-code-cohere", "cm-eu-code-google", "cm-eu-code-ibm", "cm-eu-code-microsoft", "cm-eu-code-mistral-ai", "cm-eu-code-openai", "cm-eu-code-xai", "cm-eu-code-declined-meta", "prov-eu-code-tr-downstream-14-days", "prov-eu-code-ss-scope", "prov-eu-code-ss-specified-systemic-risks", "prov-eu-code-cr-robots-txt", "prov-eu-code-tr-documentation-retention", "prov-eu-code-ss-framework", "prov-eu-code-ss-incident-reporting-deadlines", "prov-eu-code-ss-proceed-only-if-acceptable", "prov-eu-code-ss-adherence-not-conclusive", "cm-link-ms-fgf-2026-eu-code", "cm-link-frontier-governance-2026-eu-code", "cm-link-faif-2026-eu-code", "sb-enactment-2025-09-29", "sb-catastrophic-risk-threshold", "sb-civil-penalty-cap", "sb-frontier-developer-definition", "sb-frontier-model-threshold", "sb-large-frontier-developer-threshold", "sb-anonymous-internal-reporting", "sb-whistleblower-anti-retaliation", "sb-critical-incident-15-days", "sb-framework-annual-review", "sb-framework-modification-30-days", "sb-framework-duty", "sb-critical-incident-24-hours", "sb-internal-use-risk-summaries", "sb-false-statement-prohibition", "sb-transparency-report", "sb-attorney-general-enforcement", "sb-calcompute-conditional-operation", "sb-federal-equivalence-pathway", "sb-system-card-deemed-compliance", "sb-link-faif-2025", "sb-link-ms-fgf-2026", "sb-link-rsp-v3-0", "sb-link-openai-fgf", "provchange-wh-2023-09-scope", "sb-anthropic-fcf-published", "faif-2026-compliance-sentence" ], "definition": { "documentIds": [ "wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07", "wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09", "frontier-ai-safety-commitments-2024", "gpai-code-of-practice-2025", "california-sb-53" ], "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "id": "external-commitments", "introduction": "Five texts are covered, in date order: the White House voluntary AI commitments of July and September 2023, the Frontier AI Safety Commitments of the AI Seoul Summit (May 2024), the EU General-Purpose AI Code of Practice (July 2025) and California SB 53 as chaptered (September 2025). Each comes with the record of its issue or enactment, the exact version inspected, a limited set of quoted provisions and the published framework editions that explicitly link themselves to it. Announcing an intent to sign, signing and appearing on a published list are recorded as separate stages, with any stated scope, such as a single chapter, and refusals are recorded as statements.", "limits": [ "A commitment, a signature or a legal duty is never evidence of compliance, implementation or effectiveness. When a framework says that it complies with, serves as or responds to a text, that is the framework’s own claim and is recorded as such.", "A listing is the convener’s or the Commission’s statement, dated by the list’s publication. It does not give the date on which an organisation signed, which is unknown unless the organisation announced it.", "Signatories are recorded for every organisation on the White House and Seoul lists. For the EU Code of Practice they are recorded only for organisations the dataset covers for other reasons; the Commission’s list names others, has lost names as well as gained them, and a signatory may withdraw at any time.", "A statute’s text sets out what it requires of the categories it defines. Whether a named company falls within a category, such as “large frontier developer” or a provider of a general-purpose AI model with systemic risk, is a question of legal application and is not recorded.", "Provisions are a limited, quoted selection, within the quotation policy’s limit for each document. They are not a summary of the text. A text without a recorded provision has not been shown to lack it.", "Enactment, publication and effective dates are kept apart and labelled. Conditions on which a provision depends, such as an appropriation, are recorded where stated and are not assumed to be met.", "Only links that a framework edition states in its own words are recorded. A missing link does not show that a framework does not respond to a text, and closeness in date never creates a link.", "Archived copies are existing Internet Archive captures. A capture shows only what the archive retrieved that day. It does not prove what the document said earlier." ], "openQuestions": [ { "claimIds": [ "cm-wh-2023-07-published", "cm-wh-2023-09-published" ], "documentId": "wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07", "id": "wh-apple-2024", "text": "The White House announced on 26 July 2024 that Apple had signed onto the voluntary commitments. The announcement does not say whether Apple took up the July or the September 2023 text, so no record links Apple to either." }, { "claimIds": [ "provchange-wh-2023-09-scope" ], "documentId": "wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09", "id": "wh-scope-change", "text": "The September 2023 text measures which models are in scope against each company’s own most advanced model, where the July text uses the industry frontier. The September text does not say whether its clause also applies to the seven companies of July 2023." }, { "claimIds": [ "cm-seoul-google" ], "documentId": "frontier-ai-safety-commitments-2024", "id": "seoul-google-identity", "text": "The GOV.UK text lists “Google”, while the UK government’s press release of the same day lists “Google / Google DeepMind”. Neither says which legal entity agreed." }, { "claimIds": [ "prov-fasc-2024-publish-framework" ], "documentId": "frontier-ai-safety-commitments-2024", "id": "seoul-framework-deadline", "text": "The commitments ask for a safety framework by “the upcoming AI Summit in France” without giving a date; the UK government’s press release of the same day places that summit in early 2025. Whether each organisation published a framework in time is not recorded." }, { "claimIds": [ "cm-eu-code-xai", "cm-eu-code-intent-xai" ], "documentId": "gpai-code-of-practice-2025", "id": "eu-chapters", "text": "The Commission’s list does not say which chapters each organisation signed. The exception is xAI: the Commission says it signed up to the Safety and Security chapter and must show compliance on transparency and copyright by other means. The provisions recorded here are quoted from that chapter." }, { "claimIds": [ "cm-eu-code-published" ], "documentId": "gpai-code-of-practice-2025", "id": "eu-list-changes", "text": "Of the 26 organisations listed on 1 August 2025, eight are absent from the page as last updated on 31 July 2026, which adds three others. The Commission gives no reasons; its questions and answers say a signatory may withdraw at any time. Every organisation recorded here is still listed." }, { "claimIds": [ "sb-anthropic-fcf-published" ], "documentId": "california-sb-53", "id": "anthropic-fcf-text", "text": "Anthropic announced its Frontier Compliance Framework on 19 December 2025 as its compliance framework for SB 53. The framework is served from a portal that loads its content by script, and its own text was not inspected for this page. No record therefore links the framework itself to SB 53. An archived copy has since been found and awaits verification." }, { "claimIds": [ "sb-link-rsp-v3-0", "sb-anthropic-fcf-published" ], "documentId": "california-sb-53", "id": "sb53-rsp-separate-documentation", "text": "Responsible Scaling Policy v3.0 names SB 53 only to say that statutory requirements with specific thresholds are addressed in separate compliance documentation. It does not present itself as Anthropic’s framework under the statute." }, { "claimIds": [ "sb-link-faif-2025", "faif-2026-compliance-sentence" ], "documentId": "california-sb-53", "id": "sb53-faif-compliance-sentence", "text": "xAI’s December 2025 framework states that it complies with the statute; the June 2026 edition does not contain that sentence. Neither the sentence nor its absence establishes compliance or non-compliance." } ], "question": "What do external safety commitments and laws on frontier AI require, who signed them, when and in what scope, and which published frameworks link themselves to them in their own words?", "stops": [ { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "prov-wh-2023-07-duration" ], "id": "wh-status-and-effect", "text": "Whether the 2023 White House commitments bind or ever bound the companies, and whether they remain in effect. The July text calls them voluntary and says the companies intend them to remain in effect until regulations covering substantially the same issues come into force." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cm-seoul-published" ], "id": "seoul-effect", "text": "Whether being listed for the Frontier AI Safety Commitments creates any obligation, and whether “agreed to”, “signed up to” and “endorse” (the wording of the text, of the UK press release and of company statements quoted in it) describe the same act." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cm-eu-code-published", "cm-eu-code-xai", "cm-eu-code-declined-meta" ], "id": "eu-signing-effect", "text": "The legal effect of signing or adhering to the EU Code of Practice, the consequence of xAI’s chapter-limited signature, and whether the Code goes beyond the AI Act, as Meta said in refusing to sign. The Commission’s opinion concludes that the Code adequately covers the obligations in Articles 53 and 55 of the Act; that is a different question." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "prov-eu-code-ss-scope" ], "id": "eu-provider-status", "text": "Whether any named company is a provider of a general-purpose AI model with systemic risk under the AI Act, to which the Safety and Security chapter is addressed." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "sb-frontier-developer-definition", "sb-large-frontier-developer-threshold" ], "id": "sb53-applicability", "text": "Whether SB 53 applies to a named company is a question of legal application, for example whether OpenAI, Google, Anthropic or xAI is a “frontier developer” or a “large frontier developer”. A competent secondary reference (METR, January 2026) states that such developers are governed by the statute. That statement is not recorded as a finding." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "sb-link-openai-fgf", "sb-framework-duty" ], "id": "sb53-alleged-violations", "text": "An advocacy organisation has alleged that OpenAI violated SB 53 in connection with model releases in 2026; OpenAI disputes this, partly by contesting how its own framework wording should be read. Whether any violation occurred is a question of legal effect and compliance and is not recorded." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "sb-link-openai-fgf", "sb-link-faif-2025", "sb-anthropic-fcf-published" ], "id": "sb53-company-designations", "text": "Company designations are recorded as the companies’ own statements, never as legal fact: OpenAI’s designation of its Frontier Governance Framework as its framework under the Act (and of an OpenAI operating company as responsible for compliance), xAI’s statement that its December 2025 framework complies, and Anthropic’s designation of its Frontier Compliance Framework." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "sb-federal-equivalence-pathway" ], "id": "sb53-preemption-carve-outs", "text": "The Act’s carve-outs for strict conflicts with federal contracts, federal preemption and local regulation (SEC. 5) and the federal-equivalence pathway’s effect on obligations require legal interpretation and are not recorded beyond the quoted text." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "sb-framework-duty", "sb-framework-modification-30-days", "sb-civil-penalty-cap" ], "id": "sb53-own-framework-compliance", "text": "What it means to comply with one’s own framework when the framework uses discretionary or hedged language, and what counts as a material modification or a substantially modified model, are questions of interpretation and are not recorded." } ], "title": "External commitments and obligations", "version": 3 } }, { "id": "control/anthropic", "kind": "control", "version": 1, "title": "Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026", "question": "How do Anthropic’s certificates of incorporation allocate the right to elect directors, which powers does the Long-Term Benefit Trust hold, and how have these changed?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "cs-anthropic-legal-form-2021", "cs-anthropic-ltbc-director-approval-2021", "lg-ant-razavi-board-2023", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-elects-directors", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-described-2023", "lg-ant-bahl-ltbt-trustee", "lg-ant-matheny-ltbt-trustee", "lg-ant-robinson-ltbt-trustee", "lg-ant-shah-ltbt-chair-2023", "prov-anthropic-coi-2023-09-21-class-t-phase-in", "lg-ant-matheny-ltbt-departure-2023", "prov-anthropic-coi-2024-01-29-class-t-phase-in", "provchange-anthropic-coi-2024-01-29-class-t-phase-in", "cs-christiano-anthropic-ltbt-trustee", "cs-kreps-anthropic-board-2024", "lg-ant-muehlhauser-board-departure-2024", "lg-ant-fontaine-ltbt-trustee", "cs-hastings-anthropic-board-2025", "cs-anthropic-legal-form-2025", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-class-t-consent", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-removes-directors", "lg-ant-bahl-ltbt-departure-2026", "lg-ant-cuellar-ltbt-trustee", "lg-ant-robinson-ltbt-departure-2026", "lg-ant-liddell-board-2026", "cs-narasimhan-anthropic-board-2026", "lg-ant-bernanke-ltbt-trustee-2026", "lg-ant-shah-ltbt-chair-2026", "lg-ant-cuellar-ltbt-departure-2026", "lg-ant-daniela-board-chair-2026", "cs-assessed-anthropic-ltbt-independence" ], "definition": { "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "entityIds": [ "anthropic", "anthropic-ltbc", "anthropic-ltbt", "anthropic-coi-2021-01-26", "anthropic-coi-2021-05-24", "anthropic-coi-2023-03-31", "anthropic-coi-2023-09-21", "anthropic-coi-2024-01-29", "anthropic-coi-2025-07-03", "anthropic-ltbt-announcement-2023" ], "extraClaimIds": [], "id": "anthropic", "introduction": "Anthropic was incorporated in Delaware in January 2021 as a public benefit corporation. The records below cover its legal form, the director-election and consent rights in the certificates of incorporation filed from 2021 to 2025, and the Long-Term Benefit Trust’s rights as the certificates state them and as Anthropic describes them. They also list the directors the Trust appointed and one open question: whether the Trust is independent enough of stockholders to provide effective oversight in practice. The certificates are Delaware-stamped copies published by AI Lab Watch. The Trust Agreement itself is not public.", "limits": [ "A control right is recorded as the document states it: who holds it, over which entity, through which instrument and at which stage. It is not an ownership share, and rows are never joined into a chain of control.", "The certificates give rights to classes of stock. That the Long-Term Benefit Trust holds the Class T stock rests on Anthropic’s statements; no share register was inspected.", "The certificate copies were obtained from the State of Delaware by AI Lab Watch and were read from page images. Certificates filed after 3 July 2025 were not inspected.", "The phase-in dates depend on board determinations that were not published, so the dates on which the Trust could elect its second and third directors are not recorded.", "Board and Trustee records cover documented roles only. Trustees have their own records only when the person is already in the dataset. The announcement record names the initial Trustees.", "The certificate copies have no Internet Archive capture. Archived copies are existing Internet Archive captures. A capture shows only what the archive retrieved that day. It does not prove what the document said earlier." ], "openQuestions": [ { "claimIds": [ "cs-narasimhan-anthropic-board-2026", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-elects-directors" ], "id": "anthropic-board-size", "text": "The latest inspected certificate fixes the board at five directors, but Anthropic’s announcement of April 2026 names seven. A later certificate, which might explain the difference, was not inspected." }, { "claimIds": [ "cs-anthropic-ltbt-described-2023", "cs-assessed-anthropic-ltbt-independence" ], "id": "anthropic-private-agreements", "text": "The Trust Agreement, the Voting Agreement and the Investors’ Rights Agreement are referred to in the certificates and by Anthropic but are not public. The Trust’s own terms, including how it can be enforced or amended, are known only from Anthropic’s and its counsel’s descriptions." }, { "claimIds": [ "cs-anthropic-ltbc-director-approval-2021", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-elects-directors" ], "id": "anthropic-committee-to-trust", "text": "The 2021 certificate’s Long-Term Benefit Committee could approve or reject director candidates. The Class T stock created in 2023 instead elects directors. Anthropic describes the committee as an earlier version of the Trust; the records do not establish continuity between the two bodies." } ], "organisationId": "anthropic", "question": "How do Anthropic’s certificates of incorporation allocate the right to elect directors, which powers does the Long-Term Benefit Trust hold, and how have these changed?", "stops": [ { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cs-anthropic-ltbt-described-2023", "cs-anthropic-ltbt-class-t-consent" ], "id": "anthropic-stockholder-failsafe", "text": "Whether stockholders can change or end the Long-Term Benefit Trust and its powers without the Trustees’ consent. Anthropic describes “failsafe” supermajority provisions, and Fried and Reiter call them a kill switch. The Trust Agreement is not public, and the certificate’s amendment thresholds would need legal interpretation." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cs-anthropic-ltbt-elects-directors" ], "id": "anthropic-trust-control", "text": "Whether the Trust’s director-election rights amount to control of Anthropic in law. Fried and Reiter describe the Trust as a controlling mission entity; the records state the rights without drawing that conclusion." }, { "category": "conflicting_dates", "claimIds": [ "prov-anthropic-coi-2024-01-29-class-t-phase-in", "cs-narasimhan-anthropic-board-2026" ], "id": "anthropic-phase-in-dates", "text": "The dates on which the Trust became entitled to elect a second and a third director. The certificates tie them to unpublished board determinations. AI Lab Watch wrote in June 2024 that the Final Phase-In Date was in November 2024, and Anthropic said in April 2026 that Trust-appointed directors had become a majority of the board. No decisive source was found." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [], "id": "anthropic-investor-approval-clause", "text": "Whether the clause in the certificates filed in 2024 and 2025, under which board approval of matters listed in the Investors’ Rights Agreement may require the vote of the director elected by certain preferred stockholders or of 61% of the directors, gives those investors a veto. The Investors’ Rights Agreement is not public." } ], "title": "Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026", "version": 1 } }, { "id": "control/openai", "kind": "control", "version": 1, "title": "OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026", "question": "Which entity has controlled OpenAI’s for-profit business, through which instrument and from when, and how did its boards change from November 2023?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "altman-openai-2015", "musk-openai-2015", "musk-openai-board-departure-2018", "cs-openai-990-2019-gp-llc-controls-lp", "cs-openai-990-2019-inc-controls-gp-llc", "atlas-openai-lp", "cs-openai-lp-announced-2019", "cs-openai-lp-board-control-2019", "lg-oai-adam-dangelo-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-greg-brockman-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-holden-karnofsky-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-ilya-sutskever-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-reid-hoffman-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-sam-altman-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-shivon-zilis-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-tasha-mccauley-nonprofit-board-2019", "lg-oai-hurd-board-2021", "lg-oai-toner-board-2021", "cs-openai-lp-to-opco-2023", "atlas-altman-departure", "cs-altman-board-departure-2023", "cs-brockman-chair-departure-2023", "atlas-altman-return", "cs-dangelo-initial-board-2023", "cs-summers-initial-board-2023", "cs-sutskever-board-departure-2023", "cs-taylor-chair-initial-board-2023", "cs-openai-990-2024-gp-llc-controls-global", "cs-openai-inc-legal-form-2024", "cs-altman-board-return-2024", "lg-oai-fidji-simo-board-2024", "lg-oai-nicole-seligman-board-2024", "lg-oai-sue-desmond-hellmann-board-2024", "lg-oai-nakasone-board-2024", "lg-oai-schulman-departure-2024", "lg-oai-kolter-board-2024", "lg-oai-weng-departure-2024", "cs-openai-structure-plan-2024", "lg-oai-ogunlesi-board-2025", "cs-openai-gp-llc-manages-opco", "atlas-openai-pbc-plan", "cs-openai-nonprofit-retains-control-2025", "atlas-openai-recapitalization", "cs-assessed-openai-recapitalization-control", "cs-delaware-ag-openai-statement-2025", "cs-openai-foundation-elects-pbc-directors", "cs-openai-foundation-pre-approval-pbc", "cs-openai-foundation-removes-pbc-directors", "cs-openai-group-pbc-legal-form-2025", "prov-delaware-ag-nfp-control", "prov-delaware-ag-ssc-authority", "prov-openai-group-pbc-cert-class-n-elections", "prov-openai-group-pbc-cert-class-n-pre-approval", "prov-openai-group-pbc-cert-director-removal", "prov-openai-group-pbc-cert-safety-mission", "lg-oai-david-velez-foundation-board-2026", "lg-oai-david-velez-pbc-board-2026", "lg-oai-robin-vince-foundation-board-2026", "lg-oai-robin-vince-pbc-board-2026", "lg-oai-taylor-pbc-chair-2026", "cs-christiano-openai-foundation-board-2026", "lg-oai-kolter-pbc-observer" ], "definition": { "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "entityIds": [ "openai-inc", "openai-lp", "openai-gp-llc", "openai-opco-llc", "openai-global-llc", "openai-group-pbc", "delaware-attorney-general", "openai-lp-announcement", "openai-structure-evolve-2024", "openai-pbc-plan", "openai-recapitalization", "openai-group-pbc-certificate-2025", "delaware-ag-openai-statement-2025" ], "extraClaimIds": [ "atlas-altman-departure", "atlas-altman-return" ], "id": "openai", "introduction": "OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit. The records below follow how the nonprofit and its subsidiaries have held control of the for-profit business: the capped-profit partnership announced in 2019, the operating company it became in 2023, and the public benefit corporation incorporated in October 2025. They also cover the board changes of November 2023 and after, the published restructuring plans, the Delaware Attorney General’s conditions and one open question: whether the Foundation can exercise effective control in practice. The sources are tax and court filings, a regulator’s decision, the filed certificate of incorporation and OpenAI’s own announcements.", "limits": [ "A control right is recorded as the document states it: who holds it, over which entity, through which instrument and at which stage. It is not an ownership share, and rows are never joined into a chain of control.", "Announcements, plans and representations to regulators record what OpenAI said it would do. The certificate of incorporation records what the filed text provides. Neither shows how the rights are used in practice.", "Tax filings report relationships in the form’s own terms, such as “direct controlling entity”. The records do not interpret those terms under corporate or partnership law.", "The Delaware Attorney General’s letter records OpenAI’s representations and the conditions for not objecting. Whether the conditions were met, and whether the representations bind OpenAI, needs legal interpretation and is not recorded.", "Board records cover documented roles and announced changes only. The reasons for the November 2023 events, and later reviews of them, are not recorded.", "OpenAI LP, OpenAI OpCo and OpenAI Group PBC keep separate identities. How one led to the next is recorded only as far as the sources state it.", "Archived copies are existing Internet Archive captures. A capture shows only what the archive retrieved that day. It does not prove what the document said earlier." ], "openQuestions": [ { "claimIds": [ "cs-openai-lp-board-control-2019", "cs-openai-990-2019-gp-llc-controls-lp" ], "id": "openai-general-partner", "text": "OpenAI’s 2019 announcement says its paperwork calls OpenAI Nonprofit the general partner, while the 2019 tax filing lists OpenAI GP LLC as the partnership’s direct controlling entity. Both statements are recorded. Neither settles which entity was the general partner in law." }, { "claimIds": [ "cs-openai-990-2024-gp-llc-controls-global" ], "id": "openai-holding-company", "text": "The UK Competition and Markets Authority calls OpenAI Global, LLC the holding company of OpenAI, while the 2024 tax filing also lists a separate OpenAI Holdings LLC. Which entity held which interest is not resolved here." }, { "claimIds": [ "cs-taylor-chair-initial-board-2023", "cs-openai-gp-llc-manages-opco" ], "id": "openai-microsoft-observer", "text": "OpenAI said in November 2023 that its new board would include a non-voting observer for Microsoft. An observer seat is not a control right and is not recorded as one. In March 2025 the Competition and Markets Authority found that Microsoft had material influence over OpenAI’s commercial policy but did not exercise de facto control over it." }, { "claimIds": [ "prov-delaware-ag-ssc-authority" ], "id": "openai-safety-committee-contract", "text": "OpenAI represented to the Delaware Attorney General that a contract would give the nonprofit’s Safety and Security Committee an effective approval right over the public benefit corporation’s safety and security actions. That contract was not inspected." } ], "organisationId": "openai", "question": "Which entity has controlled OpenAI’s for-profit business, through which instrument and from when, and how did its boards change from November 2023?", "stops": [ { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cs-delaware-ag-openai-statement-2025", "prov-delaware-ag-nfp-control", "prov-delaware-ag-ssc-authority" ], "id": "openai-ag-representations", "text": "Whether the representations recorded by the Delaware and California Attorneys General bind OpenAI, whether the stated conditions were met, and whether the Safety and Security Committee contract was signed and is enforceable." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cs-openai-foundation-elects-pbc-directors", "cs-openai-group-pbc-legal-form-2025" ], "id": "openai-control-in-law", "text": "Whether the Foundation’s Class N rights amount to control in law, for example under Delaware corporate law, tax-exemption rules or competition law, and how the for-profit business came to sit in OpenAI Group PBC (by merger, conversion or contribution)." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "prov-openai-group-pbc-cert-safety-mission", "prov-delaware-ag-ssc-authority" ], "id": "openai-safety-clause-wording", "text": "The Delaware letter records OpenAI’s representation that the charter’s safety clause covers the nonprofit’s Safety and Security Committee, while the filed charter refers to the public benefit corporation’s own board and committees. Whether the difference matters in law needs interpretation." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cs-christiano-openai-foundation-board-2026" ], "id": "openai-board-separation", "text": "Whether Paul Christiano’s appointment meets OpenAI’s representation that, within a year of the recapitalization, at least one current nonprofit director besides the committee chair would serve only on the nonprofit board." }, { "category": "legal_effect", "claimIds": [ "cs-openai-lp-to-opco-2023" ], "id": "openai-lp-to-opco", "text": "Whether the 2023 change from OpenAI, L.P. to OpenAI OpCo, L.L.C. was a conversion, a merger or another transaction, and what continuity of assets and obligations it implies." }, { "category": "living_person", "claimIds": [ "cs-altman-board-departure-2023", "cs-brockman-chair-departure-2023" ], "id": "openai-november-2023-reasons", "text": "The reasons the board gave for removing Sam Altman in November 2023, the findings of the review OpenAI summarised in March 2024, and commentary on the people involved." } ], "title": "OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026", "version": 1 } }, { "id": "documents/frontier-safety-frameworks", "kind": "documents", "version": 5, "title": "Frontier safety frameworks", "question": "What did each developer’s published safety framework say, when, what replaced it, and what changed between editions?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "anthropic-rsp-2023", "prov-rsp-2023-misuse-uplift-threshold", "prov-rsp-2023-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "prov-rsp-2023-pause-training", "prov-rsp-2023-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-2023-policy-change-approval", "prov-rsp-2023-weights-deletion-decision", "prov-rsp-2023-emergency-loosening", "prov-rsp-2023-trusted-user-access", "eval-i-rsp-christiano-credit", "rsp-credits-arc-2023", "cm-link-rsp-2023-wh", "issued-rsp-2-0", "supersedes-rsp-2-0", "provchange-rsp-v2-0-misuse-uplift-threshold", "provchange-rsp-v2-0-pause-training", "provchange-rsp-v2-0-policy-change-approval", "rsp-v2-0-assessed-weakening", "rsp-v2-asl-meaning", "prov-rsp-v2-0-misuse-uplift-threshold", "prov-rsp-v2-0-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "prov-rsp-v2-0-pause-training", "prov-rsp-v2-0-restrict-and-pause", "prov-rsp-v2-0-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v2-0-policy-change-approval", "prov-rsp-v2-0-lower-safeguards-if-others-pass", "prov-rsp-v2-0-may-proceed-with-safeguards", "prov-rsp-v2-0-security-alone-continue-training", "absent-rsp-v2-0-weights-deletion-decision", "cm-link-rsp-v2-0-seoul", "cm-link-rsp-v2-0-wh", "issued-rsp-2-1", "supersedes-rsp-2-1", "provchange-rsp-v2-1-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "rsp-v2-1-rd-thresholds", "prov-rsp-v2-1-misuse-uplift-threshold", "prov-rsp-v2-1-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "prov-rsp-v2-1-pause-training", "prov-rsp-v2-1-restrict-and-pause", "prov-rsp-v2-1-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v2-1-policy-change-approval", "prov-rsp-v2-1-lower-safeguards-if-others-pass", "prov-rsp-v2-1-may-proceed-with-safeguards", "cm-link-rsp-v2-1-seoul", "cm-link-rsp-v2-1-wh", "issued-rsp-2-2", "supersedes-rsp-2-2", "rsp-v2-2-insider-scope", "prov-rsp-v2-2-misuse-uplift-threshold", "prov-rsp-v2-2-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "prov-rsp-v2-2-pause-training", "prov-rsp-v2-2-restrict-and-pause", "prov-rsp-v2-2-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v2-2-lower-safeguards-if-others-pass", "prov-rsp-v2-2-may-proceed-with-safeguards", "cm-link-rsp-v2-2-seoul", "cm-link-rsp-v2-2-wh", "issued-rsp-3-0", "supersedes-rsp-3-0", "provchange-rsp-v3-0-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "provchange-rsp-v3-0-misuse-uplift-threshold", "rsp-v3-0-assessed-weakening", "rsp-v3-company-industry-split", "rsp-v3-risk-reports", "rsp-v3-roadmaps", "prov-rsp-v3-0-automated-rd-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-0-misuse-uplift-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-0-competitor-lead-delay", "prov-rsp-v3-0-competitor-parity", "prov-rsp-v3-0-competitor-upleveling", "prov-rsp-v3-0-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v3-0-marginal-risk-board-ltbt-approval", "prov-rsp-v3-0-industry-commitment-limit", "absent-rsp-v3-0-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "absent-rsp-v3-0-pause-training", "absent-rsp-v3-0-restrict-and-pause", "absent-rsp-v3-0-may-proceed-with-safeguards", "sb-link-rsp-v3-0", "issued-rsp-3-1", "supersedes-rsp-3-1", "provchange-rsp-v3-1-automated-rd-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-1-automated-rd-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-1-competitor-lead-delay", "prov-rsp-v3-1-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v3-1-marginal-risk-board-ltbt-approval", "absent-rsp-v3-1-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "issued-rsp-3-2", "supersedes-rsp-3-2", "rsp-v3-2-reviewer-approval", "prov-rsp-v3-2-novel-cb-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-2-competitor-lead-delay", "prov-rsp-v3-2-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v3-2-ltbt-regular-briefing", "prov-rsp-v3-2-ltbt-review-request", "prov-rsp-v3-2-marginal-risk-board-ltbt-approval", "absent-rsp-v3-2-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "issued-rsp-3-3", "supersedes-rsp-3-3", "provchange-rsp-v3-3-novel-cb-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-3-automated-rd-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-3-novel-cb-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-3-competitor-lead-delay", "prov-rsp-v3-3-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v3-3-ltbt-review-request", "prov-rsp-v3-3-marginal-risk-board-ltbt-approval", "absent-rsp-v3-3-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "issued-rsp-3-4", "supersedes-rsp-3-4", "provchange-rsp-v3-4-automated-rd-threshold", "rsp-v3-4-coverage-date", "rsp-v3-4-internal-reports", "prov-rsp-v3-4-automated-rd-threshold", "prov-rsp-v3-4-competitor-lead-delay", "prov-rsp-v3-4-ceo-rso-decision-board-ltbt-informed", "prov-rsp-v3-4-ltbt-review-request", "prov-rsp-v3-4-marginal-risk-board-ltbt-approval", "absent-rsp-v3-4-no-train-deploy-without-safeguards", "deepmind-fsf-2024", "prov-fsf-2024-alert-threshold", "prov-fsf-2024-autonomy-ccl", "prov-fsf-2024-evaluation-interval", "prov-fsf-2024-hold-pending-mitigations", "prov-fsf-2024-response-plan", "issued-fsf-2-0", "supersedes-fsf-2-0", "fsf-v2-security-levels", "provchange-fsf-v2-0-hold-pending-mitigations", "provchange-fsf-v2-0-response-plan", "prov-fsf-v2-0-alert-threshold", "prov-fsf-v2-0-hold-pending-mitigations", "prov-fsf-v2-0-response-plan", "prov-fsf-v2-0-government-disclosure", "prov-fsf-v2-0-pre-deployment-review", "prov-fsf-v2-0-response-plan-approval", "prov-fsf-v2-0-adoption-conditional-on-industry", "prov-fsf-v2-0-security-level-adjustment", "absent-fsf-v2-0-autonomy-ccl", "absent-fsf-v2-0-evaluation-interval", "issued-fsf-3-0", "supersedes-fsf-3-0", "fsf-v3-harmful-manipulation", "provchange-fsf-v3-0-alert-threshold", "provchange-fsf-v3-0-government-disclosure", "provchange-fsf-v3-0-pre-deployment-review", "provchange-fsf-v3-0-security-level-adjustment", "prov-fsf-v3-0-alert-threshold", "prov-fsf-v3-0-framework-update-review", "prov-fsf-v3-0-response-plan", "prov-fsf-v3-0-response-plan-distant-from-ccl", "prov-fsf-v3-0-government-disclosure", "prov-fsf-v3-0-pre-deployment-review", "prov-fsf-v3-0-alternative-security-adequacy", "prov-fsf-v3-0-deployment-mitigation-scope", "prov-fsf-v3-0-security-level-adjustment", "absent-fsf-v3-0-hold-pending-mitigations", "absent-fsf-v3-0-response-plan-approval", "absent-fsf-v3-0-adoption-conditional-on-industry", "issued-fsf-3-1", "supersedes-fsf-3-1", "fsf-v3-1-cbrn-tcls", "provchange-fsf-v3-1-alert-threshold", "provchange-fsf-v3-1-deployment-mitigation-scope", "provchange-fsf-v3-1-framework-update-review", "provchange-fsf-v3-1-pre-deployment-review", "provchange-fsf-v3-1-response-plan-distant-from-ccl", "prov-fsf-v3-1-alert-threshold", "prov-fsf-v3-1-framework-update-review", "prov-fsf-v3-1-response-plan", "prov-fsf-v3-1-response-plan-distant-from-ccl", "prov-fsf-v3-1-government-disclosure", "prov-fsf-v3-1-pre-deployment-review", "prov-fsf-v3-1-deployment-mitigation-scope", "prov-fsf-v3-1-low-risk-deployment-exemption", "issued-pf-beta", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-risk-level-scale", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-critical-development-restriction", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-high-deployment-restriction", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-final-decision-authority", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-leadership-without-sag", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-capabilities-development-condition", "prov-preparedness-beta-2023-safety-enhancing-development-exception", "issued-pf-2", "supersedes-pf-2", "pf-v2-persuasion-scope", "pf-v2-research-categories", "pf-v2-threshold-terms", "provchange-preparedness-v2-critical-development-restriction", "provchange-preparedness-v2-final-decision-authority", "provchange-preparedness-v2-high-deployment-restriction", "prov-preparedness-v2-critical-development-restriction", "prov-preparedness-v2-high-deployment-restriction", "prov-preparedness-v2-final-decision-authority", "prov-preparedness-v2-sag-determinations", "prov-preparedness-v2-marginal-risk-adjustment", "absent-preparedness-v2-safety-enhancing-development-exception", "assessed-preparedness-v2-high-deployment-mitigation", "fgf-applies-preparedness", "issued-fgf-2026", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-precautionary-threshold-treatment", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-systemic-risk-definition", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-residual-risk-deployment-gate", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-material-update-oversight", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-risk-acceptance-recommendations", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-update-legal-oversight", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-update-proposal-process", "prov-frontier-governance-2026-acceptable-risk-may-proceed", "cm-link-frontier-governance-2026-eu-code", "sb-link-openai-fgf", "issued-faif-2025", "prov-faif-2025-bio-chem-acceptance-criterion", "prov-faif-2025-mask-acceptance-criterion", "prov-faif-2025-benefits-may-outweigh-benchmark-risks", "prov-faif-2025-trusted-user-exception", "sb-link-faif-2025", "issued-faif-2026", "faif-2026-compliance-sentence", "prov-faif-2026-systemic-risk-acceptance-criteria", "prov-faif-2026-heightened-safeguards", "prov-faif-2026-proceed-only-if-acceptable", "prov-faif-2026-security-standard", "absent-faif-2026-bio-chem-acceptance-criterion", "absent-faif-2026-mask-acceptance-criterion", "absent-faif-2026-benefits-may-outweigh-benchmark-risks", "cm-link-faif-2026-eu-code", "issued-meta-faf-v1-1", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-critical-threshold", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-high-threshold", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-moderate-threshold", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-critical-development-measure", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-critical-pause-investigation", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-high-deployment-measure", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-approval-decision-authority", "prov-meta-faf-v1-1-uplift-assessment-approval", "cm-link-meta-faf-v1-1-seoul", "issued-meta-aasf-v2-0", "supersedes-meta-aasf-v2-0", "provchange-meta-aasf-v2-0-approval-decision-authority", "provchange-meta-aasf-v2-0-critical-development-measure", "provchange-meta-aasf-v2-0-critical-threshold", "provchange-meta-aasf-v2-0-high-deployment-measure", "provchange-meta-aasf-v2-0-high-threshold", "provchange-meta-aasf-v2-0-moderate-threshold", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-critical-threshold", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-high-threshold", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-moderate-threshold", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-critical-development-measure", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-high-deployment-measure", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-accountability-oversight", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-approval-decision-authority", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-threshold-assignment-authority", "prov-meta-aasf-v2-0-cb-high-external-deployment-exception", "absent-meta-aasf-v2-0-critical-pause-investigation", "absent-meta-aasf-v2-0-uplift-assessment-approval", "issued-ms-fgf-2025", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-cbrn-high-threshold", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-high-critical-predeployment-review", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-high-risk-security", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-pause-unmitigable-risk", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-deployment-decision-authority", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-framework-update-review", "prov-ms-fgf-2025-low-medium-deployment", "cm-link-ms-fgf-2025-seoul", "issued-ms-fgf-2026", "supersedes-ms-fgf-2026", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-cbrn-high-threshold", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-high-critical-predeployment-review", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-high-risk-security", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-incident-reporting", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-pause-unmitigable-risk", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-deployment-decision-authority", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-external-evaluator-decision", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-framework-update-review", "prov-ms-fgf-2026-low-medium-deployment", "cm-link-ms-fgf-2026-eu-code", "cm-link-ms-fgf-2026-seoul", "sb-link-ms-fgf-2026" ], "definition": { "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "families": [ "anthropic-rsp", "deepmind-fsf", "openai-preparedness", "openai-frontier-governance", "xai-faif", "meta-frontier-ai", "microsoft-frontier-governance" ], "id": "frontier-safety-frameworks", "introduction": "Each framework below lists the editions recorded here, oldest first, with the date each edition is identified by. An edition is shown as replacing another only where a record documents it from the publisher’s own version sequence. Date order alone never implies replacement. Recorded changes are selected, sourced differences between two editions. They describe what the documents say. They do not show whether any requirement was implemented, followed or effective. Each edition also lists a limited set of quoted provisions: thresholds, required actions, who decides and stated exceptions. Where competent sources disagree about what a provision or change means, the disagreement is kept as a separate assessment record, marked contested or unresolved.", "limits": [ "A published framework shows what its publisher stated. It does not show implementation, compliance, effectiveness or relative safety. This page does not compare or rank developers.", "Recorded changes are a selection of documented differences. They are not a full list of amendments, and an edition with no recorded change has not been shown to be unchanged.", "Effective, publication and revision dates are kept apart. Each edition shows only the dates that have been established. A missing date is unknown.", "Editions are grouped by publisher and framework name for navigation. A different framework from the same publisher counts as a successor only where a record says so.", "Provisions are a limited, quoted selection for each edition, within the quotation policy’s limit for each document. They are not a full summary. An edition without a recorded provision has not been shown to lack it. A “not found” record states exactly which text was inspected and never claims that a provision was deleted.", "Contested records show competing assessments side by side. Secondary commentary is admitted only as evidence of the disagreement, and the page does not decide between the sides.", "Archived copies are the existing Internet Archive captures nearest each edition’s date. A capture shows only what the archive retrieved that day. It does not prove what the document said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked for the evidence." ], "openQuestions": [ { "claimIds": [ "supersedes-pf-2", "assessed-preparedness-v2-high-deployment-mitigation" ], "family": "openai-preparedness", "id": "pf-v2-replacement", "text": "No OpenAI text inspected so far names the December 2023 Beta as the edition that Version 2 replaces, so the replacement record is unresolved and carries context evidence only. A separate question is contested: whether Version 2’s governance arrangements let OpenAI Leadership deploy High-capability models without sufficient safeguards. The two sides are an academic analysis of leadership discretion and OpenAI’s stated predeployment requirement. The rule’s text itself is recorded as a supported provision." }, { "claimIds": [ "issued-meta-faf-v1-1" ], "family": "meta-frontier-ai", "id": "meta-v1-1-expressions", "text": "Two different texts carry the Version 1.1 label: the earliest archive capture (2025-02-13) and a revised wording captured from 2025-03-28 onwards. The provisions quote the earlier text. No announcement of the revision was found." }, { "claimIds": [ "issued-ms-fgf-2026" ], "family": "microsoft-frontier-governance", "id": "ms-fgf-2026-date", "text": "The February 2026 edition is identified by its version month. Its publication date is not established. The file was last modified on 2026-03-24 and first captured on 2026-04-24." }, { "claimIds": [ "rsp-v2-0-assessed-weakening", "rsp-v3-0-assessed-weakening" ], "family": "anthropic-rsp", "id": "rsp-assessed-changes", "text": "Two questions remain open. Did the v2.0 revision make Anthropic’s commitments less verifiable? Do v3.0’s roadmap and transparency mechanisms compensate for its reduced unilateral commitments? Each record keeps the published assessments as context, because none directly opposes another on the same question. The changes to the text are recorded separately." }, { "claimIds": [ "faif-2026-compliance-sentence", "issued-faif-2025", "issued-faif-2026" ], "family": "xai-faif", "id": "xai-faif-succession", "text": "No record links the June 2026 edition to the December 2025 edition as its replacement, because no explicit statement that one supersedes the other was found. The one recorded difference was inferred by comparing the two documents. It is not based on a statement by xAI." }, { "claimIds": [ "issued-faif-2025", "issued-faif-2026" ], "family": "xai-faif", "id": "xai-faif-dates", "text": "The December 2025 edition is identified by its printed “last updated” date. The file name carries a different day, as the date note records. Neither edition has an established publication day of its own." }, { "claimIds": [ "fgf-applies-preparedness" ], "family": "openai-frontier-governance", "id": "fgf-preparedness-version", "text": "The Frontier Governance Framework is recorded as applying relevant parts of the continuing Preparedness approach. Its announcement names no Preparedness version. The link therefore points to the Preparedness framework as a whole rather than to Version 2, and the new framework is not recorded as its successor." }, { "claimIds": [ "issued-rsp-2-0", "issued-rsp-2-1", "issued-rsp-2-2", "issued-rsp-3-1", "issued-rsp-3-2", "issued-rsp-3-3", "issued-rsp-3-4" ], "family": "anthropic-rsp", "id": "rsp-publication-days", "text": "Most Responsible Scaling Policy revisions are identified by their effective dates. Where no publication day was established, none is inferred." } ], "question": "What did each developer’s published safety framework say, when, what replaced it, and what changed between editions?", "title": "Frontier safety frameworks", "version": 5 } }, { "id": "propositions/economics-of-machine-intelligence", "kind": "propositions", "version": 2, "title": "Economics of machine intelligence", "question": "Which located texts, from 1952 to 2026, state, contest or bear on propositions about the economics of machine intelligence? Three strands are recorded. The first is the debate over whether machine intelligence could make economic growth explosive. The second is how mainstream economics treated automation, computers and AI. The third is how economists took up recursive self-improvement, superintelligence and existential risk from AI, ideas mostly discussed outside economics. For each proposition, which text by an economist is the earliest located, and which text outside that group?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b", "ec-g01-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b", "ec-g01-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a", "ec-g01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-g01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a", "ec-g01-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a", "ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a", "ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c", "ec-g01-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a", "ec-g02-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-c", "ec-g02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b", "ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a", "ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c", "ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b", "ec-g02-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a", "ec-g02-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a", "ec-g03-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a", "ec-g03-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b", "ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a", "ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a", "ec-g03-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a", "ec-g03-roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory-a", "ec-g03-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a", "ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a", "ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b", "ec-g04-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-c", "ec-g04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-g04-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a", "ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c", "ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a", "ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c", "ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c", "ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c", "ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a", "ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b", "ec-g05-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c", "ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c", "ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c", "ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b", "ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a", "ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a", "ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a", "ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a", "ec-g07-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-g08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a", "ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a", "ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a", "ec-g09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-g09-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a", "ec-g09-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a", "ec-g09-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a", 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"ec-e01-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b", "ec-e02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b", "ec-e02-hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky-a", "ec-e02-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-e02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b", "ec-e02-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a", "ec-e02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a", "ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a", "ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b", "ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a", "ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b", "ec-e02-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b", "ec-e02-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b", "ec-e02-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-b", "ec-e02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand-b", "ec-e02-restrepo-2025-we-wont-be-missed-b", "ec-e03-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b", "ec-e03-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-b", "ec-e03-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-e03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a", "ec-e03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b", "ec-e03-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-a", "ec-e03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b", "ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a", "ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a", "ec-e03-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-b", "ec-e03-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a", "ec-e03-jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights-a", "ec-e03-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-a", "ec-e04-hanson-2008-friendliness-factors-a", "ec-e04-hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom-b", "ec-e04-hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products-a", "ec-e04-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-a", "ec-e04-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-b", "ec-e04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b", "ec-e04-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b", "ec-e04-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-b", "ec-e04-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b", "ec-e04-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-a", "ec-e04-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-a", "ec-e04-bueno-de-mesquita-dziuda-polborn-2026-agi-race-a", "ec-e05-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-b", "ec-e05-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b", "ec-e05-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b", "ec-e05-hanson-2008-what-core-argument-b", "ec-e05-hanson-2013-foom-debate-again-b", "ec-e05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a", "ec-e05-hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial-b", "ec-e05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a", "ec-e05-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a", "ec-e05-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-a", "ec-e05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a", "ec-e05-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b", "ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a", "ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b", "ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a", "ec-e05-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b", "ec-e05-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-a", "ec-e05-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b", "ec-e05-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b", "ec-e05-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-a", "ec-e05-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-b", "ec-e05-brynjolfsson-korinek-agrawal-2025-research-agenda-transformative-ai-b", "ec-e05-andrews-farboodi-2025-markets-transformative-ai-b" ], "definition": { "axis": { "from": 1950, "ticks": [ "1952", "1966", "1984", "2000", "2015", "2024" ], "to": 2026 }, "corrections": [ { "claimIds": [ "ec-g01-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a", "ec-g01-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a" ], "propositionId": "explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution", "reason": "Re-tiered as tier 1 after the re-checks of 2026-10-25: Besiroglu held an economics degree before the text. Davidson’s report (2021), whose toy scenario of AI robots substituting for all human labour meets the criterion, is now the tier-2 earliest.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-25", "replaced": "Erdil and Besiroglu’s review (2023), headlined as the earliest located tier-2 text." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a", "ec-g03-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a" ], "propositionId": "long-run-history-suggests-acceleration", "reason": "Earlier text found by the re-checks of 2026-10-25: Hanson’s “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner?” (June 1998, attested 1999-01-28) makes the inference itself; the 2000 paper relays his own 1998 projection.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-25", "replaced": "Hanson’s undated “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (attested 2000-08-19), headlined as earliest located from 2026-10-10." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a" ], "propositionId": "explosive-growth-estimates", "reason": "Removed after the re-checks of 2026-10-25: the passage relays the author’s separate, self-cited projection, not an estimate the text makes itself. No tier-1 text holds the headline until the lead named under “How we searched” is checked (maintainer decision of 2026-10-25).", "recordedAt": "2026-10-25", "replaced": "Hanson’s undated “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (attested 2000-08-19), headlined as earliest located from 2026-10-10." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-a", "ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2016-simple-economics-of-machine-intelligence-a" ], "propositionId": "ai-as-cheaper-prediction", "reason": "Earlier text found by the re-checks of 2026-10-25: the same authors’ essay in the Harvard Business Review (17 November 2016, attested 2016-11-25), an economists’ magazine essay and so tier 1.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-25", "replaced": "Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb’s working paper (January 2018), headlined as earliest located." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m06a-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-a", "ec-m06a-diebold-1955-automation-condensation-a" ], "propositionId": "automation-lowers-labour-income", "reason": "Earlier text found by the re-checks of 2026-10-25: the condensation of Diebold’s book Automation printed with his statement of 14 October 1955 in the congressional hearings.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-25", "replaced": "The report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress (1966), headlined as the earliest located tier-2 text." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m06b-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-a", "ec-m06b-diebold-1955-automation-condensation-a", "ec-m06b-reuther-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a" ], "propositionId": "compensating-policy-for-ai", "reason": "Earlier texts found by the re-checks of 2026-10-25 in the 1955 congressional hearings: the Diebold condensation of 14 October, on management’s share of responsibility for retraining and restoring the earning power of displaced workers, which counts as another compensating policy as the criterion is written, and Reuther’s statement of 17 October.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-25", "replaced": "The report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress (1966), headlined as the earliest located tier-2 text." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a", "ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a" ], "propositionId": "long-run-history-suggests-acceleration", "reason": "Earlier text found by the audit: Hanson’s undated “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”, attested 2000-08-19.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-10", "replaced": "Hanson’s “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000), headlined as earliest located in the first pass." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a", "ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a" ], "propositionId": "explosive-growth-estimates", "reason": "Earlier text found by the audit: Hanson’s undated “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”, attested 2000-08-19.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-10", "replaced": "Hanson’s “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000), headlined as earliest located in the first pass." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g05-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c", "ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c" ], "propositionId": "other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth", "reason": "Earlier text found by the audit: Nordhaus (2015) answers the physical-limits objection. Davidson’s report is tier 2 and is now the tier-2 earliest.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-10", "replaced": "Davidson’s report (2021), headlined as the earliest located text that contests it in the first pass." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g02-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-c", "ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c" ], "propositionId": "accelerating-growth-from-automated-research", "reason": "Short-form commentary is tier 2 under the rule of 2026-10-11, so it is now the tier-2 earliest. Aghion, Jones and Jones (2017) is the earliest located tier-1 text that contests it.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-11", "replaced": "Hanson’s comment on Vinge (1998), headlined as the earliest located text that contests it before texts were sorted into tiers." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b" ], "propositionId": "long-run-history-suggests-acceleration", "reason": "Reclassified as bearing on it after the cross-family check: the same turn grants that past acceleration is a reason to think it could happen again.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-10", "replaced": "The Asterisk debate (2023), headlined as the earliest located text that contests it in the first pass." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b", "ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a" ], "propositionId": "no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth", "reason": "Reclassified as bearing on it after the cross-family check: he reports two positive tests of seven and concludes that the singularity is not near, which is not “no sign yet”. No tier-1 text now articulates G06.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-10", "replaced": "Nordhaus (2015), headlined as earliest located in the first pass." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a", "ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a" ], "propositionId": "machine-substitution-lowers-wages", "reason": "An author’s standing is judged when the text was written (2026-10-12). In 1994 he held no economics degree or appointment, so the essay is tier 2 and is now the tier-2 earliest.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-12", "replaced": "Hanson’s “If Uploads Come First” (1994), headlined as the earliest located tier-1 text on 2026-10-11." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m01-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b" ], "propositionId": "automation-as-ordinary-technical-change", "reason": "Reclassified as bearing on it after the cross-family check. No tier-1 text now contests M01.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-12", "replaced": "Nourse’s statement of 1955, headlined as the earliest located text that contests it." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b" ], "propositionId": "ai-as-task-automation", "reason": "Reclassified as bearing on it after the cross-family check. No tier-1 text now contests M02.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-12", "replaced": "Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb (2019), headlined as the earliest located text that contests it." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b", "ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-a" ], "propositionId": "machines-cheaper-at-every-task", "reason": "Reclassified as bearing on it after the cross-family check. Acemoglu and Restrepo’s working paper, dated by its checked revision of June 2017, is now earliest located, as a model scenario.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-12", "replaced": "Nordhaus (2015), headlined as earliest located." }, { "claimIds": [ "ec-m09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b", "ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a" ], "propositionId": "recent-economics-engagement-with-ai", "reason": "Reclassified as bearing on it after the cross-family check: his remark concerns the singularity in macroeconomics. The introduction to the NBER volume of 2019 is now earliest located.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-12", "replaced": "Nordhaus (2015), headlined as earliest located." } ], "earliestEmpty": "No located tier-1 text meets the criterion.", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "groups": [ { "description": "Whether machine intelligence could make growth far faster than historical rates, the constraints argued against it, the evidence offered on both sides, and each text’s own estimate. Thirteen texts from 1994 to 2024.", "id": "G", "label": "The explosive-growth debate", "propositionIds": [ "explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution", "accelerating-growth-from-automated-research", "long-run-history-suggests-acceleration", "unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth", "other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth", "no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth", "machine-substitution-lowers-wages", "modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect", "explosive-growth-estimates" ] }, { "description": "How economists and economics venues treated automation, computers and AI from 1952 to 2024: as ordinary technical change, as the automation of tasks, as a general-purpose technology or as cheaper prediction, and what they said about wages, policy, measurement and the field itself. M06 is split into M06a and M06b. M09 states the prior that mainstream economics took up machine intelligence only recently; it is tested against the dated record, not confirmed.", "id": "M", "label": "Mainstream economics, automation and AI", "propositionIds": [ "automation-as-ordinary-technical-change", "ai-as-task-automation", "ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag", "ai-as-cheaper-prediction", "machines-cheaper-at-every-task", "automation-lowers-labour-income", "compensating-policy-for-ai", "task-based-exposure-measurement", "ai-productivity-over-next-decade", "recent-economics-engagement-with-ai" ] }, { "description": "Whether economists took up machine intelligence that improves itself, machine intelligence beyond human level in essentially all domains and existential risk from AI, how developers’ incentives bear on safety, and what texts say about the state of economics on these questions. Texts from 1998 to 2026, mostly NBER working papers, with Robin Hanson’s texts of 1998 to 2000 and posts from his 2008 debate with Eliezer Yudkowsky. E05 counts only explicit statements about the state of economics; economists’ engagement itself is recorded under E01 to E04.", "id": "E", "label": "Superintelligence and existential risk", "propositionIds": [ "ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability", "machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains", "ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis", "ai-developer-incentives-and-safety", "economics-engagement-with-superintelligence" ] } ], "id": "economics-of-machine-intelligence", "introduction": "Each proposition has one criterion. It is phrased generically and attributed to no one. A text that meets the criterion articulates the proposition. A text that disputes it, or a premise it depends on, contests it, and the record says whether the passage gives a reason against a premise or states the contrary only. A text that comes close bears on it, and its record names what is missing. A result from a formal model is shown with the conditions under which the model derives it. Each text carries a tier: tier 1 for scholarly work by economists and for the core economics journals and working-paper series, tier 2 for other texts. Texts are listed in date order. The page records what texts say and when. It does not assess whether an argument or a model is right.", "landing": "{propositions} propositions on the economics of machine intelligence, and {records} records from {texts} texts, 1952–2026, that state, contest or bear on them: the explosive-growth debate, how mainstream economics treated automation and AI, and how economists took up superintelligence and existential risk from AI. Each text carries its tier, and model results their conditions. The page can be downloaded as a research starter, with the original sources first.", "landingAction": "Read the economics propositions →", "limits": [ "“Earliest located” means the earliest text found by the searches described under “How we searched”, by economists unless the page says tier 2. It is not a claim that no earlier text exists.", "A record documents what a text says. It is not evidence that the proposition is true or that a model is right, and no record links one text to another.", "A tier records who wrote a text and in which form, judged when it was written. It is not a ranking of quality.", "A model result holds only under its recorded conditions. An estimate is its author’s, under the author’s definition and horizon, and estimates from different texts are not comparable without them.", "Each record carries the date its work is dated by. Where the quoted wording is known only from a later copy or revision, the date from which it is attested is shown, and that date decides which text is earliest located.", "A passage that would mislead on its own is marked “shown only with its context” and is never shown without that context.", "Codes such as M05-20 in qualifications refer to the passages of the research packs the records come from.", "A machine selected and classified these records, and machine checks from two model families re-examined them. No person has reviewed them." ], "mostDevelopedEmpty": null, "question": "Which located texts, from 1952 to 2026, state, contest or bear on propositions about the economics of machine intelligence? Three strands are recorded. The first is the debate over whether machine intelligence could make economic growth explosive. The second is how mainstream economics treated automation, computers and AI. The third is how economists took up recursive self-improvement, superintelligence and existential risk from AI, ideas mostly discussed outside economics. For each proposition, which text by an economist is the earliest located, and which text outside that group?", "searchNote": { "corrections": "A text found later that is earlier than the earliest located text becomes the new earliest located text. The earlier headline stays on record as a correction.", "gaps": [ "I. J. Good’s 1965 chapter could not be read in either archive capture, which are truncated. Good appears only as later texts relay him.", "Herbert Simon’s The Shape of Automation (1965) was not retrieved. Nordhaus (2015) and Armer (1966) relay its forecast that computers could do any work a person can do, and Simon may state M05 in his own voice.", "The journal versions of the working papers were not compared, among them Acemoglu’s article in Economic Policy (2025), whose publisher refused requests (HTTP 403). Whether that version changes the M08 figures is unknown.", "A review of 1931 in the Journal of Political Economy whose title names robots could not be retrieved (HTTP 403), so what “robots” means in it is unknown.", "Roodman’s technical paper behind his 2020 post was not retrieved. Davidson’s report and its appendices were searched, not read in full.", "Hanson’s 1994 essay was read in a web reprint captured in 1998. The printed issue of Extropy, which the dataset holds as a scan, was not compared with the quoted wording.", "Full texts of JEP, AER and AEA Papers and Proceedings articles, of JSTOR and of Google Books were not reachable. The AER and the JEL before 1999 were not covered at title level. OpenAlex, the IMF and the OECD were not searched.", "Books, podcasts, social media and comment threads were not searched, apart from one comment recorded under G03 and G09. The non-English literature was searched only in Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja and one ETLA search.", "A text found later that is earlier than an earliest located text, or written by an economist, would change the headlines. Twenty-one texts not retrieved are listed as leads in the research pack, among them Simon (1965) and Kai Husso’s 1992 chapter on the diffusion of AI in Finland.", "G09 has no earliest located tier-1 text for now (maintainer decision of 2026-10-25). Hanson’s “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (December 2000; first version September 1998), already recorded under G09, is an unchecked lead for the role: its attested wording and its link to machine intelligence have not been compared for this purpose, and the 1998 first version was not retrieved.", "For M05, Hanson’s “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” models machines doing most jobs but says: “We have not, however, considered the possibility of creating new kinds of jobs” (p. 12), so it does not meet M05’s condition on tasks created later. Leontief’s “The Distribution of Work and Income” (Scientific American, 1982), which that paper cites, is an open lead; its text could not be retrieved.", "Institutional forecasts, such as those of Goldman Sachs (2023) and the McKinsey Global Institute (2023), both cited by Acemoglu (2024), give earlier ten-year estimates that would bear on M08. They are outside the collection’s scope until a rule for selecting institutional sources exists (maintainer decision of 2026-10-25).", "G06 has no tier-1 articulating text under its literal wording. Nordhaus (2015) reports two positive tests of seven and concludes that the singularity is not near, so his record bears on G06. Rewording the criterion is an open decision.", "M09’s tier-1 articulating record is a self-description of 2019. It must be read with the dated record from 1952 onward, which runs against a plain reading that economics took up the subject only recently.", "E05’s earliest located tier-1 text is Nordhaus (2015), a statement about the state of the field. It must be read with the records under E01 to E04, which show economists engaging with these ideas from 1998.", "For the strand on superintelligence and existential risk, books were not searched, among them Hanson’s The Age of Em (2016) and Cowen’s Average Is Over (2013), nor Hanson’s article in IEEE Spectrum (2008), economics blogs beyond the compiled debate, or journals outside the title census. Puhakka’s editorial in Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja 3/2024 was not read." ], "methods": [ "Machine searches read each text proposition by proposition: abstracts, introductions, conclusions and objection sections in full, and long texts by targeted search.", "Every quotation was compared by script with the checked copy of its text, after normalising spacing, quotation marks, dashes and line-break hyphenation. Quotations are at most 50 words, and the quoted words from one document stay within 400, or about a tenth of a short text.", "Each text is dated by its own date line, cover or title page. Where the quoted wording is known only from a later copy, such as an archive capture or a revision of a working paper, the record also gives the date from which that wording is attested, and that date decides which text is earliest located. A journal year never dates a working paper’s wording.", "Tiers follow the maintainer’s rule of 2026-10-11, with an author’s standing as an economist judged when the text was written (2026-10-12). Each record gives the basis of its tier.", "A passage engages a premise when its section, dialogue turn or message gives a reason against that premise. Otherwise it is recorded as stating the contrary.", "Results from formal models are recorded with their conditions. Model scenarios counted as articulating M05 are labelled as such and shown only with their context (maintainer decision of 2026-10-11). Estimates under G09 are recorded one per text and holder, as worded, and are never converted to a common threshold.", "Fresh-context audits by Claude models re-read every passage. Checks by an OpenAI GPT-6 model then re-examined 49 of 65 passages of the explosive-growth strand and 62 passages and four Finnish texts of the mainstream strand. Correction passes applied their findings on 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-12; for the mainstream strand the maintainer accepted every final disagreement. No person has reviewed the records.", "The records were admitted on 2026-10-14 from two research packs. One quotation was shortened to keep it within 50 words; its wording is unchanged.", "On 2026-10-25 a same-family fresh-context machine check re-examined every tier and every earliest located role of the first two strands, and a blind cross-family machine check re-examined 19 of its items against the recorded captures and the hearing scans. The maintainer decided their disagreements the same day: one text was re-tiered, six records were added, five earliest located roles moved and one was withheld. In that correction pass web.archive.org refused connections, so passages read only in archive captures rest on the GPT check.", "For the strand on superintelligence and existential risk, an OpenAI GPT-6 model checked all 119 passages blind on 2026-10-15 and found every quotation matching. Its 22 disagreements on classification were decided on the evidence the same day, and the maintainer decided on 2026-10-15 how E05 is read. The 20 passages read in Internet Archive captures could not be read again at admission, because the archive refused connections; they rest on that check, which retrieved the same captures. The strand was admitted on 2026-10-16. Three passages were held back to keep within the quotation limit for Hanson’s 1998 comment, and one quotation was shortened to 50 words with its wording unchanged." ], "scope": "The collection records what located texts from 1952 to 2026 say about the propositions below. “Earliest located” means the earliest text found by the searches below, within tier 1 unless the page says tier 2. It is not a claim that no earlier text exists.", "venues": [ { "items": [ "Robin Hanson: “If Uploads Come First” (1994), “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner?” (1998, read for this strand on 2026-10-25), his comment on Vernor Vinge’s singularity concept (1998), “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (undated, attested 2000) and “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000).", "William D. Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity?” (2015); Philippe Aghion, Benjamin F. Jones and Charles I. Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017); Philip Trammell and Anton Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2020, text of 2021); Daron Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024).", "David Roodman, “Modeling the Human Trajectory” (2020), with Holden Karnofsky’s comment on it; Tom Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021); the Asterisk debate between Matt Clancy and Tamay Besiroglu (2023); Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu’s review of the arguments (arXiv, 2023).", "Texts were chosen from a starting list and from the texts these cite or answer directly. Each was read in an Internet Archive capture or a dated arXiv version, retrieved on 2026-10-08 and later re-checked." ], "period": "The explosive-growth debate, 1994 to 2024" }, { "items": [ "A census of titles: every Crossref record registered under the AER, QJE, JPE, Econometrica, REStud, JEP, JEL and AEA Papers and Proceedings, and under the NBER DOI prefix, 81,884 records, matched against terms for AI, machine learning, automation and computers. Crossref coverage is uneven: AER and JEL records start in 1999 and JEP in 1987.", "Full texts of NBER working papers on AI and automation, four chapters of the NBER volume The Economics of Artificial Intelligence (2019), Frey and Osborne (2013), Eloundou and others (arXiv, 2023), Nilsson (AI Magazine, 1984) and Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1999). Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb’s essay in the Harvard Business Review (2016) was added on 2026-10-25.", "Abstract pages only for articles in the JEP, the AER and AEA Papers and Proceedings, whose full texts were refused, and the publisher’s standfirst only for Leontief’s “Machines and Man” (Scientific American, 1952).", "The 1955 congressional hearings on automation and technological change, the 1966 report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress with its second appendix volume, Bowen and Mangum’s 1966 condensation, and Leontief and Duchin’s 1984 report to the National Science Foundation, read in Internet Archive text layers.", "Texts were retrieved directly from publishers, NBER, arXiv and the Internet Archive on 2026-10-09, as current copies. An archive capture was not available, so a current copy does not authenticate earlier bytes." ], "period": "Mainstream economics, 1952 to 2024" }, { "items": [ "Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja: the archive of 147 issues was crawled on 2026-10-09 and searched in Finnish and English terms for automation, computers and AI (2,854 PDFs; 32 without a text layer). Issues from 3/2023 to 3/2026 were searched through their titles and abstracts only.", "The crawl found 247 texts on automation, computers or AI, listed with checked quotations in the research pack (research/economics-mainstream/kak.md). They were classified by subject, not against the propositions here, so they are not records on this page.", "ETLA Brief 22 (Pajarinen and Rouvinen, 2014), read in its abstract, is recorded under M07." ], "period": "The Finnish strand" }, { "items": [ "Robin Hanson: “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner?” (Journal of Transhumanism, 1998), his comment on Vernor Vinge’s singularity concept (1998) and “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (undated, attested 2000), read in Internet Archive captures. Posts from his 2008 debate with Eliezer Yudkowsky and two later posts, read in the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s compilation of 2013; the date of “AI Go Foom” was checked on the original page.", "The NBER working papers on AGI, transformative AI or existential risk from AI that the title census found (2018 to 2026), among them Gans (2018, 2023), Jones (2023, 2025), Korinek and Suh (2024), and the October 2023 version and April 2026 revision of Trammell and Korinek, whose wording differs. Five papers of 2025 and 2026, whose full texts were refused (HTTP 403), and Jones’s article in AER: Insights (2024) were read as abstract pages only.", "Texts already in the collection, re-read for these propositions: Sachs and Kotlikoff (2012), Nordhaus (2015), Aghion, Jones and Jones (2017), Korinek and Stiglitz (2017), the introduction and Tyler Cowen’s chapter of the NBER volume (2019) and Acemoglu (2024). Ari Hyytinen’s editorial in Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja (4/2017).", "The title census of the mainstream strand, extended to AER: Insights, was searched for terms such as superintelligence, singularity, intelligence explosion, AGI, existential risk and takeoff, and the Finnish texts for their Finnish equivalents. Texts were retrieved on 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-11 and, except the Internet Archive captures, retrieved again on 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-16." ], "period": "Superintelligence and existential risk, 1998 to 2026" } ] }, "tiers": { "1": "Scholarly work by economists in any venue, including their essays in magazines, and any text in a core economics venue, whoever wrote it. An economist has an economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text, or an established record as an economist when the text was written. The core venues are the five leading general economics journals, the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the Journal of Economic Literature, AER Papers and Proceedings, NBER working papers and the NBER Economics of AI volume, and Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja for the Finnish texts.", "2": "Texts by non-economists, whatever the venue, and short-form commentary even by economists: blog comments, forum replies, and magazine or online debates, unless a turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument." }, "title": "Economics of machine intelligence", "version": 2 } }, { "id": "propositions/superintelligence", "kind": "propositions", "version": 1, "title": "Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022", "question": "Which located texts from 1863 to 2022 state, dispute or bear on propositions about machine intelligence? The propositions concern intelligence rising faster than earlier change, and people’s means of observing and directing it becoming inadequate. For each, which text is the earliest located?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "ts-a1-butler-1863-context", "ts-a1-turing-c1951-context", "ts-a1-good-1965", "ts-a1-moravec-1979", "ts-a1-vinge-1983-context", "ts-a1-solomonoff-1985", "ts-a1-drexler-1986", "ts-a1-moravec-1989-context", "ts-a1-extropy-1991-context", "ts-a1-vinge-1993", "ts-a1-eder-1994-context", "ts-a1-drexler-1995-context", "ts-a1-burkhead-1996", "ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30", "ts-a1-bostrom-1996-09-04", "ts-a1-sits", "ts-a1-more-1998-contests", "ts-a1-hanson-1998-09-24-contests", "ts-a1-aipnfgr", "ts-a1-shulman-2009", "ts-a1-iem", "ts-a1-christiano-2018-takeoff", "ts-a2-turing-1947-context", "ts-a2-turing-1950-context", "ts-a2-dartmouth-1955-context", "ts-a2-good-1965-context", "ts-a2-mckinstry-1994-context", "ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209", "ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context", "ts-a2-catai", "ts-a2-cfai", "ts-a2-logi", "ts-a2-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests", "ts-a3-turing-1947-context", "ts-a3-turing-1950-context", "ts-a3-dartmouth-1955-context", "ts-a3-wiener-1960-context", "ts-a3-minsky-1961-context", "ts-a3-good-1965-context", "ts-a3-moravec-1979", "ts-a3-solomonoff-1985-context", "ts-a3-drexler-1986-context", "ts-a3-moravec-1989-context", "ts-a3-vinge-1993-context", "ts-a3-mckinstry-1994-context", "ts-a3-drexler-1995-context", "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context", "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-31-context", "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-03", "ts-a3-bostrom-1996-09-04", "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-04", "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context", "ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209", "ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context", "ts-a3-catai", "ts-a3-hanson-1998-09-24-context", "ts-a3-finney-1999-contests", "ts-a3-cfai-context", "ts-a3-aipnfgr", "ts-a3-logi", "ts-a3-yudkowsky-2008-rsi", "ts-a3-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff", "ts-a3-iem", "ts-a3-christiano-2018-takeoff", "ts-a4-butler-1863-context", "ts-a4-erewhon-1872-context", "ts-a4-turing-c1951-context", "ts-a4-turing-1951-context", "ts-a4-wiener-1960-context", "ts-a4-vinge-1983-context", "ts-a4-solomonoff-1985-context", "ts-a4-drexler-1986-context", "ts-a4-moravec-1989-context", "ts-a4-extropy-1990-context", "ts-a4-extropy-1991-context", "ts-a4-extropy-1992-context", "ts-a4-vinge-1993", "ts-a4-hanson-1994-context", "ts-a4-eder-1994-context", "ts-a4-miller-1995-context", "ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context", "ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context", "ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests", "ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context", "ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04", "ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07", "ts-a4-sits-context", "ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context", "ts-a4-more-1998-contests", "ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context", "ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests", "ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16", "ts-a4-cfai", "ts-a4-aipnfgr", "ts-a4-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests", "ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-rsi", "ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff", "ts-a4-iem", "ts-a4-arbital-daemons-context", "ts-a4-christiano-2018-takeoff-contests", "ts-a4-christiano-2019-wflf-context", "ts-a4-agi-ruin-context", "ts-a4-christiano-2022-context", "ts-a4-cotra-2022", "ts-a5-butler-1863-context", "ts-a5-turing-1950-context", "ts-a5-wiener-1960-context", "ts-a5-minsky-1961-context", "ts-a5-good-1965", "ts-a5-moravec-1979", "ts-a5-solomonoff-1985", "ts-a5-drexler-1986", "ts-a5-moravec-1989", "ts-a5-vinge-1993", "ts-a5-eder-1994-context", "ts-a5-drexler-1995-context", "ts-a5-burkhead-1996", "ts-a5-bostrom-1996-09-04", "ts-a5-sits", "ts-a5-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff", "ts-a5-christiano-2018-takeoff", "ts-a5-cotra-2022", "ts-a6-erewhon-1872-context", "ts-a6-vinge-1993", "ts-a6-hanson-1994", "ts-a6-drexler-1995-context", "ts-a6-hanson-1996-09-03-contests", "ts-a6-bostrom-1996-09-04", "ts-a6-denotter-1998", "ts-a6-sandberg-1998-contests", "ts-a6-aipnfgr", "ts-a6-shulman-2009", "ts-a6-grace-2014-treacherous-turn", "ts-a6-christiano-2018-takeoff-contests", "ts-a6-cotra-2022", "ts-b1-vinge-1993-context", "ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context", "ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context", "ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context", "ts-b1-cfai", "ts-b1-grace-2014-schedule-context", "ts-b1-grace-2014-treacherous-turn", "ts-b1-corrigibility", "ts-b1-arbital-context-disaster", "ts-b1-rlo-2019-deceptive", "ts-b1-cotra-2021", "ts-b1-christiano-2022-contests", "ts-b1-cotra-2022", "ts-b2-erewhon-1872-context", "ts-b2-drexler-1986", "ts-b2-vinge-1993", "ts-b2-bostrom-1996-09-03", "ts-b2-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context", "ts-b2-crocker-1996-12-31-contests", "ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142", "ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159", "ts-b2-yudkowsky-2000-09-28", "ts-b2-cfai", "ts-b2-yudkowsky-2002-aibox-context", "ts-b2-grace-2014-treacherous-turn", "ts-b2-corrigibility", "ts-b2-arbital-programmer-deception", "ts-b2-christiano-2019-wflf", "ts-b2-agi-ruin", "ts-b2-christiano-2022-contests", "ts-b2-cotra-2022", "ts-b3-turing-1950-context", "ts-b3-michie-1968-context", "ts-b3-drexler-1986-context", "ts-b3-rosenfelder-1991-context", "ts-b3-vinge-1993-context", "ts-b3-yudkowsky-2000-09-28-context", "ts-b3-arbital-daemons-context", "ts-b3-christiano-2018-daemons", "ts-b3-christiano-2019-wflf", "ts-b3-rlo-2019-intro", "ts-b3-rlo-2019-deceptive", "ts-b3-agi-ruin", "ts-b3-hubinger-2022", "ts-b4-drexler-1986-context", "ts-b4-cotra-2021", "ts-b4-hubinger-2022", "ts-b5-erewhon-1872-context", "ts-b5-wiener-1960-context", "ts-b5-drexler-1986-context", "ts-b5-vinge-1993-context", "ts-b5-bostrom-1996-09-03-context", "ts-b5-crocker-1996-12-31-contests", "ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142", "ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159", "ts-b5-atkins-2000", "ts-b5-hibbard-2006-contests", "ts-b5-aipnfgr", "ts-b5-grace-2014-treacherous-turn", "ts-b5-loosemore-2015-contests", "ts-b5-arbital-context-disaster", "ts-b5-arbital-programmer-deception", "ts-b5-christiano-2018-daemons-context", "ts-b5-christiano-2019-wflf-context", "ts-b5-cotra-2021-context", "ts-b5-agi-ruin", "ts-b5-christiano-2022-contests", "ts-b5-cotra-2022-context", "ts-b6-butler-1863", "ts-b6-butler-1865-contests", "ts-b6-erewhon-1872", "ts-b6-erewhon-1872-contests", "ts-b6-turing-c1951", "ts-b6-turing-1951-context", "ts-b6-wiener-1960", "ts-b6-samuel-1960-contests", "ts-b6-good-1965", "ts-b6-michie-1968-contests", "ts-b6-vinge-1983-context", "ts-b6-drexler-1986-contests", "ts-b6-vinge-1993", "ts-b6-hanson-1994-context", "ts-c1-turing-1950-context", "ts-c1-michie-1968", "ts-c1-rosenfelder-1991", "ts-c1-gudeman-1991", "ts-c1-rosenfelder-1992", "ts-c1-franzen-1992-contests", "ts-c1-mccullough-1992-contests", "ts-c1-mckinstry-1994-context", "ts-c2-turing-1950", "ts-c2-drexler-1986", "ts-c2-rosenfelder-1991", "ts-c3-vinge-1993" ], "definition": { "corrections": [ { "claimIds": [ "ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30", "ts-a1-good-1965" ], "propositionId": "intelligence-explosion", "reason": "Earlier text found: Good’s chapter of 1965, located by the pre-1996 candidate search.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Clemmensen’s Extropians message of 1996-08-30, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a1-burkhead-1996", "ts-a1-good-1965" ], "propositionId": "intelligence-explosion", "reason": "Earlier text found: Good’s chapter of 1965 itself.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Burkhead’s Extropians message of 1996-08-10, a relay of Good, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a1-more-1998-contests", "ts-a1-good-1965" ], "propositionId": "intelligence-explosion", "reason": "Its wording is attested only from 2000-08-17, and Good’s chapter of 1965 uses the name.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "More’s comment of 1998 on Vinge, headlined as the earliest located use of “intelligence explosion” by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a2-catai", "ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209" ], "propositionId": "seed-ai", "reason": "Its wording is attested only from 2001-01-26. Yudkowsky’s Extropians message of 1998-09-07 describes a seed AI in dated words.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Coding a Transhuman AI (1998), headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context", "ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-03" ], "propositionId": "recursive-self-improvement", "reason": "Reclassified as context: it asserts positive feedback but not that the system improves its own capacity to improve. Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-03 states the feedback.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Clemmensen’s Extropians message of 1996-08-30, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07", "ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04", "ts-a4-vinge-1993" ], "propositionId": "fast-or-hard-takeoff", "reason": "Earlier texts found: Clemmensen’s own message of 1996-09-04 and, before both, Vinge’s paper of 1993.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Clemmensen’s Extropians message of 1996-09-07, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context", "ts-a4-vinge-1993" ], "propositionId": "fast-or-hard-takeoff", "reason": "Reclassified as context: the rapid scenario gives no period and names no hard or fast takeoff.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Bostrom’s Extropians message of 1996-09-04, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a5-sits", "ts-a5-bostrom-1996-09-04", "ts-a5-good-1965" ], "propositionId": "ai-automated-ai-research", "reason": "Its wording is attested only from 2000-12-04. Earlier texts found: Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 and Good’s chapter of 1965.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Staring into the Singularity, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a5-burkhead-1996", "ts-a5-good-1965" ], "propositionId": "ai-automated-ai-research", "reason": "Earlier text found: Good’s chapter of 1965 itself.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Burkhead’s Extropians message of 1996-08-10, a relay of Good, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-a6-bostrom-1996-09-04", "ts-a6-denotter-1998", "ts-a6-vinge-1993" ], "propositionId": "race-compression", "reason": "Earlier text found: Vinge’s paper of 1993.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Bostrom’s Extropians message of 1996-09-04 and den Otter’s of 1998-06-23, each headlined as earliest located for one branch of the criterion by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context", "ts-b1-cfai" ], "propositionId": "treacherous-turn", "reason": "Reclassified as context: it states persuasive lying to gain release, not a later change of behaviour. Creating Friendly AI (2001) is now earliest located.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Yudkowsky’s Extropians message of 1996-12-31, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-b1-grace-2014-treacherous-turn", "ts-b1-grace-2014-schedule-context" ], "propositionId": "treacherous-turn", "reason": "The same reading group’s schedule of 2014-08-31 uses the name as a session title. A comment of 2014-07-29 links a title with the name; comments were not searched.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Grace’s summary of 2014-11-25, headlined as the earliest located defining use of “treacherous turn” by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-b2-bostrom-1996-09-03", "ts-b2-vinge-1993" ], "propositionId": "strategic-concealment", "reason": "Earlier text found: Vinge’s paper of 1993.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Bostrom’s Extropians message of 1996-09-03, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-b5-bostrom-1996-09-03-context", "ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142" ], "propositionId": "observed-behaviour-as-evidence", "reason": "Reclassified as context: it discusses apparent decency in deployment without saying that behaviour under evaluation fails to carry over.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Bostrom’s Extropians message of 1996-09-03, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-b5-aipnfgr", "ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142" ], "propositionId": "observed-behaviour-as-evidence", "reason": "Earlier text found: Yudkowsky’s Extropians message of 1996-12-31. The chapter’s wording is dated by its draft of 2006-02-05.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Yudkowsky’s chapter on AI and global risk (2008), headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." }, { "claimIds": [ "ts-b3-christiano-2018-daemons", "ts-b3-christiano-2019-wflf" ], "propositionId": "deceptive-alignment", "reason": "Reclassified as context by the check of the earliest located records: it describes good prediction under selection, not a learned system behaving as aligned during training. Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 is now earliest located.", "recordedAt": "2026-10-06", "replaced": "Christiano’s post of 2018-05-05, headlined as earliest located by the 1996–2022 candidate search." } ], "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "groups": [ { "description": "Propositions that machine intelligence could rise, or be raced towards, much faster than earlier technological change.", "id": "A", "label": "Temporal compression", "propositionIds": [ "intelligence-explosion", "seed-ai", "recursive-self-improvement", "fast-or-hard-takeoff", "ai-automated-ai-research", "race-compression" ] }, { "description": "Propositions that what people can observe of a capable system, or their means of directing it, may stop being adequate as the system becomes more capable.", "id": "B", "label": "Changing epistemic adequacy", "propositionIds": [ "treacherous-turn", "strategic-concealment", "deceptive-alignment", "scheming", "observed-behaviour-as-evidence", "control-or-purpose-specification" ] }, { "description": "Three propositions kept apart from B5, B2 and A6, whose criteria are narrower. They were looked for only before mid-1996.", "id": "C", "label": "Wider senses recorded separately", "propositionIds": [ "behavioural-tests-as-evidence", "designed-deception-of-testers", "competition-defeats-restraint" ] } ], "id": "superintelligence", "introduction": "Each proposition has one criterion. A text that meets it articulates the proposition. A text that disputes it, or a premise it depends on, contests it. A text that comes close bears on it, and its record names what is missing. Every record links to the passage it rests on and gives the text’s register: fiction, satire, a dream frame or a relay of another author is labelled. Texts are listed in date order. The order records no influence between them.", "limits": [ "“Earliest located” means the earliest text found by the searches described under “How we searched”. It is not a claim that no earlier text exists.", "A record documents what a text says, in its register. It is not evidence that the proposition is true, and no record links one text to another.", "Most developed is an editorial judgement among the located texts. None is named for B6 and C1–C3, which were looked for only before mid-1996.", "Quotations are short and come from sources whose reuse permits them. Other passages are labelled paraphrases, including every in-copyright text read in a third-party copy.", "Each record carries the date its work is dated by. Where the quoted wording survives only in a later copy, the date from which it is attested is shown, and that date decides which text is earliest located.", "A machine selected and classified these records, and three machine checks re-examined them. No person has reviewed them." ], "question": "Which located texts from 1863 to 2022 state, dispute or bear on propositions about machine intelligence? The propositions concern intelligence rising faster than earlier change, and people’s means of observing and directing it becoming inadequate. For each, which text is the earliest located?", "searchNote": { "corrections": "A text found later that is earlier than the earliest located text becomes the new earliest located text. The earlier headline stays on record as a correction.", "gaps": [ "The Extropians list before 1996-07-25, from 1991, is not in the public archive used and was not searched.", "HathiTrust full-text search and the Google Books API refused scripted requests on 2026-10-06 (HTTP 403 and 429), so neither library was searched.", "Good’s 1965 chapter cites three earlier texts by Good for the explosion argument: a 1951 review of a book by D. R. Hartree, an IBM report of 1959 (RC-115) and “The social implications of artificial intelligence” (The Scientist Speculates, 1962–63). None was retrieved, nor were Good’s talks and drafts of 1962–64.", "The search before 1863 used Butler’s own wording, so it could not find earlier statements in other words.", "Google Groups refused requests (HTTP 429), and Usenet beyond the ten Carnegie Mellon bundles was not searched.", "LessWrong and the Alignment Forum were not searched in full text; comments and linked posts were not read.", "Bostrom’s Superintelligence (2014), which later texts credit for the term “treacherous turn”, was not read in a legally accessible copy. Christiano’s ai-alignment.com posts (2016–2018) were not searched.", "Moravec’s Mind Children (1988) and the 1986 printing of Engines of Creation were not obtained.", "Many texts survive only in later versions: reprints marked as changed, archive captures and posts edited after posting. Each record names the version checked.", "B6 and C1–C3 were looked for only before mid-1996, so no most-developed text is named for them.", "Fiction was not surveyed. Erewhon is the only novel recorded." ], "methods": [ "Sources were retrieved directly by script, one request at a time, using archive captures where the original page is gone.", "Every quotation was compared with the retrieved text, or with page images where a scan has no text layer or its OCR is unreliable.", "Internet Archive full-text screens looked for selected wordings before the earliest located texts. Each screen read the first 20 hits and finds only the phrasings searched.", "Each record gives the date its work is dated by. Where the quoted wording survives only in a later copy, the record also gives the date from which that wording is attested, and that date decides which text is earliest located.", "Two separate machine checks re-examined the candidate records, one by an OpenAI GPT-6 model for 1996–2022 and one by a Claude Opus 5.5 model for the earlier texts. A third, by an OpenAI GPT-6 model, re-read every earliest located record in its sources. Their corrections are applied. No person has reviewed the records.", "The third check verified the article text of Butler’s 1863 letter but could not retrieve the column images (HTTP 403), so it did not recheck the printed wording." ], "scope": "The collection records what located texts from 1863 to 2022 say about the propositions below. “Earliest located” means the earliest text found by the searches below. It is not a claim that no earlier text exists.", "venues": [ { "items": [ "Samuel Butler’s letters in The Press, Christchurch (1863, 1865), read in archived Papers Past pages; the 1863 letter was compared with column images.", "Erewhon: the 1872 printing in Internet Archive page images, and the revised text of 1901 in the Project Gutenberg transcription.", "Alan Turing’s typescripts in the King’s College archive (1947–1951) and Turing’s 1950 paper in Mind.", "Norbert Wiener’s 1960 article in Science and the indexed abstract of Arthur Samuel’s reply.", "I. J. Good’s 1965 chapter in two public scans; the Dartmouth proposal (1955), Marvin Minsky (1961), Donald Michie (1968, read in the 1986 reprint) and Ray Solomonoff (1985, read in the author’s later typesetting).", "Vernor Vinge’s 1983 Omni column and 1993 NASA proceedings paper; Hans Moravec (1979, 1989); K. Eric Drexler’s Engines of Creation (1986, read in the 1997 web edition) and 1995 forecast.", "Extropy magazine, issues 7–16 (1991–1996): selected articles.", "Usenet: ten bundles of the Carnegie Mellon comp.ai and comp.ai.philosophy archives (3,901 files) and one relayed sci.nanotech post." ], "period": "1863 to mid-1996" }, { "items": [ "The Extropians mailing list from 1996-07-25: all subject lines to 2002-02 screened, and 1,854 matching messages of 1996–2000 searched in full, with 28 more found by following threads.", "The SL4 mailing list, 2000–2012: subjects screened in all 142 monthly indexes, and 647 matching messages searched.", "Eliezer Yudkowsky’s early web pages, through Internet Archive captures.", "Publications of the Singularity Institute and MIRI, mostly in later reprints, with the 2001 web editions compared where they are cited.", "The 2008 Hanson–Yudkowsky debate on Overcoming Bias.", "LessWrong and the Alignment Forum: selected posts with their first stored versions, and seven topic tags listed by date.", "Arbital pages, read through a third-party viewer.", "Personal sites of Robin Hanson, Nick Bostrom, Paul Christiano and Bill Hibbard, Ajeya Cotra’s guest post on Cold Takes, and two formally published papers." ], "period": "mid-1996 to 2022" } ] }, "title": "Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022", "version": 1 } }, { "id": "propositions/yudkowsky-arguments", "kind": "propositions", "version": 1, "title": "Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026", "question": "Which located texts by Eliezer Yudkowsky, from 1996 to 2026, state, contest or bear on 29 claims often made about advanced AI? For each claim, which of his located texts is the earliest to contest it, and which earlier views of his did later texts of his contest?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "yk-y01-extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761-c", "yk-y01-extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420-c", "yk-y01-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c", "yk-y01-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b", "yk-y01-sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551-c", "yk-y01-sl4-2002-09-19-yudkowsky-0209-5571-b", "yk-y01-sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174-c", "yk-y01-arbital-instrumental-convergence-c", "yk-y01-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y01-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y02-staring-into-the-singularity-b", "yk-y02-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a", "yk-y02-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3184-a", "yk-y02-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-c", "yk-y02-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c", "yk-y02-sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355-c", "yk-y02-sl4-2001-04-12-yudkowsky-0104-1076-c", "yk-y02-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c", "yk-y02-lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments-c", "yk-y02-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-c", "yk-y02-arbital-orthogonality-c", "yk-y03-sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355-c", "yk-y03-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y03-lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes-c", "yk-y03-lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine-b", "yk-y03-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the-c", "yk-y04-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c", "yk-y04-extropians-1999-02-24-yudkowsky-2293-b", "yk-y04-extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837-b", "yk-y04-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c", "yk-y04-sl4-2003-05-29-yudkowsky-0305-6846-c", "yk-y04-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c", "yk-y04-lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes-c", "yk-y04-lw-2008-magical-categories-c", "yk-y04-lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why-c", "yk-y05-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-b", "yk-y05-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587-c", "yk-y05-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c", "yk-y05-sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381-c", "yk-y05-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c", "yk-y05-sl4-2005-08-09-yudkowsky-0508-11866-b", "yk-y05-lw-2007-thou-art-godshatter-b", "yk-y05-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y05-lw-2023-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi-goals-c", "yk-y05-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the-c", "yk-y06-extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142-c", "yk-y06-extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159-c", "yk-y06-ai-box-experiment-page-c", "yk-y06-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y07-sl4-2005-01-02-yudkowsky-0501-10512-c", "yk-y07-sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621-c", "yk-y07-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c", "yk-y07-lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-c", "yk-y07-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c", "yk-y07-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y07-lw-2026-cat-belling-problems-c", "yk-y08-extropians-1999-01-06-yudkowsky-0160-c", "yk-y08-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017-b", "yk-y08-sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11477-c", "yk-y08-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y08-sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174-c", "yk-y08-lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they-c", "yk-y08-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c", "yk-y08-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c", "yk-y08-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y09-lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures-c", "yk-y09-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c", "yk-y10-extropians-1996-11-13-yudkowsky-2941-c", "yk-y10-extropians-1996-11-16-yudkowsky-3042-c", "yk-y10-staring-into-the-singularity-c", "yk-y10-extropians-1998-09-18-yudkowsky-2487-c", "yk-y10-yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement-c", "yk-y10-iem-2013-c", "yk-y11-extropians-1998-09-08-yudkowsky-2235-c", "yk-y11-extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487-c", "yk-y11-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017-b", "yk-y11-sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046-b", "yk-y11-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c", "yk-y11-sl4-2001-01-24-yudkowsky-0101-0452-c", "yk-y11-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c", "yk-y11-sl4-2004-12-29-yudkowsky-0412-10488-c", "yk-y11-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff-c", "yk-y11-lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds-c", "yk-y11-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y12-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c", "yk-y12-arbital-programmer-deception-c", "yk-y12-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y12-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c", "yk-y13-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-b", "yk-y13-sl4-2002-07-02-yudkowsky-0207-4667-b", "yk-y13-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y13-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c", "yk-y13-lw-2021-biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-c", "yk-y14-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4277-c", "yk-y14-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c", "yk-y14-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b", "yk-y14-sl4-2002-09-10-yudkowsky-0209-5398-c", "yk-y14-sl4-2005-07-25-yudkowsky-0507-11765-b", "yk-y14-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y14-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c", "yk-y15-extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411-c", "yk-y15-extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310-c", "yk-y15-sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594-c", "yk-y15-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c", "yk-y15-lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness-c", "yk-y15-lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai-c", "yk-y15-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c", "yk-y16-extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761-c", "yk-y16-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c", "yk-y16-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-c", "yk-y16-sl4-2002-06-27-yudkowsky-0206-4453-c", "yk-y16-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c", "yk-y16-lw-2009-value-is-fragile-c", "yk-y16-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y17-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c", "yk-y17-extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086-c", "yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-06-yudkowsky-0104-0956-c", "yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019-c", "yk-y17-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c", "yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-b", "yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-b", "yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-c", "yk-y18-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-b", "yk-y18-extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783-c", "yk-y18-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c", "yk-y18-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c", "yk-y18-sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271-c", "yk-y18-lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences-c", "yk-y19-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-b", "yk-y19-extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2171-c", "yk-y19-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c", "yk-y19-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c", "yk-y19-sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11483-c", "yk-y19-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y19-iem-2013-c", "yk-y19-arbital-instrumental-convergence-c", "yk-y19-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y20-staring-into-the-singularity-b", "yk-y20-extropians-1997-09-25-yudkowsky-4400-b", "yk-y20-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591-c", "yk-y20-sl4-2001-04-19-yudkowsky-0104-1166-c", "yk-y20-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c", "yk-y20-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-b", "yk-y20-lw-2007-the-logical-fallacy-of-generalization-from-c", "yk-y21-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589-c", "yk-y21-sl4-2002-03-09-yudkowsky-0203-3148-c", "yk-y21-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4219-c", "yk-y21-lw-2018-challenges-to-christianos-capability-amplification-proposal-c", "yk-y21-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y21-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c", "yk-y21-lw-2025-re-recent-anthropic-safety-research-c", "yk-y22-staring-into-the-singularity-a", "yk-y22-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a", "yk-y22-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c", "yk-y22-sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031-c", "yk-y22-lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the-b", "yk-y22-lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly-c", "yk-y22-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y24-extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080-a", "yk-y24-sl4-2001-02-26-yudkowsky-0102-0603-b", "yk-y24-sl4-2002-03-10-yudkowsky-0203-3160-b", "yk-y24-sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551-a", "yk-y24-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-b", "yk-y24-sl4-2007-11-24-yudkowsky-0711-17248-c", "yk-y24-lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-c", "yk-y24-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y25-sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023-a", "yk-y25-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b", "yk-y25-sl4-2003-05-22-yudkowsky-0305-6783-c", "yk-y25-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y26-extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142-c", "yk-y26-extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420-b", "yk-y26-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292-c", "yk-y26-sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086-c", "yk-y26-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y26-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y26-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y27-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c", "yk-y27-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b", "yk-y27-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y27-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c", "yk-y27-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c", "yk-y28-extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073-b", "yk-y28-creating-friendly-ai-2001-a", "yk-y28-sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031-c", "yk-y28-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y28-sl4-2006-02-15-yudkowsky-0602-14096-c", "yk-y28-lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists-b", "yk-y28-lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in-c", "yk-y28-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y29-extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105-c", "yk-y29-sl4-2001-02-04-yudkowsky-0102-0539-c", "yk-y29-sl4-2001-02-05-yudkowsky-0102-0542-c", "yk-y29-sl4-2004-05-30-yudkowsky-0405-8843-c", "yk-y29-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y29-agi-ruin-2022-c", "yk-y29-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c", "yk-y30-staring-into-the-singularity-b", "yk-y30-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a", "yk-y30-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c", "yk-y30-sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545-c", "yk-y30-sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905-c", "yk-y30-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c", "yk-y30-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-b", "yk-y30-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c", "yk-y30-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c" ], "definition": { "axis": { "from": 1994, "ticks": [ "1996", "2000", "2005", "2010", "2015", "2020", "2026" ], "to": 2028 }, "corrections": [], "earliestEmpty": "None of his located texts states it.", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "groups": [ { "description": "Claims often made about advanced AI, phrased generically for this collection. The codes follow the numbers of the research pack the records come from, which has no Y23.", "id": "Y", "label": "Common claims about advanced AI", "propositionIds": [ "switch-off-if-dangerous", "intelligence-brings-benevolence", "understanding-implies-compliance", "short-instruction-suffices", "feedback-instils-values", "confinement-keeps-it-safe", "ai-solves-alignment", "warning-signs-in-time", "next-word-prediction-is-shallow", "diminishing-returns-to-intelligence", "slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust", "evaluations-catch-danger", "agi-decades-away", "fix-problems-as-they-arise", "tool-without-goals", "give-it-human-values", "pause-or-regulation-suffices", "earth-not-worth-taking", "harm-requires-hostility", "risk-is-film-fiction", "human-data-humanlike-mind", "build-superintelligence-fast", "build-it-before-rivals", "interpretability-reads-its-mind", "no-body-no-danger", "experiment-and-see", "developers-know-what-they-are-doing", "many-ais-balance", "default-outcome-good" ] } ], "id": "yudkowsky-arguments", "introduction": "Each claim is recorded as a proposition with one criterion. It is phrased generically and attributed to no one. A text of his that meets the criterion articulates the proposition. A text that disputes it, or a premise it depends on, contests it, and the record says whether the passage gives a reason against a premise or states the contrary only. A text that comes close bears on it, and its record names what is missing. Texts are listed in date order. The page records what he wrote and when. It does not assess whether he was right.", "landing": "{propositions} claims often made about advanced AI, each recorded as a proposition with one criterion, and {records} records from {texts} texts by Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996–2026, that state, contest or bear on them. Each claim names his earliest located text that contests it, and his earlier views appear with his later texts that contest them. The page can be downloaded as a research starter, with the original sources first.", "landingAction": "Read his arguments, claim by claim →", "limits": [ "“Earliest located” means the earliest of his texts that the searches described under “How we searched” found. It is not a claim of first use.", "A record documents what a text says, in its register. It is not evidence that the proposition is true or false, and no record links one text to another.", "The propositions were phrased for this collection and are attributed to no one. Their criteria and premises have had no human review, and changing them would change the records.", "An earlier text of his that states a proposition is shown with his later texts that contest it. The pairing is computed from the records. Some later texts do not refer back to the earlier one, and their qualifications say so.", "A passage that would mislead on its own is marked “shown only with its context” and is never shown without that context.", "Codes such as T13-a in qualifications refer to the passages of the research pack the records come from; T01 corresponds to Y01.", "A machine selected and classified these records, and machine checks re-examined them. No person has reviewed them." ], "mostDevelopedEmpty": null, "openPremises": { "build-it-before-rivals": [ "T24-P1 is addressed only through \"no true owner\" (2023) and the 2008 first-mover definition; no located passage argues the control point at length." ], "pause-or-regulation-suffices": [ "No located passage discusses whether a fixed but longer pause, short of an indefinite halt, would suffice." ] }, "question": "Which located texts by Eliezer Yudkowsky, from 1996 to 2026, state, contest or bear on 29 claims often made about advanced AI? For each claim, which of his located texts is the earliest to contest it, and which earlier views of his did later texts of his contest?", "searchNote": { "corrections": "A text of his found later that is earlier than an earliest located text becomes the new earliest located text, and the earlier headline stays on record as a correction.", "gaps": [ "Not searched: comments on LessWrong and the Alignment Forum, social media, podcasts and interviews, his books, including If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (2025, with Nate Soares), and his fiction, except posts cited as parables.", "Extropians list messages before 1996-07-25 are not in the archive used, and its folder for the second quarter of 2002 returned HTTP 404.", "His early pages on sysopmind.com and yudkowsky.net were read only in the copies named above. Other Singularity Institute and MIRI papers and most of Arbital were not searched.", "The mailing-list archives serve pages with later rewriting of addresses, so they do not authenticate the historical bytes of a message.", "Coherent Extrapolated Volition, one table of Creating Friendly AI and the AI-box page are known only from later copies, which were not compared with copies of their original years.", "Arbital pages could be edited after creation; their dates are those the viewer shows.", "No search was made for other writers who made the same arguments, so the page says nothing about who made a point earlier or later than he did." ], "methods": [ "Sources were retrieved directly by script on 2026-10-06 and 2026-10-07, one request at a time. Each retrieved text is identified by its SHA-256 hash in the source record.", "Machine searches read the retrieved texts proposition by proposition, with regular expressions for each premise. Lines quoting other writers were removed from messages first. Each proposition’s search record, with the expressions used and the passages seen but not used, is kept with the research pack in the Selekoa repository (research/yudkowsky-arguments).", "Every quotation was compared with the retrieved text. Quotations from LessWrong posts edited after posting were also compared with the version stored on the day of posting.", "A passage engages a premise when its paragraph, message or dialogue turn gives a reason against that premise. A passage that states the contrary conclusion without such a reason is recorded as stating the contrary. This message-level rule is a maintainer decision of 2026-10-08.", "Wording known only from MIRI’s later reprints was compared on 2026-10-08 with the 2001 web edition of Creating Friendly AI and the 2006 draft of the Global Catastrophic Risks chapter. Where the same wording was found, the record is dated by that copy. Otherwise it says that its wording is known only from a later copy, and it cannot be the earliest located text.", "Fresh-context machine audits by Claude Opus 5.5 models re-read every passage. A check by an OpenAI GPT-6 model re-examined 94 sampled passages and 13 comparison passages, and a correction pass settled each of its findings. No person has reviewed the records.", "Quotations are at most 50 words. Nine were shortened or replaced by paraphrases because the dataset already quotes the same sources, and together the quotations would exceed the limit per document." ], "scope": "The collection records passages from Yudkowsky’s own writing only. “Earliest located” means the earliest of his texts that the searches below found. It does not mean that he made the point before anyone else, and an earlier text of his may exist outside these searches.", "venues": [ { "items": [ "The Extropians mailing list: all 3,012 messages listed under his name in the author indexes of the archive at extropians.weidai.com, from 1996-11 to 2003-09 and 2008-09, read in full.", "The SL4 mailing list: all 1,876 messages listed under his name in the author indexes of the 142 monthly folders of the archive at sl4.org, from 2000 to 2009, read in full." ], "period": "Mailing lists, 1996 to 2009" }, { "items": [ "LessWrong: every post listed under his account on 2026-10-06, 1,076 posts, including his Overcoming Bias posts of 2006–2009 imported to LessWrong, book reposts of 2015 and co-authored dialogues.", "Five MIRI publications, read in MIRI’s PDFs: Creating Friendly AI (2001), Coherent Extrapolated Volition (2004), his chapter in Global Catastrophic Risks (2008), Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics (2013) and Corrigibility (2015, with three co-authors).", "His TIME article of 29 March 2023, the AI-box experiment page on yudkowsky.net, Staring into the Singularity as captured on 2000-12-04, and four Arbital pages read through a third-party viewer." ], "period": "Posts, papers and pages, 1996 to 2026" } ] }, "title": "Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026", "version": 1 } }, { "id": "question/anthropic-formation", "kind": "question", "version": 3, "title": "Founding and early leadership", "question": "What can the documentary record establish about Anthropic's formation and its preceding personnel and intellectual networks?", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "claimIds": [ "dario-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "daniela-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "chris-olah-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "jack-clark-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "tom-brown-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "jared-kaplan-anthropic-cofounder", "sam-mccandlish-anthropic-cofounder", "dario-anthropic-2021", "daniela-anthropic-2021", "dario-openai-vp-2020", "dario-openai-departure-announced-2020", "daniela-openai-safety-prior", "olah-brain-team-2017", "olah-openai-interpretability-prior", "lineage-dario-amodei-preferences", "lineage-preferences-cites-trpo", "lineage-summaries-cites-preferences", "lineage-mccandlish-authored-batch", "lineage-kaplan-authored-scaling", "lineage-scaling-uses-batch" ], "definition": { "branchNote": "Choose a separate branch. These are reading categories, not stages in the company’s formation.", "editorialStatus": "machine-proposed", "id": "anthropic-formation", "institutionId": "anthropic", "introduction": [ { "claimIds": [ "dario-anthropic-2021", "daniela-anthropic-2021", "dario-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "daniela-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "chris-olah-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "jack-clark-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "tom-brown-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "jared-kaplan-anthropic-cofounder", "sam-mccandlish-anthropic-cofounder", "dario-openai-vp-2020", "olah-brain-team-2017", "lineage-dario-amodei-preferences", "lineage-kaplan-authored-scaling", "lineage-mccandlish-authored-batch" ], "id": "formation-introduction", "text": "Anthropic’s formation comes into view through two kinds of testimony: an early announcement naming its leadership, and later accounts crediting its founders. Reading these together distinguishes participation in founding from executive office. The surrounding history reaches into earlier research institutions and publications; those connections help locate the people and their work, but leave open how the company took shape and why its founders chose to form it." } ], "items": [ { "claimId": "dario-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "A direct founding attribution, distinct from the CEO snapshot.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "daniela-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "A direct founding attribution, distinct from the president snapshot.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "chris-olah-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "A further founding credit whose retrospective documentation must remain visible.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "jack-clark-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "Includes an existing founding attribution previously omitted from the guided selection; the 2024 documentation remains visible.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "tom-brown-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "Includes an existing founding attribution previously omitted from the guided selection; the 2024 documentation remains visible.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "jared-kaplan-anthropic-cofounder", "rationale": "Places Kaplan’s retrospective co-founder attribution alongside the dated founding records; no event date is supplied.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "sam-mccandlish-anthropic-cofounder", "rationale": "Places McCandlish’s retrospective co-founder attribution alongside the dated founding records; no event date is supplied.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "dario-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "A dated early leadership snapshot alongside the separately documented founding credit.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "daniela-anthropic-2021", "rationale": "A dated early leadership snapshot alongside the separately documented founding credit.", "sectionId": "formation" }, { "claimId": "dario-openai-vp-2020", "rationale": "Documents the prior institution’s role description separately from the departure announcement.", "sectionId": "personnel" }, { "claimId": "dario-openai-departure-announced-2020", "rationale": "Retains the departure announcement within its actual scope.", "sectionId": "personnel", "warning": "The unnamed new project in this announcement is not identified as Anthropic. This record cannot explain the company’s formation." }, { "claimId": "daniela-openai-safety-prior", "rationale": "Retains the source-attributed prior title and its missing dates.", "sectionId": "personnel", "warning": "The fuller-title question remains unresolved in the existing review history. This record retains the slide’s “VP of Safety” wording." }, { "claimId": "olah-brain-team-2017", "rationale": "Provides a dated institutional snapshot for Olah, distinct from his undated OpenAI record.", "sectionId": "personnel" }, { "claimId": "olah-openai-interpretability-prior", "rationale": "Adds a retrospective description of prior responsibility without constructing a transfer timeline.", "sectionId": "personnel" }, { "claimId": "lineage-dario-amodei-preferences", "rationale": "Documents authorship by Dario Amodei, whose founding credit is in the principal reading.", "sectionId": "feedback" }, { "claimId": "lineage-preferences-cites-trpo", "rationale": "Provides an explicit reference in the selected human-feedback paper.", "sectionId": "feedback" }, { "claimId": "lineage-summaries-cites-preferences", "rationale": "Documents reception of that paper in a separate publication.", "sectionId": "feedback" }, { "claimId": "lineage-mccandlish-authored-batch", "rationale": "Identifies a co-author of the large-batch paper.", "sectionId": "scaling" }, { "claimId": "lineage-kaplan-authored-scaling", "rationale": "Identifies a co-author of the scaling paper.", "sectionId": "scaling" }, { "claimId": "lineage-scaling-uses-batch", "rationale": "Distinguishes reported method use in a named study from citation alone.", "sectionId": "scaling" } ], "question": "What can the documentary record establish about Anthropic's formation and its preceding personnel and intellectual networks?", "sections": [ { "description": "Seven founding attributions and two early leadership snapshots.", "gap": "These seven attributions do not establish an exhaustive historical roster, simultaneous participation or a legal incorporation date.", "groups": [ { "predicates": [ "co_founded" ], "title": "Founding participation" }, { "title": "Early leadership" } ], "id": "formation", "kind": "principal", "passages": [ { "claimIds": [ "dario-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "daniela-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "chris-olah-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "jack-clark-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "tom-brown-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "jared-kaplan-anthropic-cofounder", "sam-mccandlish-anthropic-cofounder" ], "id": "founding-testimony", "text": "The founding accounts were written after the events they describe. Anthropic’s 2022 Series B announcement credits Dario and Daniela Amodei; a 2024 founder slide credits Chris Olah, Jack Clark and Tom Brown alongside its 2021 founding panel. These five records retain only year-level dates. The October 2024 Responsible Scaling Policy announcement also identifies Jared Kaplan and Sam McCandlish as co-founders, without dating their founding participation." }, { "claimIds": [ "dario-anthropic-2021", "daniela-anthropic-2021", "dario-cofounded-anthropic-2021", "daniela-cofounded-anthropic-2021" ], "id": "early-leadership", "text": "The May 2021 Series A announcement offers a different view: Dario Amodei as CEO and Daniela Amodei as president. It documents leadership at that moment, while the later founding accounts credit participation in creating the institution. These snapshots establish neither appointment dates nor the other founders’ responsibilities." } ], "title": "Founding & early leadership" }, { "description": "Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei and Chris Olah.", "gap": "The departure announcement’s new project remains unnamed here; Daniela’s fuller prior title and the employment boundaries remain open questions.", "id": "personnel", "kind": "context", "passages": [ { "claimIds": [ "dario-openai-vp-2020", "dario-openai-departure-announced-2020", "daniela-openai-safety-prior", "olah-openai-interpretability-prior", "olah-brain-team-2017" ], "id": "personnel-context", "text": "The personnel accounts place research and safety responsibilities in earlier institutional settings. OpenAI named Dario Amodei as VP of Research when announcing his departure in December 2020. Daniela’s prior safety role appears in a later founder slide, while Olah’s biography recalls leading interpretability research at OpenAI; a separate 2017 Google account places him on the Brain team. This is a history of documented roles with uneven dates, not a shared departure chronology or an explanation of Anthropic’s formation." } ], "title": "Prior institutional roles" }, { "description": "Authorship and two explicit citations.", "gap": "Authorship and citation leave institutional adoption and the founders’ motives unestablished.", "id": "feedback", "kind": "context", "passages": [ { "claimIds": [ "lineage-dario-amodei-preferences", "lineage-preferences-cites-trpo", "lineage-summaries-cites-preferences", "dario-cofounded-anthropic-2021" ], "id": "feedback-context", "text": "The publication trail places Dario Amodei among the co-authors of Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences in 2017. That paper cites TRPO in its policy-optimisation procedure and is itself cited in Learning to summarize from human feedback in 2020. The interest of this branch lies in the connections the documents actually name: a research contribution and references across works. It provides an intellectual setting for one founder’s work without turning that setting into Anthropic’s research programme." } ], "title": "Human-feedback publications" }, { "description": "Earlier papers by Kaplan and McCandlish; reported method use.", "gap": "The reported method use concerns the named study. Its adoption at Anthropic, and its part in the decision to found the company, remain unestablished.", "id": "scaling", "kind": "context", "passages": [ { "claimIds": [ "jared-kaplan-anthropic-cofounder", "sam-mccandlish-anthropic-cofounder", "lineage-mccandlish-authored-batch", "lineage-kaplan-authored-scaling", "lineage-scaling-uses-batch" ], "id": "scaling-context", "text": "Kaplan and McCandlish’s later co-founder attributions make their earlier publications relevant to this history. McCandlish is credited on An Empirical Model of Large-Batch Training (2018), and Kaplan on Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models (2020). Scaling Laws reports using the large-batch model to adjust training-step and compute estimates. This supplies a more specific documentary connection than citation alone: the authors describe a use within their study. Whether that work entered the new company remains open." } ], "title": "Scaling publications" } ], "title": "Founding and early leadership", "version": 3 } } ]