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A documentary history of machine intelligence.

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Document · Working paper

The Simple Macroeconomics of AI

The Simple Macroeconomics of AI, by Daron Acemoglu. Paper prepared for Economic Policy; author-hosted PDF (MIT Economics)

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Authors credited
No authorship claim recorded yet. The source records list Daron Acemoglu.
Dates
  • No date claim recorded yet. The source records give the publication date as 2024-04-05 and 2024-05.
Exact source
  • The Simple Macroeconomics of AI Paper prepared for Economic Policy · published 2024-04-05 · Wayback capture of the MIT-hosted PDF (economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/...). Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 ebe1e79ace306b02cf64753d09fb684c1311dd3391132a901ab944d10872c514). Versions: MIT-hosted paper (2024-04-05): checked; NBER Working Paper 32487 (2024-05): not compared; Economic Policy 40(121) (online 2024-08-06; issue 2025): not compared. Published version: Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042 Published online 2024-08-06 (Crossref). Working paper: NBER Working Paper No. 32487 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w32487. The checked text is the MIT-hosted version dated 2024-04-05; journal wording not compared.Archived copy, captured 2025-01-06. Captured 276 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-06. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.
  • The Simple Macroeconomics of AI NBER Working Paper 32487 · published 2024-05 · Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0. Journal version not retrieved. Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042

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Documentary relations

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Articulates · 4

Propositions whose criterion a passage of this document meets. The record says what the text states, in its register; it is not evidence that the proposition is true.

  • AI’s near-term aggregate productivity effect is modest: propositions page →
  • AI’s productivity effect over the next decade: propositions page →
  • AI as the automation of tasks: propositions page →
  • Automation lowers the labour share, wages or employment: propositions page →

Bears on · 7

Propositions a passage comes close to without meeting the criterion; each record names what is missing.

  • Estimates of explosive growth within a stated horizon: propositions page →
  • Machine intelligence improving itself accelerates its capability growth: propositions page →
  • Machine intelligence exceeding human cognition in essentially all domains: propositions page →
  • Economics’ engagement with superintelligence, AGI and the singularity: propositions page →
  • Machines cheaper than labour at every task: propositions page →
  • Compensating policy for AI’s distributional effects: propositions page →
  • Exposure to automation measured from task content: propositions page →

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