Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
An essay by Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, dated 2024. Year of the series; the chapter pages carry article:published_time 2024-05-29 in their metadata, which may precede public release. No dated statement was found on the pages read.
- Issued by
- No issuing record yet. A missing record is a gap in coverage.
- Authors credited
- No authorship claim recorded yet. The source records list Leopold Aschenbrenner.
- Dates
- No date claim recorded yet. The source records give the publication date as 2024.
- Exact source
- II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (situational-awareness.ai) · published 2024 · Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 6c8847073fb074ed40ab3ad4289a50d0f200bd9daeff29afeeed625c507d336b). Current chapter page, retrieved 2026-10-29. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages.
- I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (situational-awareness.ai) · published 2024 · Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 9129049ea8fdc7c74585fad35e9c0b3a575affbf6651d066795b02f1500e3427). Current chapter page, retrieved 2026-10-29.
Appears in
- Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022 →1 record on this document
- Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI →2 records on this document
Versions
No other versions of this document are recorded. The evidence applies to the source version listed above. Other versions, such as a preprint, working paper or journal publication, are not identified or substituted.
Documentary relations
Each relation is listed separately. Citing, crediting and reporting the use of a method are different acts, and none of them shows agreement or influence by itself.
Cited by · 1
Recorded documents that explicitly reference this one. A citation to a work does not identify which version was read.
Contests · 1
Propositions a passage of this document disputes, or a premise they depend on.
- Capabilities will plateauAschenbrenner's essay of 2024 argues against the view that deep learning is hitting a wall, holding that trends in compute, algorithmic efficiency and 'unhobbling' make AGI by 2027 'strikingly plausible', and treats the data wall as a source of variance rather than a limit.2024 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗Capabilities will plateau: propositions page →
Bears on · 1
Propositions a passage comes close to without meeting the criterion; each record names what is missing.
- Fast or hard takeoffAschenbrenner's essay of 2024 states that hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research and compress a decade of algorithmic progress into a year or less, so that AI would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman, and names this an intelligence explosion.2024 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗Fast or hard takeoff: propositions page →
Not recorded for this document: cites · explicitly credits · reports using a method from · method reported as used by · applies parts of · parts applied by · discusses · reports evaluation of. A missing record does not show that the relation does not exist.