The Scaling Hypothesis
An essay by Gwern Branwen, Author's site, dated 28 May 2020. First of the two dates the page gives ("2020-05-28–2022-01-02").
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- The Scaling Hypothesis Author's site (gwern.net) · published 2020-05-28 · Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 381df0d8ea0603a67f9366a2f86c8d81917abb116c538e906c5948c251e15af0). Current page, which gives its dates as "2020-05-28–2022-01-02"; retrieved 2026-10-29; earlier states of the page were not compared. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes.
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- Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI →1 record on this document
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Propositions a passage of this document disputes, or a premise they depend on.
- Capabilities will plateauGwern's essay of 2020 states the scaling hypothesis, on which intelligence is simple neural units and learning algorithms applied to diverse experience at a currently unreachable scale, so that neural networks will become ever more intelligent as computational resources grow.2020-05-28 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗Capabilities will plateau: propositions page →
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