AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy
An essay by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, AI Snake Oil newsletter, dated 26 July 2024. datePublished metadata of the post.
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- AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy AI Snake Oil newsletter (Substack) · published 2024-07-26 · Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 f2ab524f7ef4880a2f9253067d3d841b9de7e8c3103f0c04226567dc178b006e). Current Substack post, datePublished 2024-07-26; the newsletter has since been renamed, and the address may redirect.
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- Risk claims are speculative or unfalsifiableThe essay by Narayanan and Kapoor of 26 July 2024 argues that probability estimates of AI-caused extinction are far too unreliable to be useful for policy, since there is no reference class for the event, and states that the authors have no objection to AI x-risk forecasting as an academic activity.2024-07-26 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗Risk claims are speculative or unfalsifiable: propositions page →
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