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Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth, by William D. Nordhaus. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University.

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No authorship claim recorded yet. The source records list William D. Nordhaus.
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  • No date claim recorded yet. The source records give the publication date as 2015-09.
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  • Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University · published 2015-09 · Wayback capture of the Cowles Foundation PDF (cowles.yale.edu/.../d2021.pdf); compared with a capture of NBER Working Paper 21547. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 d9348fe608486784675d6f95dfb78367801c0ca33217b500a0d31bee1dea5f97). Versions: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021 (2015-09): checked; NBER Working Paper 21547 (2015-09): compared; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(1) (2021-01): not compared. Published version: Nordhaus, W. D. (2021). Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105 Working paper: Nordhaus, W. D. (2015). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021; NBER Working Paper No. 21547. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21547Archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2016-08-09. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.
  • Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth NBER Working Paper 21547 · published 2015-09 · Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 cb481e5e99ef9bad8575d9150bcc8464eda4904722cc5048389ab6159858b062. Journal version not retrieved. Nordhaus, W. D. (2021). Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105

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Articulates · 9

Propositions whose criterion a passage of this document meets. The record says what the text states, in its register; it is not evidence that the proposition is true.

  • Machine intelligence improving itself accelerates its capability growth: propositions page →
  • Machine intelligence exceeding human cognition in essentially all domains: propositions page →
  • Existential risk from AI as a matter for economic analysis: propositions page →
  • Economics’ engagement with superintelligence, AGI and the singularity: propositions page →
  • Machine substitution for labour produces explosive growth: propositions page →
  • Essential unautomated tasks bottleneck growth: propositions page →
  • Machine substitution drives wages down: propositions page →
  • Estimates of explosive growth within a stated horizon: propositions page →
  • Automation lowers the labour share, wages or employment: propositions page →

Contests · 1

Propositions a passage of this document disputes, or a premise they depend on.

  • Other constraints prevent explosive growth: propositions page →

Bears on · 6

Propositions a passage comes close to without meeting the criterion; each record names what is missing.

  • Machine intelligence improving itself accelerates its capability growth: propositions page →
  • AI developers’ incentives matter for safety: propositions page →
  • Current data show no approach to explosive growth: propositions page →
  • Computers and AI as ordinary technical change: propositions page →
  • Machines cheaper than labour at every task: propositions page →
  • Recent entry of machine intelligence into mainstream economics: propositions page →

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