{"entities":[{"id":"anthropic","name":"Anthropic"},{"id":"aws","name":"Amazon Web Services"},{"id":"nvidia","name":"NVIDIA"},{"id":"fsf-2024","name":"Frontier Safety Framework (2024)"},{"id":"intelligence-explosion","name":"Intelligence explosion"},{"id":"jack-clark","name":"Jack Clark"},{"id":"fsf-v3-1","name":"Google DeepMind Frontier Safety Framework — v3.1"},{"id":"faif-2026","name":"xAI Frontier Artificial Intelligence Framework — June 2026 edition"},{"id":"chalmers-singularity","name":"The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis"},{"id":"samsung-electronics","name":"Samsung Electronics"},{"id":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09","name":"Voluntary AI Commitments (September 2023)"},{"id":"frontier-ai-safety-commitments-2024","name":"Frontier AI Safety Commitments, AI Seoul Summit 2024"},{"id":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","name":"Usefulness of the Turing Test"},{"id":"intelligence-brings-benevolence","name":"Sufficient intelligence brings good values"},{"id":"warning-signs-in-time","name":"Clear warning signs will come before danger"},{"id":"pause-or-regulation-suffices","name":"A pause or regulation will handle it"},{"id":"human-data-humanlike-mind","name":"Trained on human data, so humanlike"},{"id":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","name":"Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down"},{"id":"lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments","name":"No Universally Compelling Arguments"},{"id":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","name":"MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy"},{"id":"sl4-2002-03-09-yudkowsky-0203-3148","name":"Re: Novamente goal system"},{"id":"explosive-growth-estimates","name":"Estimates of explosive growth within a stated horizon"},{"id":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change","name":"Computers and AI as ordinary technical change"},{"id":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task","name":"Machines cheaper than labour at every task"},{"id":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade","name":"AI’s productivity effect over the next decade"},{"id":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","name":"Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth"},{"id":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","name":"Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth"},{"id":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","name":"Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?"},{"id":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","name":"The Simple Macroeconomics of AI"},{"id":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","name":"The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?"},{"id":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","name":"Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings"},{"id":"us-ai-safety-institute","name":"U.S. AI Safety Institute"},{"id":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability","name":"Machine intelligence improving itself accelerates its capability growth"},{"id":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand","name":"Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative Artificial Intelligence"},{"id":"inceptive","name":"Inceptive"},{"id":"jakob-uszkoreit","name":"Jakob Uszkoreit"},{"id":"luke-muehlhauser","name":"Luke Muehlhauser"},{"id":"mariano-florentino-cuellar","name":"Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar"},{"id":"yasmin-razavi","name":"Yasmin Razavi"},{"id":"carl-benedikt-frey","name":"Carl Benedikt Frey"},{"id":"avi-goldfarb","name":"Avi Goldfarb"},{"id":"christopher-mckinstry","name":"Christopher McKinstry"},{"id":"g7-hiroshima-code-of-conduct-2023","name":"Hiroshima Process International Code of Conduct for Organizations Developing Advanced AI Systems"},{"id":"us-uk-aisi-preeval-claude-35-sonnet-2024","name":"Pre-Deployment Evaluation of Anthropic’s Upgraded Claude 3.5 Sonnet (US AISI and UK AISI)"},{"id":"uk-ai-security-institute","name":"AI Security Institute (UK)"},{"id":"openai-chatgpt-agent-system-card-2025","name":"ChatGPT Agent System Card"},{"id":"bio-misuse-capability-evaluation","name":"Biological misuse capability evaluation"}],"claims":[{"id":"anthropic-cloud-2023","statement":"Anthropic announced AWS as its primary cloud provider for mission-critical workloads.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Primary does not mean exclusive. The announcement concerns future provision and identifies other existing solutions; no expenditure is stated.","evidenceIds":["evidence-anthropic-cloud-2023"],"attributes":{"transactionStage":"announced"}},{"id":"jack-clark-cofounded-anthropic-2021","statement":"Jack Clark is credited as an Anthropic co-founder in the company’s 2024 founder slide.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Institutional co-founder attribution, not a claim to an exhaustive founding roster or a present executive title.","evidenceIds":["evidence-jack-clark-cofounded-anthropic-2021"]},{"id":"lineage-chalmers-discusses-explosion","statement":"The Singularity discusses an intelligence explosion from successively more intelligent machine designers.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Concept discussion, not inevitability, a dated forecast accepted by Selekoa or term-priority attribution.","evidenceIds":["evidence-lineage-chalmers-discusses-explosion"]},{"id":"prov-fsf-2024-response-plan","statement":"FSF v1.0 states that when a model reaches evaluation thresholds (passes a set of early warning evaluations), Google DeepMind will formulate a response plan based on the analysis of the CCL and evaluation results.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"What the edition states, quoted from the cited expression. It is not evidence of implementation, compliance or effectiveness.","evidenceIds":["evidence-prov-fsf-2024-response-plan"],"attributes":{"provision":{"kind":"required_action","key":"fsf-response-plan"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-nvidia","statement":"The White House named Nvidia (NVIDIA) among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"The fact sheet links the September 2023 text, whose scope clause differs from the July text. Listing is the convener’s statement. It is not evidence that the organisation complied with, implemented or still maintains the commitments, and the legal effect of being listed is not recorded.","evidenceIds":["evidence-cm-wh-2023-09-nvidia-1"],"attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-seoul-samsung-electronics","statement":"Samsung Electronics is listed among the sixteen organisations that, according to the GOV.UK text of 21 May 2024, the UK and Republic of Korea governments announced had agreed to the Frontier AI Safety Commitments.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Listing is the convener’s statement. It is not evidence that the organisation complied with, implemented or still maintains the commitments, and the legal effect of being listed is not recorded.","evidenceIds":["evidence-cm-seoul-samsung-electronics-1"],"attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"yk-y02-lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments-c","statement":"The post “No Universally Compelling Arguments” (2008-06-26) contests Y02. After arguing that compulsion is a property of minds rather than of arguments, he names as a failure mode the hope that any AI will inevitably derive the right morality without it being programmed.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Premise addressed: A sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it. Imported Overcoming Bias post; date is the OB date (2008-06-26). The following paragraph lists 'Eliezer1996' among holders of a milder version of the view.","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c","statement":"The post “MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy” (2022-04-02) contests Y08. Describes a scenario in which interpretability work detects signs that a system may be planning deception, but no known remedy exists and management, under competitive pressure, does not shut the project down.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Premise addressed: Once a warning sign is seen, it will lead to effective action. Posted 1 April 2022 (US time; LessWrong timestamp 2022-04-02 UTC). The question labelled Q6 in the post addresses the April Fool's framing and does not settle it as a joke; read as a serious statement with that caveat.","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that once a warning sign is seen, it will lead to effective action."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y17. Responding to an open letter calling for a six-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4, he argues that the letter asks for too little.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Premise addressed: A short pause (for example six months) is enough. The same article says the six-month moratorium \"would be better than no moratorium\" and that he respects its signatories; the disagreement is about sufficiency.","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short pause (for example six months) is enough."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-sl4-2002-03-09-yudkowsky-0203-3148-c","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Novamente goal system” (2002-03-09) contests Y21. Replying to Ben Goertzel on the Novamente goal system, he lists as an anthropomorphic intuition the expectation that Novamente will be 'socialized' by interacting with humans, and argues that human socialization depends on evolved adaptations an AI would lack.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Premise addressed: Training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives. The premise addressed is learning from interaction with humans (2002-era AGI design), not training on large human text corpora. The paragraph's first sentence restates Goertzel's expectation and is excluded from the quotation.","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"ec-g09-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G09. Explosive growth is defined in the report as more than 30% annual growth of gross world product. Follows: \"On a different day my probability of explosive growth by 2100 might be as low as 15% or as high as 60%.\"","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"(Second passage) From the appendix on how the author decides his overall probability; it qualifies the abstract’s judgement.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-d","evidence-ec-g09-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined as >30% annual GWP growth; horizon 2100.","estimates":[{"holder":"Tom Davidson","value":"\"plausible but far from certain\"; >10% (Appendix G); \"as low as 15% or as high as 60%\" on different days","horizon":"by 2100 (from June 2021)","definition":"more than 30% annual growth of gross world product","conditional":false,"conditions":"Overall judgement across the report's models and objections."}]}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on M01. Nordhaus models AI-driven growth with a standard neoclassical growth model in which information capital receives capital-augmenting technical change; the outcome turns on the elasticity of substitution.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"NBER Working Paper 21547, September 2015 (version dated September 1, 2015); not pre-2015. Shows standard technical-change tools applied to AI in 2015.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Dated September 2015, after the working boundary; the paper also discusses superintelligence as a distinct prospect drawn from computer science.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Constant savings rate, closed economy, capital-augmenting technical change, CES production."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-c","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) contests M05. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Concludes his assessment of the employment criterion before turning to stability.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"His premise is that automation's scope is limited (agriculture, mining, professions and most construction and retailing largely excluded, p. 33). This rejects long-run mass unemployment; it does not discuss machines performing all tasks. Checked against the raw djvu text (.html) only. Engagement: (GPT cross-family check of 2026-10-12, accepted by the maintainer on 2026-10-12.) He addresses the prospect of long-run mass unemployment from automation and rejects it: automation will be limited to industries employing about 25 per cent of the labour force, and it creates new jobs whose training delays young people's entry into work.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Buckingham gives limited automatable coverage and creation of new jobs as reasons against permanent mass unemployment."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"The next sentence qualifies it: there is 'no automatic regulator in the economic system that guarantees full employment', and the gains need continued expansion. He likens the economy to 'a rocket which must continue to accelerate or else fall from the sky'."}}},{"id":"ec-m08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) articulates M08. Acemoglu applies a Hulten's-theorem task framework to exposure and cost-saving estimates to bound AI's ten-year TFP effect, against much larger forecasts (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey). Allowing for hard-to-learn tasks where AI gains are smaller lowers the ten-year TFP bound. Acemoglu converts the TFP bounds to GDP effects under two investment-response assumptions. The author-hosted version of 5 April 2024 gives no more than 0.71% over ten years, and less than 0.55% allowing for hard tasks; the NBER version of May 2024 gives 0.66% and 0.53%.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"(First passage) Author-hosted version of 5 April 2024, abstract: an upper bound on total TFP over ten years. The same passage is quoted under G08 and counted once towards the quotation limit. M08 is dated by this version (2026-10-25), as G08 is. (Second passage) The same abstract’s figure after allowing for hard-to-learn tasks. (Third passage) NBER version of May 2024. Material quantitative claim: an upper bound on total (not annual) US TFP gain over 10 years from May 2024; illustrative back-of-the-envelope calculation resting on Eloundou et al. (2023) exposure, Svanberg et al. (2024) feasibility and experimental cost-saving estimates. Needs targeted recheck. This is total-factor productivity, not GDP, over ten years in total; the paper also reports an alternative of about 0.89%. The later journal version was not compared. (Fourth passage) Material quantitative claim: upper bound on total 10-year TFP gain, using 'speculative' assumptions (at most 73% easy tasks; hard-task gains about one quarter of easy). Needs targeted recheck. The figure is total TFP over ten years. (Fifth passage) Material quantitative claim: 10-year total GDP effects conditional on investment response; Acemoglu notes extra investment-driven GDP does not add to welfare. The introduction gives a lower hard-task GDP bound of 0.90%. Needs targeted recheck.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m08-apr-a","evidence-ec-m08-apr-b","evidence-ec-m08-04","evidence-ec-m08-05","evidence-ec-m08-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the author-hosted PDF; the current copy retrieved on 2026-10-25 is byte-identical to it. The May 2024 passages are known from a current copy of the NBER version."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(April version) Task-level cost savings from existing exposure and productivity estimates; the second figure adds the author’s easy/hard-task assumptions. (M08-04) Gains from cost savings at task level via automation and task complementarity only; excludes new tasks, deepening of automation and science-transforming effects; US economy. (M08-05) As above, plus easy/hard task classification assumptions. (M08-06) Modest investment response (capital rising in proportion to TFP) versus an investment boom like earlier automation."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates E01. The authors model \"a unit of A.I. working to improve itself\" by a differential equation for cognitive productivity. The authors cite Good (1965), Vinge (1993) and Kurzweil (2005) and point to Nordhaus (2015) for an economic discussion.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"(First passage) A model scenario, explicitly \"in the telling of many futurists\"; not the authors' forecast. Sec. 4.2 lists objections (bottlenecks, search limits). (Second passage) The passage reports a view the author does not state as their own. Reported view of \"some observers\"; the authors set it up for analysis.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-16","evidence-ec-e01-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Self-improvement law dA/dt = A^(1+ω) for cognitive productivity, with ω > 0."}}},{"id":"lg-ant-razavi-board-2023","statement":"Anthropic announced on 23 May 2023, in its Series C announcement, that Yasmin Razavi, a General Partner at Spark Capital, had joined its board of directors.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"A documented board role at the date of the announcement. Later Anthropic lists of directors (29 May 2024, 13 February 2026, and the Company page retrieved on 2026-10-15) still name her; no continuous tenure is established beyond those documents. The terms under which she was elected are not stated.","evidenceIds":["lg-ev-ant-razavi-board-2023-1","lg-ev-ant-razavi-board-2023-2","lg-ev-ant-razavi-board-2023-3"],"attributes":{"role":"Member of the board of directors"}},{"id":"lg-ant-muehlhauser-board-departure-2024","statement":"Anthropic announced on 29 May 2024 that Luke Muehlhauser had decided to step down from its board of directors; Anthropic stated that he would focus on his work at Open Philanthropy.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"The announcement does not say when he joined the board or how he was elected; neither is recorded. The stated reason is Anthropic's wording in its own announcement.","evidenceIds":["lg-ev-ant-muehlhauser-board-departure-2024"],"attributes":{"role":"Member of the board of directors","statedReason":{"by":"anthropic","text":"Anthropic's announcement states that he stepped down to focus on his work at Open Philanthropy.","evidenceId":"lg-ev-ant-muehlhauser-board-departure-2024"}}},{"id":"lg-ant-cuellar-cgao-announced-2026","statement":"Anthropic announced on 4 August 2026 that Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar would join it as its first Chief Global Affairs Officer.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"An announced appointment (“will join”); the start date is not stated. The role as listed later is recorded separately.","evidenceIds":["lg-ev-ant-cuellar-cgao-announced-2026"],"attributes":{"activityStage":"announced","role":"Chief Global Affairs Officer"}},{"id":"lg-goo-uszkoreit-cofounded-inceptive","statement":"Inceptive's announcement of 3 June 2026 identifies Jakob Uszkoreit as a co-founder of Inceptive.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"A retrospective co-founder credit; it does not give the founding date or other co-founders.","evidenceIds":["lg-ev-goo-uszkoreit-cofounded-inceptive"],"attributes":{"role":"co-founder"}},{"id":"cmp-faif-2026-d3-safeguards","statement":"FAIF · June 2026 edition states a provision on the comparison question “Safeguards required”, in a weaker form than the question’s criterion.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Stated, partly: the passage has what the question’s criterion asks for, but in a weaker form than the criterion’s own words. Mitigations are not keyed to named thresholds; the closest threshold-linked provision is the risk-acceptance condition quoted under “Pause, non-deployment or non-training”. CBRN-specific heightened safeguards are triggered by prompts demonstrating intent (PDF p. 3). What the edition states, quoted from the cited expression. It is not evidence of implementation, compliance or effectiveness, and a shared question does not make two editions’ provisions equivalent.","evidenceIds":["ev-cmp-faif-2026-d3-safeguards-1","ev-cmp-faif-2026-d3-safeguards-2"],"attributes":{"provision":{"kind":"required_action","key":"comparison-d3-safeguards","facet":{"id":"D3.safeguards","status":"partly"}}}},{"id":"ap-carl-benedikt-frey-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","statement":"“The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) credits Carl Benedikt Frey as one of its 2 authors.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Credited co-authorship; it does not allocate parts of the text between authors or imply agreement with every passage.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ap-carl-benedikt-frey-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment"]},{"id":"ap-avi-goldfarb-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand","statement":"“Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative Artificial Intelligence” (2025-10) credits Avi Goldfarb as one of its 3 authors.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Credited co-authorship; it does not allocate parts of the text between authors or imply agreement with every passage.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ap-avi-goldfarb-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand"]},{"id":"ap-christopher-mckinstry-mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","statement":"The mailing-list message “Usefulness of the Turing Test” (1994-12-29) is sent under the name Christopher McKinstry.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"A sender name on a mailing-list message as archived; it does not establish identity beyond the credited name, and quoted text by others inside the message is not the sender’s.","evidenceIds":["evidence-ap-christopher-mckinstry-mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test"]},{"id":"cmp-fsf-v3-1-d1-cyber","statement":"FSF · v3.1 states a provision on the comparison question “Cyber operations”.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"One CCL: Cyber uplift level 1 (Table 2.2.2.a, PDF p. 12). What the edition states, paraphrased from the cited expression with its page. It is not evidence of implementation, compliance or effectiveness, and a shared question does not make two editions’ provisions equivalent.","evidenceIds":["ev-cmp-fsf-v3-1-d1-cyber-1"],"attributes":{"provision":{"kind":"risk_domain","key":"comparison-d1-cyber","facet":{"id":"D1.cyber","status":"stated"}}}},{"id":"fl-intl-g7-code-transparency-reports","statement":"Action 3 of the Hiroshima Process Code of Conduct calls for public reporting of advanced AI systems' capabilities, limitations and domains of appropriate and inappropriate use, including transparency reports for all new significant releases.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"A voluntary action; not a record that any developer published such reports.","evidenceIds":["evidence-fl-intl-g7-code-transparency-reports-1"],"attributes":{"provision":{"kind":"required_action","key":"intl-g7-code-transparency-reports"}}},{"id":"fl-us-aisi-agreement-anthropic-announced","statement":"On 29 August 2024 NIST announced that the U.S. AI Safety Institute had agreements (a Memorandum of Understanding with each company) enabling collaboration on AI safety research, testing and evaluation with Anthropic, including access to major new models before and after public release.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"Announced in a press release; the MoU text was not inspected. Not evidence of any evaluation or of the company’s compliance with anything.","evidenceIds":["evidence-fl-us-aisi-agreement-anthropic-announced-1","evidence-fl-us-aisi-agreement-anthropic-announced-2"],"attributes":{"activityStage":"announced","evaluatedSystem":"The company's major new models, before and after their public release (as announced)","activityScope":"Formal collaboration on AI safety research, testing and evaluation under a memorandum of understanding (its text not inspected)"}},{"id":"ab-ev-usaisi-claude35-bio-result","statement":"The joint pre-deployment evaluation summary for Anthropic's upgraded Claude 3.5 Sonnet states that US AISI evaluated the model on a set of multiple-choice biology research task questions and that its performance was comparable to the reference models and significantly below measured human expert baselines in most instances.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","qualification":"The result is the institutes' own, for the model version, question sets and reference models they name. The summary states that the biological findings are from US AISI's testing only, that UK AISI was not publishing in this domain at that time, and that smaller differences may fall within the margins of error. Nothing is generalised to other models or to real-world capability. 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Same passage as the one quoted under G08.","contextOnly":{"reason":"A total over ten years and an upper bound, which can be misread as an annual rate or a GDP figure.","requires":"TFP, not GDP; total over ten years; an upper bound from the task-based calculation."}},{"id":"evidence-ec-m08-apr-b","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"Abstract","passage":"Consequently, predicted TFP gains over the next 10 years are even more modest and are predicted to be less than 0.55%.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-25","note":"Checked on 2026-10-25 against the author-hosted PDF retrieved that day (SHA-256 ebe1e79ace306b02cf64753d09fb684c1311dd3391132a901ab944d10872c514, identical to the 2025-01-06 capture recorded with the source).","contextOnly":{"reason":"A total over ten years and an upper bound, which can be misread as an annual rate or a GDP figure.","requires":"TFP, not GDP; total over ten years; an upper bound from the task-based calculation."}},{"id":"evidence-ec-m08-04","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"pdf page 45; 4 Concluding Remarks and Discussion (printed p. 43)","passage":"I estimate that TFP effects from AI advances within the next 10 years will be modest—an upper bound that does not take into account the distinction between hard and easy tasks would be about a 0.66% increase in total within 10 years","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-14","note":"Candidate pack passage M08-04 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (42 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day.","contextOnly":{"reason":"Fresh-context audit (A3) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.","requires":"TFP, not GDP; an upper bound that ignores hard/easy tasks; 'in total within 10 years' (about 0.064% a year, sentence continues). Built on Eloundou et al. exposure, Svanberg et al. cost-effective share and experimental cost savings; the body (pdf ~p.38) gives 0.89% with Peng et al.'s higher productivity figure."}},{"id":"evidence-ec-m08-05","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"pdf page 45; 4 Concluding Remarks and Discussion (printed p. 43)","passage":"When the presence of hard tasks among those that will be exposed to AI is recognized, this upper bound drops to about 0.53%.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-14","note":"Candidate pack passage M08-05 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (23 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day.","contextOnly":{"reason":"Fresh-context audit (A3) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.","requires":"Must state: TFP, total over 10 years, upper bound after accounting for hard tasks."}},{"id":"evidence-ec-m08-06","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"pdf page 45; 4 Concluding Remarks and Discussion (printed p. 43)","passage":"the GDP boost within the next 10 years … in the range of 0.93% − 1.16% over 10 years in total, provided that the investment increase resulting from AI is modest, and in the range of 1.4% − 1.56% in total, if there is a large investment boom.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-14","note":"Candidate pack passage M08-06 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (48 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day.","contextOnly":{"reason":"Fresh-context audit (A3) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.","requires":"The ellipsis removes 'should also be modest'; the two ranges are conditional on modest vs large investment boom, total over 10 years, not annual."}},{"id":"evidence-ec-e01-16","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"NBER WP 23928, printed p. 26 (equation and surrounding paragraph)","passage":"If ω > 0, then the process of self-improvement explodes, resulting in an unbounded intelligence in finite time.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-16","note":"Candidate pack passage E01-16 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (18 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 a8e68273c738c80fe565afa60bc27ec5e8aaf3135011a0f760233896f1f2100c) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day.","contextOnly":{"reason":"A model scenario, not the author's own forecast (maintainer decision D3).","requires":"The model's conditions and the author's own assessment."}},{"id":"evidence-ec-e01-17","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"NBER WP 23928, sec. 1 \"Introduction\", p. 2","passage":"In extreme versions, some observers have argued that A.I. can become rapidly self-improving, leading to \"singularities\" that feature unbounded machine intelligence and/or unbounded economic growth in finite time","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-16","note":"Candidate pack passage E01-17 (research/economics-mainstream/esoteric). The quotation (28 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 a8e68273c738c80fe565afa60bc27ec5e8aaf3135011a0f760233896f1f2100c) in the pack's verification of 2026-10-15. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-16 against a copy retrieved that day."},{"id":"lg-ev-ant-razavi-board-2023-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"Fourth paragraph","passage":"Yasmin Razavi, a General Partner at Spark Capital focused on growth stage software investments, has joined Anthropic's Board of Directors","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Candidate pack passage, lab genealogy (research/lab-genealogy). The quotation (20 words) matched the retrieved text on 2026-10-15 and again in a fresh retrieval the same day. Read directly from the publisher. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, apostrophes, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"lg-ev-ant-razavi-board-2023-2","sourceRole":"primary","support":"context","locator":"Third paragraph","passage":"The announcement names Razavi, of Spark Capital, among the board's existing members on 29 May 2024.","passageType":"paraphrase","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Candidate pack passage, lab genealogy (research/lab-genealogy). The paraphrase’s verbatim anchor “Yasmin Razavi from Spark Capital” matched the retrieved text on 2026-10-15 and again in a fresh retrieval the same day. Read directly from the publisher. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, apostrophes, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. The paraphrase is Selekoa’s; only the anchor is the source’s wording. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"lg-ev-ant-razavi-board-2023-3","sourceRole":"primary","support":"context","locator":"Section “Governance”, list “Anthropic Board of Directors”","passage":"The board list on the page retrieved 2026-10-15 names Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Yasmin Razavi, Reed Hastings, Chris Liddell and Vas Narasimhan.","passageType":"paraphrase","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Candidate pack passage, lab genealogy (research/lab-genealogy). The paraphrase’s verbatim anchor “Yasmin Razavi, Reed Hastings, Chris Liddell” matched the retrieved text on 2026-10-15 and again in a fresh retrieval the same day. Read directly from the publisher. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, apostrophes, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. The paraphrase is Selekoa’s; only the anchor is the source’s wording. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"lg-ev-ant-muehlhauser-board-departure-2024","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"Third paragraph, final sentence","passage":"has decided to step down from his Board role to focus on his work at Open Philanthropy","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Candidate pack passage, lab genealogy (research/lab-genealogy). The quotation (17 words) matched the retrieved text on 2026-10-15 and again in a fresh retrieval the same day. Read directly from the publisher. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, apostrophes, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-16/17) re-read the record’s sources and agreed with the record. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"lg-ev-ant-cuellar-cgao-announced-2026","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"First paragraph","passage":"will join Anthropic as its first Chief Global Affairs Officer","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Candidate pack passage, lab genealogy (research/lab-genealogy). The quotation (10 words) matched the retrieved text on 2026-10-15 and again in a fresh retrieval the same day. Read directly from the publisher. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, apostrophes, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"lg-ev-goo-uszkoreit-cofounded-inceptive","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"Paragraph with Uszkoreit's quotation","passage":"said Jakob Uszkoreit, Inceptive co-founder and CEO","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Candidate pack passage, lab genealogy (research/lab-genealogy). The quotation (7 words) matched the retrieved text on 2026-10-15 and again in a fresh retrieval the same day. Read directly from the publisher. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, apostrophes, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"ev-cmp-faif-2026-d3-safeguards-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF p. 6, second §2.3 'Safety mitigations', first sentence (opening)","passage":"xAI implements appropriate safety mitigations to address the systemic risks stemming from our models","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Verbatim excerpt checked by an automated research assistant on 2026-10-15 against the publisher copy, whose SHA-256 matches the copy retrieved on 2026-10-15. Human editorial review is pending."},{"id":"ev-cmp-faif-2026-d3-safeguards-2","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF p. 7 (no printed page numbers), §2.4 Security mitigations, first paragraph, first sentence","passage":"xAI will maintain a documented Security Goal that identifies the threat actors against which mitigations are designed to protect against, including sophisticated non-state actors, insider threats, state-sponsored actors and other foreseeable actors.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-15","note":"Existing dataset passage for this edition, which contains the comparison’s shorter quotation, first checked on 2026-10-03. The comparison’s quotation was checked by an automated research assistant on 2026-10-15 against the publisher copy, whose SHA-256 matches the copy retrieved on 2026-10-15. Human editorial review is pending."},{"id":"evidence-ap-carl-benedikt-frey-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF text layer, first two pages: author name on the title page or first page","passage":"Carl Benedikt Frey","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-27","note":"Credited name checked by an automated research assistant on 2026-10-27 in a direct retrieval and checked by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-10-27. Human editorial review is pending.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ap-avi-goldfarb-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"Page head: author byline","passage":"Avi Goldfarb","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-27","note":"Credited name checked by an automated research assistant on 2026-10-27 in a direct retrieval. Human editorial review is pending.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ap-christopher-mckinstry-mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"Message header, sender name (address not reproduced)","passage":"Credited as “Christopher McKinstry” (message header, sender name (address not reproduced)).","passageType":"paraphrase","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-27","note":"Credited name checked by an automated research assistant on 2026-10-27 in a direct retrieval and checked by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-10-27. Given as a labelled paraphrase because the source records no document length against which a quotation can be checked. Human editorial review is pending.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"ev-cmp-fsf-v3-1-d1-cyber-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF p. 5 (printed p. 5), §1.3.1 Risk Identification, fourth sentence","passage":"The edition says Google DeepMind has determined, on early research, that significant or severe risks from future models may be likeliest in CBRN, cyber, harmful manipulation, and in “machine learning R&D and misalignment”.","passageType":"paraphrase","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-27","note":"Explicit paraphrase, written on 2026-10-27 by an automated research assistant after re-reading the passage in the publisher copy, whose SHA-256 matches the copy retrieved on 2026-10-15. The comparison quoted the passage; it is given here as a paraphrase to keep the edition within the quotation limit. Human editorial review is pending."},{"id":"evidence-fl-intl-g7-code-transparency-reports-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF p. 4, Action 3","passage":"This should include publishing transparency reports containing meaningful information for all new significant releases of advanced AI systems.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-28","note":"Candidate pack passage, frameworks to law (research/frameworks-to-law). The quotation (18 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-27 and again at admission on 2026-10-28, in a fresh retrieval whose SHA-256 equals the pack’s. Read directly from www.soumu.go.jp. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-28, item 1) re-read the record’s sources and found full support. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-fl-us-aisi-agreement-anthropic-announced-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"News release, first paragraph","passage":"announced agreements that enable formal collaboration on AI safety research, testing and evaluation with both Anthropic and OpenAI","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-28","note":"Candidate pack passage, frameworks to law (research/frameworks-to-law). The quotation (18 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-27 and again at admission on 2026-10-28, in a fresh retrieval of the same address (the page’s bytes had changed). Read directly from www.nist.gov. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-28, item 31) answered the record’s question blind from fresh retrievals and agreed with the record. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-fl-us-aisi-agreement-anthropic-announced-2","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"News release, second paragraph","passage":"receive access to major new models from each company prior to and following their public release","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-28","note":"Candidate pack passage, frameworks to law (research/frameworks-to-law). The quotation (16 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-27 and again at admission on 2026-10-28, in a fresh retrieval of the same address (the page’s bytes had changed). Read directly from www.nist.gov. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-28, item 31) answered the record’s question blind from fresh retrievals and agreed with the record. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-ev-usaisi-claude35-bio-result-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"'Biological Capabilities' section, key findings, first bullet","passage":"US AISI evaluated the upgraded Sonnet 3.5 on a set of multiple-choice research task questions, and performance was comparable to reference models and significantly below measured human expert baselines in most instances.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-30","note":"Candidate pack passage, AI and biosecurity (research/ai-bio). The quotation (32 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-28 and again at admission on 2026-10-30, in a fresh retrieval (SHA-256 8e9a0960ed43d37fa5d161337886069510323506e77889b1301eb294c16e4b90; the bytes differ from the pack’s retrieval). Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-30, item 18) re-read the record’s sources and found full support. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-ev-usaisi-claude35-bio-result-2","sourceRole":"primary","support":"context","locator":"'Biological Capabilities' section, note preceding the key findings","passage":"these findings are based on US AISI's testing only, as UK AISI is not publishing its findings in this domain at this time","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-30","note":"Candidate pack passage, AI and biosecurity (research/ai-bio). The quotation (23 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-28 and again at admission on 2026-10-30, in a fresh retrieval (SHA-256 8e9a0960ed43d37fa5d161337886069510323506e77889b1301eb294c16e4b90; the bytes differ from the pack’s retrieval). Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-30, item 18) re-read the record’s sources and found full support. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-ev-chatgpt-agent-bio-evaluation-categories-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF p. 15 (printed p. 14), §4 Red Teaming, first sentence","passage":"We conducted human red teaming on two key risk areas for ChatGPT Agent: biological risk and prompt injections.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-30","note":"Candidate pack passage, AI and biosecurity (research/ai-bio). The quotation (18 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-28 and again at admission on 2026-10-30, in a fresh retrieval whose SHA-256 equals the pack’s. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-ev-claude37-uk-aisi-engagement-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","locator":"PDF p. 41, §7.4 Third Party Assessments","passage":"Under our voluntary Memorandums of Understanding, the U.S. AI Safety Institute (U.S. AISI) and U.K. AI Security Institute (U.K. AISI) conducted pre-deployment testing of Claude 3.7 Sonnet across the domains outlined in our RSP framework.","passageType":"quote","verification":"machine_checked","checkedAt":"2026-10-30","note":"Candidate pack passage, AI and biosecurity (research/ai-bio). The quotation (35 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-28 and again at admission on 2026-10-30, in a fresh retrieval whose SHA-256 equals the pack’s. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. The same passage as in the US engagement record; it is counted once against the source's quotation budget. No human editorial review.","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[1,6,7,22,27,31,52,57,96,245,251,252,279,351,357,366,370,383,423,433,466,512,513,517,521,526,527,531,534,563,566,584,585,603,688,693,734,738,831,879,883,898,1026,1049,1061,1244,1266],"claims":[8,38,223,431,683,712,995,1044,1098,1133,1289,1308,1357,1447,1492,1649,1698,1893,1972,2144,2225,2245,2288,2625,2932,2975,3370,3386,3407],"sources":[3,17,44,47,52,96,190,227,238,239,281,350,390,400,433,478,482,485,489,502,516,519,552,563,564,575,639,859,885,890,1081],"evidence":[8,40,242,463,860,891,1221,1272,1334,1375,1615,1616,1637,1695,1800,1801,1802,1803,1804,1859,1860,2077,2078,2079,2147,2444,2548,2782,2783,2872,2892,2935,3294,3790,3846,3847,4627,4628,4651,4689]},"version":"1lg47t7"}