{"entities":[{"id":"fast-or-hard-takeoff","name":"Fast or hard takeoff","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"A4","criterion":"The transition from roughly human-level to far superhuman capability happens over a short period (hours to months), or is named as a “hard” or “fast” takeoff, as opposed to a gradual transition over years or decades. A transition described only as rapid, or rapid relative to biological or historical change, without such a period, does not meet the criterion.","terms":["hard takeoff","fast takeoff"]}},{"id":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","name":"Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead","type":"document","subtype":"Essay","description":"An essay by Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, dated 2024. Year of the series; the chapter pages carry article:published_time 2024-05-29 in their metadata, which may precede public release. No dated statement was found on the pages read.","sourceIds":["source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-agi-to-superintelligence","source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-gpt4-to-agi"]},{"id":"capabilities-plateau","name":"Capabilities will plateau","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R13","criterion":"Current approaches to AI (deep learning, or the scaling of large language models) will reach limits short of general or superhuman intelligence.","terms":["hitting a wall","plateau","diminishing returns"]}},{"id":"narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths","name":"AI scaling myths","shortName":"Narayanan and Kapoor, AI scaling myths (2024)","type":"document"}],"claims":[{"id":"rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","subject":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aschenbrenner's essay of 2024 states that hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research and compress a decade of algorithmic progress into a year or less, so that AI would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman, and names this an intelligence explosion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The passage gives a year or less for compressing a decade of algorithmic progress, not a period for the whole transition, and does not name a hard or fast takeoff; no passage dating the whole transition was located."}}},{"id":"rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","subject":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aschenbrenner's essay of 2024 argues against the view that deep learning is hitting a wall, holding that trends in compute, algorithmic efficiency and 'unhobbling' make AGI by 2027 'strikingly plausible', and treats the data wall as a source of variance rather than a limit.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1","evidence-rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premises that scaling trends have stalled and that the shortage of internet data will stop progress short of AGI."}}}},{"id":"rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths","predicate":"cites","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's post of June 2024 addresses Aschenbrenner's essay of 2024, which it names, in its further-reading note.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1","evidence-rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-2"]}],"sources":[{"id":"source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-agi-to-superintelligence","documentId":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","title":"II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion","authors":["Leopold Aschenbrenner"],"publisher":"Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (situational-awareness.ai)","publicationDate":"2024","version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 6c8847073fb074ed40ab3ad4289a50d0f200bd9daeff29afeeed625c507d336b). Current chapter page, retrieved 2026-10-29. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages.","evidenceUrl":"https://situational-awareness.ai/from-agi-to-superintelligence/","language":"en"},{"id":"source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-gpt4-to-agi","documentId":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","title":"I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs","authors":["Leopold Aschenbrenner"],"publisher":"Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (situational-awareness.ai)","publicationDate":"2024","version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 9129049ea8fdc7c74585fad35e9c0b3a575affbf6651d066795b02f1500e3427). Current chapter page, retrieved 2026-10-29.","evidenceUrl":"https://situational-awareness.ai/from-gpt-4-to-agi/","language":"en"}],"evidence":[{"id":"evidence-rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1","claimId":"rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","sourceId":"source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-agi-to-superintelligence","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1","claimId":"rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","sourceId":"source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-gpt4-to-agi","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-2","claimId":"rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","sourceId":"source-rd-aschenbrenner-2024-gpt4-to-agi","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1","claimId":"rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-2","claimId":"rd-reply-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths-to-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[339,1784,1808,1884],"claims":[5177,5275,5359],"sources":[1702,1703],"evidence":[6888,7058,7059,7199,7200]},"index":{"byClaim":[["rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness",["propositions:superintelligence","propositions:risk-debate"]],["rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness",["propositions:risk-debate"]]],"marks":[],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":31},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":71},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":49},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":27,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":62},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":39},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":30},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":12,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":57,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":11,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":7,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":17,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":46,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":54,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":22,"ideas":122,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":128,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":8,"ideas":158,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":10,"governance":19,"ideas":175,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":177,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":217,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":5,"compute":7,"institutions":23,"people":51,"governance":179,"ideas":389},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":12,"compute":19,"governance":282,"people":80,"ideas":178,"institutions":28},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":547,"compute":69,"capital":34,"people":90,"institutions":18,"ideas":178},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":442,"capital":8,"compute":32,"institutions":21,"ideas":91,"people":107},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":9},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022","claimIds":["rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI","claimIds":["rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","rd-r13-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"131evrz"}