{"entities":[{"id":"ai-extinction-risk","name":"Risk of extinction or comparable catastrophe","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R07","criterion":"Advanced AI poses a risk of human extinction or of a comparable, irreversible global catastrophe, large enough to warrant priority among the problems facing humanity.","terms":["existential risk","risk of extinction","x-risk"]}},{"id":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","name":"Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards","type":"document","subtype":"Journal article","description":"A journal article by Nick Bostrom, Journal of Evolution and Technology, dated March 2002. The journal page is headed \"Journal of Evolution and Technology Vol. 9 - March 2002\"; the author's reformatted PDF says \"First version: 2001\" and its acknowledgements mention an earlier version presented in April 2001.","sourceIds":["source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks"]},{"id":"loss-of-control-route","name":"Existential risk from misalignment or loss of control","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R08","criterion":"Advanced AI systems pursuing goals at odds with human interests could escape human control and cause human extinction or permanent human disempowerment, without any person intending that outcome.","terms":["loss of control","rogue AI","misaligned AI","disempowerment"]}},{"id":"misuse-route","name":"Catastrophic risk from misuse","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R09","criterion":"People's deliberate use of advanced AI, for example to develop weapons of mass destruction, to attack critical systems, or to seize or entrench power, could cause catastrophe at the scale of mass casualties or worse.","terms":["misuse","malicious use","bad actors"]}}],"claims":[{"id":"rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","subject":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of March 2002 defines existential risks as risks that would annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently curtail its potential, lists a badly programmed superintelligence among them, and argues that the subject merits very serious attention even at a probability of about 1%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2","evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2001-04","note":"The acknowledgements say an earlier version was presented at the Foresight Institute's Senior Associates Gathering, April 2001; that version does not date the quoted wording."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","subject":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of March 2002 states that the earliest superintelligent entity humans create might be given mistaken goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, giving the example of a subgoal elevated to a supergoal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","evidence-rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2001-04","note":"An earlier version was presented in April 2001 (acknowledgements); it does not date the quoted wording."}}}},{"id":"rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","subject":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of March 2002 states that a small group in control of the initial superintelligence could conceivably select its goals and form a world government reflecting only the idiosyncratic values of its owners or designers, which, depending on those values, the paper would count as an existential catastrophe (a \"shriek\").","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","evidence-rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2001-04","note":"An earlier version was presented in April 2001 (acknowledgements); it does not date the quoted wording."}}}}],"sources":[{"id":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","documentId":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","title":"Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards","authors":["Nick Bostrom"],"publisher":"Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 9 (jetpress.org)","publicationDate":"2002-03","version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 2b18c3db8df16008ac27ccdbdaacffbcb6d2a99e3b803d14c03f2a5ccb9dd3c3). HTML article as served by the journal at jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html, headed \"Vol. 9 - March 2002\"; the text layer shows some mis-encoded punctuation. The author's site also serves a later reformatted PDF (\"First version: 2001\"), not used for quotation. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes.","evidenceUrl":"https://jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html","language":"en"}],"evidence":[{"id":"evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","claimId":"rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2","claimId":"rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-3","claimId":"rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","claimId":"rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2","claimId":"rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","claimId":"rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2","claimId":"rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","sourceId":"source-rd-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[1773,1798,1865,1878],"claims":[5194,5201,5219],"sources":[1715],"evidence":[6922,6923,6924,6933,6934,6965,6966]},"index":{"byClaim":[["rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks",["propositions:risk-debate"]],["rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks",["propositions:risk-debate"]],["rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks",["propositions:risk-debate"]]],"marks":[["bostrom-2002-existential-risks",[{"collectionId":"risk-debate","propositionId":"loss-of-control-route","claimId":"rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI for R08 Existential risk from misalignment or loss of control"},{"collectionId":"risk-debate","propositionId":"misuse-route","claimId":"rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI for R09 Catastrophic risk from misuse"}]]],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":31},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":71},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":49},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":27,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":62},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":39},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":30},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":12,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":57,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":11,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":7,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":17,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":46,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":54,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":22,"ideas":122,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":128,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":8,"ideas":158,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":10,"governance":19,"ideas":175,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":177,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":217,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":5,"compute":7,"institutions":23,"people":51,"governance":179,"ideas":389},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":12,"compute":19,"governance":282,"people":80,"ideas":178,"institutions":28},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":547,"compute":69,"capital":34,"people":90,"institutions":18,"ideas":178},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":442,"capital":8,"compute":32,"institutions":21,"ideas":91,"people":107},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":9},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI","claimIds":["rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"131evrz"}